- This topic has 2,423 replies, 56 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 6 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
2011/2012 Season Profit +1552.85 points
2012/2013 Season Profit +4470.00 points2013/2014 Season so far +714.69 points
Total Thread Profit +6737.54 points
Added last week’s profit of +546.03 points
Value Is EverythingApologies, I was under the impression we were just talking about novices. In reality I think it is stretching things to suggest he has anything like five ‘live’ candidates.
Rubi Ball hasn’t won any of his last eleven starts and Boston Bob has won one minor race out of his last five. These two do not appear to have much forward momentum.
Ballycasey appeared to have every chance in the RSA. He doesn’t look good enough and stamina could well be an issue. I wouldn’t be surprised if he dropped in trip.
Sir Des Champs is probably the best of the four but can he improve on his second to Bobs Worth? I doubt it.
Rubi Ball may not have "won any of his last eleven starts", but was a Grade 1 3m3f winner when trained in France. Had only two runs for Mullins including splitting First Lieutenant and Sir Des Champs in the Lexus, only 2 1/2 lengths away from winner Bobs Worth. Doesn’t have to be winning form to be good form. Could yet make the grade if all is well with him.
Along with TAPK – I too backed Boston Bob for this year’s Gold Cup. Jumping went to pieces in last two starts as a novice. Sent back hurdling and did ok, though ran poorly against Big Buck’s. The first of those 5 races you talk about fell at final fence when very likely to win Lord Windermere’s RSA. Only chase start over an inadequate trip. If Mullins can get his jumping together he’s unexposed at staying trips. Although am not certain he’s a Cheltenham horse. Something that applies to Ballycasey too, who may be better in Ireland than Britain.
It depends what we call "live" candidates Stilvi. Agree, Rubi Ball, Boston Bob and Ballycasey have only an outside chance, but Djakadam isn’t any better.
On form Stilvi, Sir Des Champs would not have needed to "improve to have won this years Gold Cup.
Value Is Everything4:20 Newbury
47 points @ 5/1 (B365) Kuda Huraa (min 9/2)
21 points @ 9/4 (C) Dormello Mo (min 85/40)Value Is Everything2:40 Newbury
36 points each way @ 5/1 (B365) Ziga Boy* (min 9/2)Value Is Everything3:45 Newbury
49 points @ 7/2 (L) Farbreaga* (min 100/30)24 points @ 9/1 (VC) Twice Returned* (min 9/1
Value Is Everything3:45 Newbury
49 points @ 7/2 (L) Farbreaga* (min 100/30)24 points @ 9/1 (VC) Twice Returned* (min 9/1
saver:
21 points @ 7/2 (SJ) Ifyousayso (min 7/2)Value Is Everything5:15 Newbury
71 points @ 11/4 (SJ) Dark And Dangerous* (min 9/4)
saver:
14 points @ 6/1 (SJ) Prince Of Dreams (min 11/2)Value Is Everything2:55 Newbury
31 points @ 9/1 (VC) Free Thinking* (min 15/2)25 points @ 7/1 (Sky) Run Ructions Run* (min 13/2)
25 points @ 15.5/1 (betfair) Koolala* (min 13/1)(£26 available)
16 points @ 9/1 (VC) Lily Waugh* (min 8/1)Value Is Everything2:20 Newbury
37 points @ 6/1 (B365) Balzaccio* (min 11/2)
28 points @ 15/2 (VC) Greywell Boy* (min 7/1)Value Is Everything2:20 Newbury
37 points @ 6/1 (B365) Balzaccio* (min 11/2)
28 points @ 15/2 (VC) Greywell Boy* (min 7/1)Balzaccio not so good a bet now more rain has come than expected.
Value Is Everything2:55 Newbury
31 points @ 9/1 (VC) Free Thinking* (min 15/2)25 points @ 7/1 (Sky) Run Ructions Run* (min 13/2)
25 points @ 15.5/1 (betfair) Koolala* (min 13/1)(£26 available)
16 points @ 9/1 (VC) Lily Waugh* (min 8/1)Good result with a couple of non runners. Ground has obviously softened but some trainers still run their horses in target races like this whatever the ground.
3:30 Newbury
48 points @ 11/2 (C) Roalco De Farges* (min 5/1)30 points @ 14/1 (B365) Bertie Boru* (min 12/1)
12 points @ 13/2 (B365) Highland Lodge (min 13/2)Value Is Everything2:55 Newbury
31 points @ 9/1 (VC) Free Thinking* (min 15/2)25 points @ 7/1 (Sky) Run Ructions Run* (min 13/2)
25 points @ 15.5/1 (betfair) Koolala* (min 13/1)(£26 available)
16 points @ 9/1 (VC) Lily Waugh* (min 8/1)With the two non-runners now make Lily a main bet:
Another:
14 points @ 7/1 (B365) Lily Waugh* (min 13/2)Value Is Everything2:55 Newbury
31 points @ 9/1 (VC) Free Thinking* (min 15/2)25 points @ 7/1 (Sky) Run Ructions Run* (min 13/2)
25 points @ 15.5/1 (betfair) Koolala* (min 13/1)(£26 available)
16 points @ 9/1 (VC) Lily Waugh* (min 8/1)Good result with a couple of non runners. Ground has obviously softened but some trainers still run their horses in target races like this whatever the ground.
Not sure about "good" Stilvi. Bit of a shame with Free Thinking being lame Stilvi, had him pinpointed as outstanding value today, and Koolala wasn’t far off either.
Run Ructions Run is interesting with trainer in such good form, though I’d rather Craig Nichol had kept the ride. Haven’t got much time – going to Newbury today – anyone could wait until a better price is available with Lily Waugh (7/1 generally), with Rachael on board could be better on Tote too. She (Lily) can hit one and not sure conditionals are the best way to go with such horses. But with trainer (at last) hit form lately – worth taking a chance. Ground shouldn’t be a problem with those two.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.