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For the record, I think you mean Shotgun Paddy. Also I notice some selections are starred and some not. Is that significant?
For the record, I think you mean Shotgun Paddy. Also I notice some selections are starred and some not. Is that significant?
That’s him Kasparov.
I know some punters don’t like too many bets and/or aren’t interested in savers, so have "starred" my "main bets".
Value Is EverythingTriumph Hurdle
38 points @ 8/1 (L) Peace And Co* (min 13/2)16 points @ 6/1 (L) Peace And Co* (min 5/1)
saver:
6 points @ 10/1 (L) Hargam (min 8/1)6 points @ 16/1 (L) Beltor (min 12/1)
Value Is EverythingChampion Chase Cheltenham
60 points @ 6/1 (Boyle) Dodging Bullets* (min 9/2)
I’ve also got a bet on Balder Success somewhere but looks more likely to go for Ryanair at this stage.15 points @ 9/2 (WH) Sire De Grugy* (min 4/1)
Value Is EverythingGrand National
Already backed:
19 points @ 25/1 (B365) Teaforthree* (min 20/1)
27 points @ 12/1 (FD) Shutthefrontdoor* (min 10/1)
19 points @ 25/1 (L) Balthazar King* (min 20/1)
11 points @ 50/1 (L) The Druids Nephew* (min 40/1)
Now another:
6 points @ 37/1 (betfair) Teaforthree* (min 20/1)(£167 available)saver bet (as yet):
3 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Many Clouds (min 40/1)(£70 available)
If he becomes a probable runner will go in again, owner’s comments very encouraging.saver:
10 points @ 14/1 (Generally) Rocky Creek (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingWorld Hurdle
Got an ante-post bet on More Of That somewhere.
But here’s one that still might run:21 points each way @ 20/1 (FD, NRNB) Reve De Sivola* (min 13/1)
Value Is EverythingWorld Hurdle
Got an ante-post bet on More Of That somewhere.
But here’s one that still might run:21 points each way @ 20/1 (FD, NRNB) Reve De Sivola* (min 13/1)
31 points @ 8/1 (Sky NRNB) Rock On Ruby* (min 7/1)
Value Is EverythingRyanair Chase
40 points @ 25/1 (L) Menorah* (min 13/1)20 points @ 20/1 (Sportsbook) Ma Filleule* (min 16/1)
37 points @ 7/1 (B365) Balder Success* (min 6/1)
Value Is EverythingAlbert Bartlett
20 points each way @ 14/1 (PP) Blaklion* (min 11/1)Value Is EverythingAll my ante-post bets on one sheet…
2015 Cheltenham Ante-Post: Bets and prices put up in my thread:
Supreme Hurdle
52 points @ 9/2 (PP) Lami Surge (now best priced 4/1 in one place)
26 points @ 2/1 (Sportsbook) Douvan (now best priced 7/4 in a couple of places)Arkle Chase
27 points @ 12/1 (PP) Josses Hill (now best priced 11/1 in one place)Champion Hurdle
19 points @ 33/1 (PP) Sign Of A Victory (Non runner)
36 points each way @ 6/1 (L) Jezki (now best priced 9/2)RSA Chase
28 points @ 12/1 (PP) Kings Palace (now best priced 9/2)Champion Chase
24 points @ 16/1 (SJ) Balder Success (now best priced 18/1 bookies, unlikely runner, 79/1 betfair)
60 points @ 6/1 (Boyle) Dodging Bullets (now best priced 11/2)
15 points @ 9/2 (WH) Sire De Grugy (now best priced 100/30)Ryanair Chase
40 points @ 25/1 (L) Menorah (now 33/1 in one place bookies, 46/1 betfair, trainer says unlikely)
20 points @ 20/1 (Sportsbook) Ma Filleule (now best priced 5/1)
37 points @ 7/1 (B365 NRNB) Balder Success (now best priced 13/2)Stayers Hurdle
75 points @ 3/1 (L) More Of That (Non-runner)
21 points each way @ 20/1 (FD, NRNB) Reve De Sivola (now best priced 20/1)
31 points @ 8/1 (Sky, NRNB) Rock On Ruby (still best priced 8/1)Albert Bartlett Hurdle
20 points each way @ 14/1 (PP NRNB) Blaklion (still best priced 14/1)Triumph Hurdle
38 points @ 8/1 (L) Peace And Co (now best priced 5/2)
16 points @ 6/1 (L) Peace And Co
6 points @ 10/1 (L) Hargam (now best priced 13/2 in a couple of places)
6 points @ 16/1 (L) Beltor (now best priced 7/1)Cheltenham Gold Cup
19 points @ 25/1 (FD) Smad Place (now best priced 20/1)
21 points @ 20/1 (FD) O’Faolains Boy (Non-runner)
14 points @ 50/1 (B365) Holywell (now best priced 10/1)
24 points @ 3/1 (B365 NRNB, BOG) Silviniaco Conti (now best priced 100/30)
17 points @ 12/1 (B365 NRNB BOG) Coneygree (still best priced 12/1, not a certain runner)
10 points @ 16/1 (L, all in) Coneygree (now 15/1 on betfair)
36 points @ 100/30 (PP, NRNB, BOG) Silviniaco ContiValue Is EverythingArkle Chase
27 points @ 12/1 (PP) Josses Hill (now best priced 11/1 in one place)11 points each way @ 33/1 (FD) Court Minstrel* (min 28/1)
11 points each way @ 25/1 (SJ) Three Kingdoms* (min 22/1)Value Is EverythingHave been on Josses Hill @ 12/1 since April, before he saw a fence.
Looked a chaser in the making but unfortunately doesn’t seem to be able to jump. That said, if things do come together has more scope to make a top novice than all but the favourite. If wasn’t on already 14/1 appears a good enough price to take a chance on jumping with Henderson in good form. Goodish ground and a return to 2 miles in his favour too.Favourite Un De Sceaux should be odds on such is his ability, but he’s been a soft ground performer in Ireland and had the ability to run at Cheltenham previous years and wasn’t brought over. Said to be one that can get a bit het up beforehand. If I backed him it would need to be just before the off and after I’ve timed the first race. Genuine good going might be against him.
On form Vibrato Valtat is the obvious each way bet to nothing, but like the favourite may not be the ideal Cheltenham type temperament-wise. Hasn’t found a great deal up the hill in the past. Although betting now takes that in to account and last time out was more encouraging; albeit in a less demanding enviroment.
The rest have similar form.
Clarcam and Smashing have already been smashed by the fav, place claims but unlikely to improve significantly.
Gods Own probably has the second best form (with Balder Success) but has lost his form on very soft ground, not a bad price to bounce back on this better surface. However, is thought best right handed.
Sail By The Sea hasn’t had much racing and all on very soft ground. Needs to be far better than he was over hurdles.
Sgt Reckless has a placed effort over hurdles here, has had a sgt strange run up to this, one chase (impressive) then a hurdle and flat race. Not much chase experience, been done before but he’s no Well Chief.
Dunraven Storm has had a break after a poor effort. Some good efforts including beating Vibrato Valtat at Cheltenham, but given a good ride there (unlike the Nicholls horse). With UDS in the line up unlikely to get a soft lead here.
I’ve backed a couple of outsiders each way. Three Kingdoms ran Vibrato Valtat to 1/2 length in the Wayward Lad at Kempton. As Steve says, that horse improved since, but difference in odds is hard to fathom nonetheless. Three Kingdoms would probably have showed improved form himself without a bad mistake in straight last time. AP rides and trainer Furgeson in good form. 25/1 looks good to me.
The other is Court Minstral. Ignore the run last time out on soft ground and he’d be two from two (at a lesser level). Has top handicap hurdle form. Has more speed than many of these and could be able to lay the win part off at some stage. Hold up horse who might be able to pick up the pieces. 33/1 is too big to ignore.
My 100% Book:
Un De Sceaux 5/6, Vibrato Valtat 11/2, Josses Hill 11/1, Three Kingdoms 16/1, Court Minstrel 20/1, Sgt Reckless 33/1, Clarcam 33/1, Smashing 33/1, Gods Own 40/1, Dunraven Storm 80/1, Sail By The Sea 300/1(If it is genuinely good-soft after timing the first race and if Un De Sceaux behaves himself in the paddock and to post… He’d be more like a 1/2 shot than 5/6)
Value Is EverythingMy 100% book for the Champion Hurdle:
Faugheen 11/10, Jezki 4/1, The New One 5/1, Hurricane Fly 10/1, Arctic Fire 33/1, Vaniteaux 50/1, Kitten Rock 50/1, Bertimont 500/1
I’ve already backed him @ 6’s, but Jezki looks a cracking each way bet @ around 5/1 with straight 8 runners.
Value Is EverythingSupreme Hurdle
52 points @ 9/2 (PP) Lami Surge (now best priced 4/1 in one place)
26 points @ 2/1 (Sportsbook) Douvan (now best priced 7/4 in a couple of places)Another:
8 points @ 3.8/1 (betfair) Lami Surge* (min 3/1) (£589 available)
savers:
8 points @ 14/1 (PP) Qewy (min 13/1)
5 points @ 22/1 (PP) Alvisio Ville (min 18/1)
100 in all(I don’t make Douvan value anymore.
If you have not backed anything ante-post I suggest 63 points on Lami Surge, 19 points on Qewy and 18 points on Alvisio Ville, staking 100 in all)Value Is EverythingMy Supreme Hurdle 100% book:
Douvan 5/2, Lami Surge 5/2, Qewy 11/1, Shanehill 12/1, Jollyallan 15/1, Alvisio Ville 15/1, Tell Us More 20/1, Sizing John 33/1, Some Plan 33/1, Seedling 33/1, Bentelimar 56/1, Velvet Maker 800/1Value Is Everything2:40 3m1f Handicap Chase
31 points @ 9/1 (PP) Ned Stark* (min 15/2)
26 points @ 9/1 (PP) Druids Nephew* (min 8/1)
21 points @ 16/1 (PP) Mendip Express (min 15/1)
savers:
5 points @ 22/1 (SJ) Black Thunder (min 22/1)
5 points @ 22/1 (FD) Indian Castle (min 22/1)
3 points @ 33/1 (PP) Cape Tribulation (min 33/1)Value Is Everything
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