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JNWine Chase Chase Down Royal
40 points @ 11/4 (Corals) Quito De La RoqueAnother:
8 points @ 3/1 (Corals) Quito De La Roque
8 points @ 6/1 (PP) Midnight ChaseValue Is EverythingJNWine Chase Chase Down Royal
40 points @ 11/4 (Corals) Quito De La RoqueAnother:
8 points @ 3/1 (Corals) Quito De La Roque
8 points @ 6/1 (PP) Midnight ChaseA further:
2 points @ 6/1 (PP) Midnight Chase
12 points @ 5/1 (WH) The NightingaleValue Is EverythingJNWine Chase Chase Down Royal
40 points @ 11/4 (Corals) Quito De La RoqueAnother:
8 points @ 3/1 (Corals) Quito De La Roque
8 points @ 6/1 (PP) Midnight ChaseA further:
2 points @ 6/1 (PP) Midnight Chase
12 points @ 5/1 (WH) The NightingaleWant to be against both Boston Angel and Sizing Europe. Not saying they won’t win, just poor value. Former has obvious qualities, genuine and consistent battler. But RSA didn’t take much winning this year, with Time For Rupert ill. Four horses finishing within 1 1/4 lengths, had Boston Angel been third or fourth there (just a pound or two worse on form) he’d be a far greater price here.
Sizing Europe seems a Spring Horse these days and lucky winner last time out when Rubi Light fell. Didn’t need to be anywhere near his best to beat Coolcashin (who’s again outclassed here). Although stays three miles is probably best at two. Soft ground will place even more emphasis on stamina.The more it rains the better, the more a test of stamina, the beter for
Midnight Chase
. Progressive form up until the Gold Cup. Neil Mullholland’s front runner should run well and 6/1 looks good value if fit.
Quito De La Roque
looks the most likely of these to develop in to a Gold Cup contender. Still developing in to his frame. Stays very well and it’s good there’s a staying front runner in there to make it a test. Also a good sign of fitness that connections chose this instead of an easier option on the card. Although beaten by Boston Angel has improved since, winnng at both Aintree (despite a bad mistake) and Punchestown.
Rare Bob isn’t far behind most of these on form, but is more exposed and it would be disappointing as a race if he were good enough to win. Another likely to be somewhere near the front.
The Nightingale
is interesting, hasn’t run since pulled up in the King George from a reported heart problem. Normally that would be a big concern, but won on this card on previous start and goes extremely well fresh. One possible negative is distance, yet to prove he stays 3 miles. Not stopping when winning at 2m4f and is by Cadoudal, sire of both last year’s Gold Cup and Stayers Hurdle winners. Stable in good form.
My 100% book for soft ground:
9/4 Quito De La Roque
,
4/1 The Nightingale
,
5/1 Midnight Chase
, 11/2 Boston Angel, Sizing Europe 6/1, Rare Bob 28/1, Coolcashin 132/1.
Value Is Everything3:20 Wincanton
20 points @ 9/1 (FD) Benbane Head
25 points @ 9/1 (FD) Gone To Lunch
18 points @ 12/1 (L) CheckerboardValue Is Everything3:20 Wincanton
20 points @ 9/1 (FD) Benbane Head
25 points @ 9/1 (FD) Gone To Lunch
18 points @ 12/1 (L) CheckerboardGone To Lunch
is 11 years old, bit of a thinker, possibly better on firmer ground and over further, yet still looks a good bet at 9/1. Couldn’t put one foot in front of another last season. However, won a handicap on reappearance at this track (at 3m4f). Put up quite a bit and needs to improve on that form here. But he’s still thrown in on form of a couple of seasons ago and stable are in unbelievable shape. Jeremy Scott has won in 7 of his last 8 races including 28/1, 12/1, 8/1 and 6/1. There’s plenty of pace here and hopefully they’ll make it a test at the trip.
Benbane Head
has been doing well at around 2 1/2 miles recently, staying on strongly each time. Winner at 3m1f around Cheltenham back in October 2009 and there might be more improvement back at this trip if it’s not too soft. If this horse was trained by a top trainer he’d be quite a bit shorter. Keighley is in good form, winning 4 of his last 10 completed starts.
Checkerboard
‘s trainer F O’Brien (is it Fergal?) is also in good form with 2 wins and 5 placed from last 14 runners. Moved from Howard Johnson since last time, good second at Aintree back in June over this trip. Looks of better temperament on recent starts. Despite being an eight year old had just 15 runs (with 26.67% strike rate) so there might be more improvement to come.
There’s not much wrong with The Minack other than price. Should stay this trip, out of Irish Grand National winner Ebony Jane. Pulled up in Scottish version last time. Lightly raced, won first two starts over fences, then poor third when blundered badly in Reynoldstown. Won first two races last term (winner of 5 of his 9 races). Hasn’t raced in many big fields.
Friend of mine used to own a share in Golan Way, an admirable, genuine front runner. Course winner on only second season over fences. Good third to Quito De La Roque at Aintree on final start last season and has won first time out before. Whether he’ll stay this far in a truly run race on soft ground is questionable and his jumping is possibly best when able to dictate. Plenty of other prominent runners who might take him on here.
Meanas Dandy’s win in this came on firmer ground when blinkered for the first time and hasn’t produced it since. Looks untrustworthy.
Alderluck may look well handicapped, but his best is probably when leading and may be taken on. I have doubts about whether his jumping will stand up to this test.
Richard’s Sundance’s trainer Victor Dartnell is in very good form at the moment, but like quite a few of his chasers doesn’t usually jump that well. Richard’s Sundance has a chance on his second at Cheltenham but as I know to my cost, can’t be trusted.
Madison Du Berlais would be a certainty if coming back to form of two years ago, highly unlikely. Although won Hennessey way back when, I get the impression is best dictating in small fields these days. Unlikely to get his own way tomorrow.
Estates Recovery has been in good form for his amateur rider this summer. However, is another prominent runner, can hit one and probably best on softer ground.
The Rainbow Hunter is interesting, moved from Andrew Turnell to Kim Bailey. Possibly the best of the outsiders. His usual 7lb claimer takes the ride, is (I believe) a relation of the owner.
It’s asking a lot for Dover’s Hill to come back with a win after blundering away his chance on reappearance at the second fence. Made just about all in a couple of 4 runner novice chases last back end. Not easy to know what those races are worth in terms of form.
Qulinton ran poorly last time out, difficult to see him figuring.
Hello Bud is a veteren teenager, genuine prominent runner who’s thouroughly exposed. Probably having a siter for the Beecher that he won last year.
My 100% Book:
6/1 The Minack,6/1 Gone To Lunch, 13/2 Benbane Head, 8/1 Checkerboard,
10/1 Golan Way, 14/1 The Rainbow Hunter, 16/1 Estates Recovery, 16/1 Alderluck, 18/1 Richard’s sundance, 18/1 Meanas Dandy, 40/1 Dover’s Hill, 40/1 Madison Du Berlais, 66/1 Hello Bud, 66/1 Qulinton.
Value Is EverythingPaddy Power Gold Cup
28 points @ 15/2 (PP) Wishful Thinking
15 points each way (1/4 first four) @ 14/1 (SJ) Great EndeavourValue Is EverythingFirst two bets of this season.
It seems to me bookmakers are still to react to the new mid distance novice chase at the Festival. Am convinced it pulls horses away from the big two if there’s a stand out candidate.
Very few potential novice chasers have ever had better hurdling ratings as Peddlers Cross and Grand Crus, yet they aren’t priced that much shorter than others. Must surely have a better than 12.5% and 11.1% (respectively) chance? Albeit there’s a chance they might switch back to smaller obstacles if things don’t go as planned. But if they’re not good enough in this field there’s little point in continuing anyway. If just one turns up at a price shorter than 100/30 then I’ve got value. Both horses go on both soft and good ground. Cheltenham never gets firm these days.
2012 Arkle Chase Cheltenham
40 points @ 7/1 (b365 bog) Peddlers Cross2012 RSA Chase Cheltenham
38 points @ 8/1 (b365) Grand Crus12 points @ 6/1 (L) Grands Crus
Amazed at Ladbrokes price.
Will scare many novices on to the Jewson. And with Peddler’s Cross in the Arkle, there is little chance of Pipe’s grey coming down in trip.Value Is EverythingPaddy Power Gold Cup
28 points @ 15/2 (PP) Wishful Thinking
15 points each way (1/4 first four) @ 14/1 (SJ) Great EndeavourSavers:
4 points @ 20/1 (betfair) Arulder
3 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Tullamore Dew
1 point @ 74/1 Holmwood LegendValue Is Everything1:55 Cheltenham
16 points each way @ 12/1 (L) Hennessey
11 points each way @ 16/1 (VC) Hey Big SpenderValue Is EverythingPaddy Power Gold Cup
28 points @ 15/2 (PP) Wishful Thinking
15 points each way (1/4 first four) @ 14/1 (SJ) Great EndeavourSavers:
4 points @ 20/1 (betfair) Arulder
3 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Tullamore Dew
1 point @ 74/1 Holmwood LegendAfter opposing Mon Parrain, he’s now gone out to a backable price so another saver:
13 points @ 5/1 (L) Mon Parrain
Value Is Everything4:10 Cheltenham
Saver bet first:
25 points @ 15/8 (VC) Restless HarryValue Is Everything4:10 Cheltenham
Saver bet first:
25 points @ 15/8 (VC) Restless Harry32 points @ 4/1 (WH) Saint Are
Value Is EverythingWill go down the runners with a few words on each.
Poquelin: Pulled too hard last time at 3 miles and didn’t stay. Should be back to form for a stable firing in winners but is thoroughly exposed at the top of the handicap. Goes well at Cheltenham. Easy to see him running well, but not winning.
Wishfull Thinking
: Already top class and still improving. Produced an excellent weight carrying performance last time out in Ireland in July. Also impressive winner of Cheltenham handicap. Capable of maintaining high cruising speed. There are other pace setters but is worth a bet at early prices.
Oiseau Du Nuit: Goes well for an inexperienced rider and good conditional Master Brendan Powell takes off 10 lbs. Ran well enough on reappearance at Exeter. Best form in truly run races at 2 miles. Doubtful stayer.
Loosen My Load: Always been well regarded by stable and thought of as a top irish novice. But looks poorly handicapped and hasn’t produced anywhere near the form to warrant his price here. Travels well but can be a weak finisher.
Mon Parrain
: Impressive winner first race for Nicholls last year. Then went to Aintree and jumped those big fences immaculately. However, despite going supremely well over the last in a clear lead, caught on the run-in. Walsh seemed at pains to look after Mon Parrain there and just a question in my mind about his temperament. Does have bags of potential though and the late drift has been an over-reaction. 5/1 looks worth a saver at least.
Great Endeavour
loves Cheltenham. Murphy got the award from me for worst ride of the season last year in the 3 mile handicap. Got him caught at the back of the field at the start. Slowly away and rushed around the field despite a very strong gallop. Remarkably Great Endeavour kept his place until falling two out. Hard race and understandably ran poorly at Aintree. Equally effective at 2m4f or 3 miles. Seemed to need this race last year, but has run well fresh before. Stable had treble yesterday. 12/1 looks a good each way price.
Dave’s Dream seems either hard to keep sound or goes sour after a run. But this is his reappearance so should be AOK. Has impeccable record first time out and trainer in excellent fettle. Dave’s Dream has good Cheltenham form at 2 miles. However, travels well at that trip when on song, so there’s a doubt about stamina.
Holmwood Legend
won at the festival before again running well at this track, chasing home Poquelin in the Silver Trophy when carrying overweight. Trained last year by Pat Rodford who’s still there helping his ex-jockey Kieran Burke who’s made a promising start to his career. If Holmwood Legend is fit looks best of the outsiders and warrants at least a saver.
The Giant Bolster seems to have improved jumping and temperament for cheek pieces on reappearance. But whether that continues remains to be seen. Has needed plenty of stoking up in the past. Stable has started this campaign in terrific form.
Finger On The Pulse: Won last time but is inconsistent these days. Trainer has had a very poor record since Kicking King. Finger On The Pulse is an ex-Festival winner, but now 10 years old and exposed. Difficult to see him winning.
Calgary Bay is another exposed sort, although better handicapped on the Doncaster win of a couple of seasons ago. One of the best looking horses in training. Don’t like backing horses who fell in Grand National on previous start, even if he’s usually a good jumper.
Araldur
: I backed ante-post for the Arkle in his novice year before going wrong. Given a long time to get over that and kept to hurdles last year, winning two. Travelled well for a long way on reappearance when behind Fistral Beach. Should come on for that; hasn’t had much racing over fences and potential for further improvement. 16/1 is too big to ignore.
Noble Alan has a habit of falling / unseating in closing stages. Particularly unlucky last time. Also did so in a valuable Cheltenham handicap. Too far out to know how he’d have fared, going well at the time. Has a good chance on form. But Cheltenham takes plenty of jumping.
Quantitativeeasing palpably failed to stay in Irish National last time. Most form around this trip and ran well in novice handicap at Festival here. Has potential to win a big handicap this term. Trainer in excellent form, but Daves Dream more fancied. If he were in A1 condition I’d expect his owner to back him down to much shorter than his current price.
Swincombe Rock is 4lb out of the handicap and looks too exposed to defy it. May need further.
Aerial won very easily on first run for Nicholls at Wincanton in February. Handicapper punished him for that. Only one other run in April and reportedly has had breathing operation. Lightly raced and obvious potential to improve, but needs to.
Tullamore Dew
was third in a Festival handicap and a thoroughly genuine type. Reasonable reappearance over hurdles. Out of the handicap but is a gradual improver. One of the better outsiders and worthy of a saver.
Divers was a similar type to Tullamore Dew, won that Cheltenham Festival handicap. Looked progressive but very poor reappearance (friendless in betting). Pushed along some way out and pulled up when stable in awful form. Now a lot better but asking a lot even for Ferdy to turn it around in one go. Best to keep an eye on the market.
Billie Magern won a small race last time, making all. This will be a lot tougher and other front runners to take him on here.
Fine Parchment ran well enough first time up, admirable sort these days but probably too exposed to defy overweight.
Value Is EverythingRyanair Chase
19 points @ 12/1 (b365) Wishful ThinkingCouldn’t resist
Value Is Everything2:20 Cheltenham
33 points @ 5/1 (WH) Pateese
23 points @ 15/2 (SJ) Moon DiceValue Is Everything
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