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My first losing day for ages with -61 points. Whatuthink ran poorly, might have gone off a bit too fast, but beaten some way out. Not surprised, with his dramatic drift (touched 7/1). Did he have a bad trip to the course? Did someone know things weren’t right? What U Think?
I’m beginning to sound like Prof. 
Can’t win ’em all.
Thought Un Beau Martin might get a bit back but tipped up two out. Commentator seemed to to think he’d have won, I’m not so sure.
Value Is Everything1:40 Catterick
26 points each way @ 11/2 (VC) Dystonia’s Revenge* (min 5/1)Value Is EverythingAgain, VC shortened the horse up immediately I backed it but still available with Paddy.
Value Is Everything1:40 Catterick
26 points each way @ 11/2 (VC) Dystonia’s Revenge* (min 5/1)Looks like I might have got this race a bit wrong. DR out to 8/1.
Looking at it again I somehow missed the fact he’d been upped 4 lbs, since last time out. 8/1 is far too big but am not going to advise another bet (you should have bog).A saver:
15 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Ballyoliver (min 4/1) (£52 available)Value Is EverythingYour comment on Dystonias Revenge makes me think you lean to pricing the market to what you think it will be not what you think it should be?
FWIW, Dystonias Revenege is always weak in the market anyway, only got off a single figure price 3 times, I put it up in my thread last year at 12/1 I think, went off 22/1 and won, was rather fortuitous I must admit.
12:50 Newbury
22 points each way @ 7/1 (PP) Balbriggan* (min 6/1)Value Is EverythingYour comment on Dystonias Revenge makes me think you lean to pricing the market to what you think it will be not what you think it should be?
What is your reasoning tb?
Of course punters need to work out races on what they "think it should be", otherwise they won’t get value and therefore won’t make a profit.
Don’t I make a big enough profit? I’m puzzled as to your thinking.As I said, missed out DR being upped in the handicap, an elementary mistake I know, but I am not perfect.
Punters are often wary of conditionals claiming 7 lbs, which explains the horse usually being weak in the market. Must admit I was also unaware she’s always switched off at the back to that extent too. Held up is one thing, that was bleedin’ foolhardy. Relying on the others to go off too quick and come back to her. Didn’t make much effort to get closer at any stage. I know she isn’t a pro, but even inexperienced riders should do better than that. I like backing conditionals and amateurs against the pros as their chance is often under-estimated; however, think I over-estimated the talents of this trainer/jockey combination.
Thought my saver was going to get me out of trouble, just didn’t jump well enough in the closing stages. Ballyoliver is the one that might improve next time.Value Is EverythingI don’t think there is anything to puzzling about it, you said you thought you may have it wrong because it was a fair bit bigger than your price expectation, hence my question.
There is a big difference to pricing what it should be and what people think it will be, your line the other day with Elenika was interesting because for me he was a 9/2 chance, would have been if he wasn’t stabled by Nicholls, masked the fact the horse was very ordinary and seemingly already exposed. Had I been asked what price do I think that horse will be and what do I think it should be, I would have given you two different prices.
Anyway I don’t dispute what you do Ginge just that quote intrigued me a bit
2:25 Newbury
67 points @ 11/8 (VC) Rose Of The Moon* (min 11/8)Value Is Everything2:25 Newbury
67 points @ 11/8 (VC) Rose Of The Moon* (min 11/8)5 points @ 14/1 (SJ) Stoneys Treasure (min 12/1)
Value Is EverythingAre you off to Newbury today Ginger? How well attended is the Greatwood meeting in feb/march? think will make the drive to it this time around
Are you off to Newbury today Ginger? How well attended is the Greatwood meeting in feb/march? think will make the drive to it this time around
Back from Newbury yes tb. Being pre-Cheltenham it is not great quality for a Saturday but that just means more room.
Let me know if you decide to come tb.
Value Is EverythingLong Walk Hurdle
68 points @ 5/2 (Sporting) Smad Place* (min 2/1Value Is Everything3:05 Ascot
52 points @ 9/4 (b365) Spanish Arch (min 85/40)13 points @ 4/1 (FD) Farmer Matt (min 4/1)
Value Is Everything
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