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Ginge, can you explain the First Lieutenant? He doesn’t look good enough or experienced enough to beat Long Run let alone half a dozen others like Sir Deschamps or Al Ferof or Flemenstar. Obviously the odds are implying a 4% chance but I don’t see FL having even a 2% chance.
Ginge, can you explain the First Lieutenant? He doesn’t look good enough or experienced enough to beat Long Run let alone half a dozen others like Sir Deschamps or Al Ferof or Flemenstar. Obviously the odds are implying a 4% chance but I don’t see FL having even a 2% chance.
I’m with Ginge, let’s just wait and see in March
3:15 Newbury
47 points @ 9/2 (VC) Bless The Wings* (min 4/1)16 points @ 3/1 (VC) The Knoxs (min 3/1)
Value Is EverythingGinge, can you explain the First Lieutenant? He doesn’t look good enough or experienced enough to beat Long Run let alone half a dozen others like Sir Deschamps or Al Ferof or Flemenstar. Obviously the odds are implying a 4% chance but I don’t see FL having even a 2% chance.
2%
If that’s the case what chance do you think Bobs Worth has of winning the Gold Cup Kasparov? BW is now 8/1. FL finished 2nd, just 2 1/2 lengths behind BW in the RSA; the two some 11 lengths clear. We know both horses have a fantastic record at Cheltenham, BW also winning the 3 mile hurdle there the previous year, FL the 2 1/2 mile novice hurdle (beating subsequent Champion Hurdle winner Rock On Ruby). Course form is very important, both could be thought of as course specialists. Whatever they achieve elsewhere are likely to do better around Prestbury Park. If anything FL has the more physical scope too, being a big sort. Both horses are 7 year olds (8 come March) so not yet at their peak. Both should be suited by an increased test of stamina the extra trip brings. Both bred for the distance; FL possibly more so, being by Presenting, same sire as trainer Mouse Morris’s Gold Cup winner War Of Attrition (and Denman); with stamina also in the female line. We know he acts equally well on good ground and soft (may be not heavy but that’s unlikely).
Some may be put off by a less than spectacular recent strike rate, but has much better "form" than "form figures" suggest. Since Cheltenham he’s had excuses of trip anyway, final start last year and first run this. Then last time out a good 2nd, just touched off by Kauto Stone. Bound to do better than that over an extra 2 1/2 furlongs and stiffer course that he loves. There’s also the fact there’s no Kauto, Denman, Imperial(?), so the standard needed to win this year’s renewal is probably not as high as those years (or Long Run’s winning standard, who I doubt will ever come back to his best).
In my opinion FL is only 25/1 because people are worried he might go for the owner sponsered Ryanair; Gigginstown also having the favourite for the Gold Cup Sir Des Champs. But imo they’d be crazy to run FL there. Bigger the stamina test the better he’s been. Just wouldn’t be fast enough… Without that worry I think he’d be half today’s price. If as expected, FL runs well on Saturday then there’s virtually no chance he’ll go back in trip at Cheltenham.Bobs Worth has a better chance than First Lieutenent, but is 8/1 up against 25/1 of the selection. Surely the two should not be that far apart? In my opinion it’s around 10% BW, 7% FL (fair 14/1 chance) so yes Kasparov, better than 4% and worth a punt at the price.
Of the ones you speak of Kasparov: Sir Des Champs has a better chance than his owner companion, but at this stage 6/1 is ridiculous. May well improve in to a top class racehorse, but the price is that of one already proven to be top class. Of the two horses FL has much more "experience" too, so don’t see how you can knock the selection for that. Flemenstar has potential but has no Cheltenham – or English "experience" come to that and much more likely (imo) to go for the Ryanair. As indeed is Al Ferof, who may not stay the trip if going for the Blue Riband.
Besides, I’ve heard another great judge likes FL for the race too.
Value Is EverythingHennessey Gold Cup
33 points @ 14/1 (WH) First Lieutenent* (min 17/2)24 points @ 13/1 (betfair) The Package* (min 11/1) (£450 available)
Value Is Everything2:35 Newbury
28 points @ 7/1 (PP) Princely Player* (min 13/2)22 points @ 9/1 (FD) Scots Gaelic* (min 17/2)
Couple of savers to come on this race.
Value Is Everything2:35 Newbury
28 points @ 7/1 (PP) Princely Player* (min 13/2)22 points @ 9/1 (FD) Scots Gaelic* (min 17/2)
Couple of savers to come on this race.
11 points @ 13/2 (Sporting) At Fishers Cross (min 6/1)
Value Is Everything2:35 Newbury
28 points @ 7/1 (PP) Princely Player* (min 13/2)22 points @ 9/1 (FD) Scots Gaelic* (min 17/2)
Couple of savers to come on this race.
11 points @ 13/2 (Sporting) At Fishers Cross (min 6/1)
And a partial saver:
15 points @ 3/1 (FD) Ardlui (min 3/1)Value Is EverythingHennessey Gold Cup
33 points @ 14/1 (WH) First Lieutenent* (min 17/2)24 points @ 13/1 (betfair) The Package* (min 11/1) (£450 available)
8 points @ 9/1 (FD) Hold On Julio (min 9/1)
Value Is EverythingHennessey Gold Cup
33 points @ 14/1 (WH) First Lieutenent* (min 17/2)24 points @ 13/1 (betfair) The Package* (min 11/1) (£450 available)
8 points @ 9/1 (FD) Hold On Julio (min 9/1)
4 points @ 22/1 (betfair) Magnanimity (£45 available)
11 points @ 9/2 (sporting) Bobs WorthValue Is Everything3:40 Newbury
28 points @ 12/1 (PP) Fiftyonefiftyone* (min 9/1)Value Is Everything3:40 Newbury
28 points @ 12/1 (PP) Fiftyonefiftyone* (min 9/1)32 points @ 9/2 (VC) Ulck Du Lin* (min 9/2)
7 points @ 12/1 (WH) Oh Crick (min 11/1)
Value Is EverythingFive winners from six races for me this weekend (if including a saver and partial saver. Only one to "let me down" was a 25/1 shot.
Swincome Flame (loser), Bless The Wings, At Fishers Cross (saver), Bobs Worth (partial saver), Ulck Du Lin, Jezki.
Things are going well again.
Value Is Everything
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