Gingers Jumpers

[RoyalAcademy]

Thank you for a fascinating thread Ginger.

I wish I had the time and consistency to do something similar. Reading your Cheltenham efforts and adding my own modest profit for the week inspires me to try harder.

You have a certain disdain for trends I think even if it is one way into a race. It has its place but its not high on your priorities?

[Gingertipster]

2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup
19 points @ 25/1 (FD) Smad Place* (min 20/1)
21 points @ 20/1 (FD) OFaolains Boy* (min 16/1)

14 points @ 50/1 (B365) Holywell* (min 40/1)

Are the Old Guard on their way out?

No getting away from it,

Bobs Worth

‘s finishing effort was uncharacteristically disappointing. There’s a possibility of being better on a softer surface nowadays; but has won at the Festival on Good ground before and had speed on Friday to make ground up when pace was at its fastest. Wonder if the 2013 Gold Cup flatters him slightly, with others getting in to a battle from some way out and only going clear in final strides. Whether he can recapture 2013 winning form is questionable, although 10/1 is fair with over all Cheltenham record outstanding.

Silviniaco Conti

possibly went for home a touch too soon this year (chased by Bobs Worth), that’s possibly the reason for their wanderings. However, Conti may not have stayed, and if failing to in a slowly run good ground Gold Cup – unlikely to do so another year. Very best has also come on softer ground, but that would place more emphasis on stamina anyway. On the other hand did seem to outstay Cue Card in King George and again 16/1 is fair. Silvi and Bob at a combined price of around 11/2 (15%) could look attractive come March 2015.

Cue Card

is the other established top class “staying” chaser. Severe stamina doubts after King George are hard to overlook. Although it has to be said Colin Tizzard’s stable was at the start of a very poor run Boxing Day, with a virus in the yard. Won over "3m1f" in Betfair Cup, but was that its true race distance? Times suggest not. I love this horse but can’t get involved with a doubtful stayer who’s injured.

Of the Old Irish Brigade…

My first bet for the 2014 Festival was

Sir Des Champs

. Could’ve been better suited by this week’s ground, less of a test than when second in 2013. Still only nine, so age is in his favour. But I’d like to see a return to form before thinking about him…

Owner companion

First Lieutenant

‘s inconsistency this term is different to last. Still a chance of improvement over a stiff 3¼m and 33/1 is ok; but owner may well have better Gold Cup candidates by March 2015, so again not certain to get a run for your money.

Lord Windermere

showed improved form to win, but needs to make another giant stride to win an average Gold Cup. Not out of the question, but a short head and ¾ lengths beating of On His Own and The Giant Bolster isn’t top class form. 12/1 is far too short.

Gold Cup second

On His Own

has also improved in 2014, but age is a major stumbling block; 11 next year. Needs to rectify jumping right-handed.

Ex-French stable companion

Rubi Ball

could yet show improvement for Mullins, was thought of as their Gold Cup horse this year before injury ruled him out.

Lyreen Legend

was going perhaps best of all two out Friday, but emptied quickly. Not up to Gold Cup standard.

Perhaps another chance should be given to

Boston Bob

@ 33/1? Convinced he’ll be better over fences once given the chance at real staying trips. Didn’t have the pace in Ryanair and looked poised to win Lord Windermere’s RSA impressively before tipping up at the last. Jumping remains an issue and Mullins is likely to have a choice and connections even supplemented On His Own when Boston Bob already had an entry.

Had

The Giant Bolster

jumped better we could easily have been talking of him as a Gold Cup winner. Remarkable combination of both hood and visor making a difference to his attitude last two starts. How long can it last? Seems exposed as just below top class. Obviously loves Cheltenham and shame jumping holds him back. Might not get his jockey next year as…

…Ryanair winner

Dynaste

might be stepped up. Doubts about the true Betfair distance again gives a question mark on stamina. However, got three miles well enough over hurdles, now settling better and no reason why shouldn’t stay at least that distance over larger obstacles. Suspect like an awful lot of Pipe animals – he’s best fresh nowadays; a long break before Ryanair and Betfair helping. On Haydock form not far behind the very best and young enough to progress further. One of my ante-post winners in Ryanair this year, but in truth did not need to be at his very best. So whether quite a “Cheltenham horse” remains unproven.

The Youngsters:

Champagne Fever

would be a good bet @ 20/1 with B365 if it wasn’t for having three possible Cheltenham options. Whether a horse is a probable runner is an important part of ante-post betting and needs to be taken in to account in price (before NRNB comes in). Champion, Ryanair or Gold Cup for Champagne Fever? Like all Mullins marauders it all depends on who he’s got for other races. No doubt in my mind he’ll turn out best of the Arkle field. Top class performer in making. Scope to continue improving for a good bit longer yet and we know he loves Cheltenham.

Arkle winner

Western Warhorse

a fine advertisement for hoods. Will need a head transplant if he’s to be successful. Too exuberant to stay 3¼m. Has bolted to post and unlikely connections will be able to keep his temperament in check for any distance.

I was very negative about

Taquin De Seuil

‘s JLT chance, thought him suited by soft ground and didn’t particularly like the Oscar Whiskey form. I was wrong. Although helped by the poor showing of both favourites Felix Yonger and Wonderful Charm and Djakadam falling when with every chance, plus Oscar’s early departure hampering Vukovar… Taquin is value for a bigger winning margin over the placed horses. Only one capable of closing down two prominently ridden rivals. Wouldn’t be a surprise to see him develop in to a top class individual. I’d like to see him run at three miles before deciding stamina requirements.

JLT runner-up

Uxizandre

isn’t a forlorn hope. Impressed me in the way he jumped and (despite cheek pieces) attitude. There is a possibility slightly flattered by making the running. But only six years old and already a winner at 3m1f, stamina as yet untapped over fences. Plenty of improvement to come from Alan King’s JP McManus owned horse. Trainer also has Smad Place and owner may well have other candidates too, so whether Uxizandre will go for this has to be factored in to price.

Djakadam

was going well four out when tipping up in JLT. Too far out to know just what he’d have done, but this one has potential and is better than most give him credit for. However, has a lot more speed than many Mullins/O’Leary horses and suspect will be kept to lesser distances for now. According to dad Ted – Ruby Walsh almost picked Djakadam over JLT favourite Felix Yonger.

Like

Djakadam

, another four out faller (in RSA) travelling well at the time was Emma Lavelle’s Le Bec. Normally jumps boldly and well, but can hit one. If team Hatherden can iron out those lapses of concentration has the size and scope to progress next year. Might be one for the Hennessey if all remains well with the horse.

Another RSA faller

Don Cassack

has potential, but isn’t sure to be suited by 3¼m and hasn’t always impressed in a finish.

Carlingford Lough

was well backed in RSA (probably by owner) but didn’t jump well enough and could only manage sixth. Already had as many runs over fences as most second season chasers and looks as if his ability is already known.

Sam Winner

in fifth also looks thoroughly exposed and difficult to see him making up in to a Gold Cup horse.

RSA fourth

Ballycasey

is obviously well thought of. Ran well enough but seemed to empty out. possibly stamina limitations. However, was very easy to back on the day and year before was a late withdrawal. I wonder if he’s fragile/a poor traveller. May be not one to be interested in at Cheltenham at any trip.

Third placed

Morning Assembly

outpaced at a crucial stage, stayed on really well up the hill and may do better if it came up soft another year. Can’t rely on the weather with ante-post betting. Difficult to see him making up the ground on first two who probably have more improvement in them anyway.

Smad Place

has now been placed in three Grade 1 races at the Festival and trainer has a good record there. Only four chase starts so far, RSA second another big step up in form from Newbury and more to come. Equally effective on Good or Heavy and this will definitely be his target. Just below very best as a hurdler and has size to do better as a chaser. Without Ofaolains Boy we’d be thinking of Smad Place as a six length winner from an up to scratch field of the best novice staying chase run.

25/1

represents excellent value.

If 25/1 is value about Smad Place then

20/1 O’Faolains Boy

is at least equal value. If he were stabled with Mullins, Henderson or Nicholls this one would be considerably shorter. Rebecca Curtis has already proven herself capable of producing top class animals and usually hits form in the Spring. O’Ffaolains Boy ran well when 17½ lengths fourth to stable mate At Fishers Cross in Albert Bartlett. Had size to improve as chaser and proved last week just as effective on good as on heavy. Wonderful attitude and jumping will stand him in good stead against the best. Like runner-up has only four chase starts and can be expected to improve further. Get on!

A “handicapper” to be interested in is

Holywell

, winner of the 3m½f Handicap Chase at the Festival as a novice carrying 11-6 despite not jumping particularly well. Seemingly not travelling as well as leader Ma Filleule but always finds plenty under pressure up the hill. Indeed, because of his idling tendencies it is impossible to know just how much he really has in hand. Winning at the Festival for second successive year. Good enough to split Solwhit and Smad Place in Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle. It would be easy to see him taking in either Scottish National or “Whitbread” before attentions focused on graded level over fences. If only Stan James hadn’t closed my account would’ve taken the 66/1.

50/1

(generally now) is still more than fair.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Thank you for a fascinating thread Ginger.

I wish I had the time and consistency to do something similar. Reading your Cheltenham efforts and adding my own modest profit for the week inspires me to try harder.

You have a certain disdain for trends I think even if it is one way into a race. It has its place but its not high on your priorities?

Hi RA,
Thanks for your kind words.

Don’t know about "disdain" exactly. Just don’t think it should be used betting blind. Good trends usually have a basis in fact. eg. Horses For Courses is something I give plenty of attention to, especially at tracks like Cheltenham. When there is evidence of a horse being unsuited to the track it needs to be taken in to account when assessing a price. However, it can be taken too far like with Sire De Grugy. He’d been beaten by Kid Cassidy earlier in the year, yet he gave away a lot of weight and a performance the equivalent of a 7 length win off level weights… And the other Cheltenham loss against Captain Conan was at that time on form – Sire De Grugy’s best performance.

Simon Rowlands puts it better than I can.

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing … 13-43.html

But at least some trends certainly have their place RA.

Value Is Everything

[mbugg4]

Hi Ginger

Love the thread

I to create a book not as good as yours as I cheat by putting my horses in order top should win etc etc, but use the current betting forecast for the race and put my top rated as the shortest price and then work down, then I convert to a 80% book (20% edge) I will then back any horse that is representing value

My question is how do you stake? it looks like some kind of Kelly strategy

whats im struggling with is kelly states you should bet a percentage of you bank, but due to work I may have to put my bets on all at once obviously the bank reduces each time I do this, not allowing me to up or lower my stakes depending on winners/losers until the day after

Cheers
Michael

[Gingertipster]

Hi Ginger

Love the thread

My question is how do you stake? it looks like some kind of Kelly strategy

whats im struggling with is kelly states you should bet a percentage of you bank, but due to work I may have to put my bets on all at once obviously the bank reduces each time I do this, not allowing me to up or lower my stakes depending on winners/losers until the day after

Cheers
Michael

Hi Michael,
Here is an explanation of my staking.

My main bet stakes are based on a calculation. Formulated in two parts, one is "

chance of winning

", the more chance of winning the more is staked. But also, the more "

value

" I believe is in the bet the more is staked.

My idea of the fair odds in percentages terms (-) minus bookmakers/exchange odds available… Times (x) by

6

… Plus (+) My idea of fair odds… Rounded up or down to the nearest point…

If I considered something an

6

=

As you know mbugg, I often have more than one bet in a race. I sometimes tweek the stakes so I don’t put too much money on one race. Also might have half bets or savers (on lesser value) horses. Overall stakes on one race usually add up to between 75 and 95 points, seldom over 100.

Have thought about only doing the very best value bet per race, which could improve profits. But more horses backed mean a better percentage of winners and keeps losing runs shorter. This in turn helps to keep my confidence up… which helps me look at races in the same (profitable) way. Losing runs can subconciuosly make a punter more likely to identify a favourite as the value (more chance of breaking the run) or if money gets tight outsiders (because less money needs to be staked).

The problem I have with Kelly and the like is every punter goes through a long losing run at some point, no matter how good he/she is. So when the inevitable losing run strikes it wipes out most profit. I don’t understand the maths, but according to a book called

"Betting The Timeform Way"

…

Someone with even a 50% strike rate can expect a losing run of 10 to start on average once in 2048 races.
33% SR a losing run of 10 once in 173 races.
20% SR would be 47 races.

Those with a 33% SR can also expect on average a losing run of 20 to start once in 9976 races.
20% SR would be once in 434.

I don’t personally believe in a seperate "betting bank" as such. Seems like it writes off money instead of encouraging investment, but am a naturally cautious person. However, I can understand punters with responsibilities, wife, kids etc need to keep a betting bank seperate for the peace of mind of everyone concerned.

I’ve been asked in the past how much those "points" mean in pounds. Not going to say what my own personal stakes are, but my betting bank is my whole bank account/savings, with every point being 0.0001 of it. If the amount of savings goes up my stakes go up, if savings go down stakes go down.

So I’d advise:

If a punter has got a £1000 "bank"/saved, 10p per point is advised.

If a punter has a £5000 "bank"/saved 50p per point is advised. 31 points being £15.50 @ 12/1 returning £201.5. With presumably between £37.50 and £47.50 coming off of that for a profit on the race of between £164 and £154.

If a punter has a £10,000 "bank"/saved £1 per point advised. 31 points = £31 @ 12/1. £403 returned – probably £75 to £95 for a profit of between £328 and £308.

If £20,000 it’s £2 per point. 31 points = £62 @ 12/1 = £806 returned with between £150 and £190 stakes coming off of that for a profit of between £656 and £616.

If £30,000 its £3 per point. 31 points = £93 @ 12/1 = £1209 returned, less between £225 and £285 staked for a profit of between £984 and £924.

If £50,000 it’s £5 per point. 31 = £155 @ 12/1 = £2015 returned, less between £375 and £475 staked so between £1640 and £1540 profit.

A typical days betting could be anything between 1 and 5 races with selections. So even with a "bank" of £1000 (10p per point) it might be 5 X £9.50, could be £47 staked on one day. With a bank of £20,000 (£2 per point) it could be 5 X £190 = £950 staked in a day… Possibly almost 1/20th of the bank going in one day.

I don’t think it is necessary to change stakes after every race Michael, indeed I only do it once a week. Although my bank may not change as quickly as yours. Obviously the more volatile a bank is the more often staking will need to be changed/checked.

It also goes against the grain for me to bet considerably more on one horse than another just because they’re a month apart – when both their chance of winning and amount of value in the bet are exactly the same. ie If size of bet varies dramatically success or failure could easily depend solely on when winners come / sequence / luck (which admittedly might be good for some, possibly most punters), instead of value achieved (better for knowledgeable punters).

Hope that helps Michael.

Mark

Value Is Everything

[stilvi]

Djakadam

was going well four out when tipping up in JLT. Too far out to know just what he’d have done, but this one has potential and is better than most give him credit for. However, has a lot more speed than many Mullins/O’Leary horses and suspect will be kept to lesser distances for now. According to dad Ted – Ruby Walsh almost picked Djakadam over JLT favourite Felix Yonger.

‘Better than most give him credit for’? The only derogatory comment I have read is the typical ‘no chance’ from the Forum’s number one trumpet blower. I believe that’s the same one who prefers the chances of the National Hunt Chase sixth, the same horse who was supposed to hasten everyone’s retirement in the RSA but wasn’t considered good enough to even run in the race.

As regards speed although Djakadam had an Arkle entry, I think that would have been very much his third option. Must admit he doesn’t strike me as anything other than a stayer.

Djakadam is owned by Rich Ricci. You would think he would want a Gold Cup runner so at this stage it looks a choice between Champagne Fever and Djakadam. Everyone seems to think Champagne Fever wants a step up in trip but how certain can you be that he will actually improve for another mile and a quarter?

[Gingertipster]

Hi Ginger

Love the thread

I to create a book not as good as yours as I cheat by putting my horses in order top should win etc etc, but use the current betting forecast for the race and put my top rated as the shortest price and then work down, then I convert to a 80% book (20% edge) I will then back any horse that is representing value

Cheers
Michael

There is no such thing as "cheating" Michael! Doesn’t matter how profit is achieved.

When I first started doing 100% books I always produced a book before looking at bookmakers prices, otherwise there’d be a chance bookies prices would influence my thinking. And I’d advise novice odds-compilers to start this way.

However, now I am confident of my own ability to identify value it does not matter what bookmakers offer, I will come to my own conclusions. So looking at bookmakers prices earlier can sometimes identify outstanding value – "WHAT!!! 12/1, that should be more like 7’s! ", enabling me to take the price earlier, before some other good judge does.

I don’t do books for every race, as value often shouts at me anyway and a book would be a waste of time. But do like to do so for large fields or fields I don’t (before study) know much about.

Everyone will be different. An 80% book is a good way of doing things Michael, unfortunately it didn’t work for me. I once tried an inbred margin for error by doing 90% books (believe Dave Nevison does it your way) but personally found the odds just didn’t look right. ie Could not be sure I had the prices right…

So now I do a 100% book and then put in a margin of error, with my odds + 1 price. So with my 100% book anything I consider a 25% chance (fair 3/1) is

not

backed @ 100/30, but

is

@ 7/2 or more. I know it may sound as if it is just subtracting 2.8% (25 – 22.2 =

For shorter than 3/1 the margin for error is progressively more than 2.8%+

, for bigger than 3/1 it is progressively less. So something I believe is a 40% fair 6/4 needs to be 7/4+ (36.4%) to be backed (40 – 36.4 = 3.6%+). Something believed to be 2% fair 50/1 needs only to be 100/1+ to be backed (2 – 1 = 1%+).

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Djakadam

was going well four out when tipping up in JLT. Too far out to know just what he’d have done, but this one has potential and is better than most give him credit for. However, has a lot more speed than many Mullins/O’Leary horses and suspect will be kept to lesser distances for now. According to dad Ted – Ruby Walsh almost picked Djakadam over JLT favourite Felix Yonger.

‘Better than most give him credit for’? The only derogatory comment I have read is the typical ‘no chance’ from the Forum’s number one trumpet blower. I believe that’s the same one who prefers the chances of the National Hunt Chase sixth, the same horse who was supposed to hasten everyone’s retirement in the RSA but wasn’t considered good enough to even run in the race.

As regards speed although Djakadam had an Arkle entry, I think that would have been very much his third option. Must admit he doesn’t strike me as anything other than a stayer.

Djakadam is owned by Rich Ricci. You would think he would want a Gold Cup runner so at this stage it looks a choice between Champagne Fever and Djakadam. Everyone seems to think Champagne Fever wants a step up in trip but how certain can you be that he will actually improve for another mile and a quarter?

Had Djakadam been one to be pushed along at 2m4f Stilvi, I’d agree with you about his stamina requirements. But when horses travel so well through their races it puts doubts in my mind about their stamina requirements. Certainly see him getting 3 miles, skeptical about 3 1/4. More’s to the point, travels so well I think others in the stable will get the chance to prove their stamina before Djakadam. If I had to nominate a Cheltenham target it would be the Ryanair.

Champagne Fever seems the sort that once something gets to him – finds more. Happy just going along half a length up whatever the pace. Unless there is a stand out (like Sprinter Sacre) most horses as good as what I believe Champagne Fever will prove to be – go for either Champion Chase or Gold Cup. I agree he’s still not certain to get the Gold Cup trip. However, even though his Cheltenham form is 2 miles I feel it’s around (60/40) will get 3… And therefore… If he stays 3 miles in Ireland will be given the opportunity to run in the Blue Riband. If failing at 3m Stilvi, a by then proven top top class Champagne Fever may well go back to 2m.

If Shutthefrontdoor wins a big race it will probably be the Grand National. I fear the "Trumpet Blower" hasn’t got much chance of picking up. But doesn’t really matter because he can always start another thread and then forget about the bet completely. Just like the Boston Bob Gold Cup bet this year. I wish my bookmaker would forget about losing bets.

Value Is Everything

[thehorsesmouth]

Djakadam was cruising when he fell and I do wonder if he’d have the stamina for a Gold Cup. He has plenty of time being only a five year old and my guess is he’ll be waited with another year if he’s good enough. He was going a lot better than my fancy Felix Yonger who clouted the fourth last at a vital stage, as the leaders were quickening. I think he’s have been closer but for that but would still have been a well beaten fourth. I was really disappointed with him and it’s likely he’s just not as good as I thought.

[stilvi]

Djakadam

was going well four out when tipping up in JLT. Too far out to know just what he’d have done, but this one has potential and is better than most give him credit for. However, has a lot more speed than many Mullins/O’Leary horses and suspect will be kept to lesser distances for now. According to dad Ted – Ruby Walsh almost picked Djakadam over JLT favourite Felix Yonger.

‘Better than most give him credit for’? The only derogatory comment I have read is the typical ‘no chance’ from the Forum’s number one trumpet blower. I believe that’s the same one who prefers the chances of the National Hunt Chase sixth, the same horse who was supposed to hasten everyone’s retirement in the RSA but wasn’t considered good enough to even run in the race.

As regards speed although Djakadam had an Arkle entry, I think that would have been very much his third option. Must admit he doesn’t strike me as anything other than a stayer.

Djakadam is owned by Rich Ricci. You would think he would want a Gold Cup runner so at this stage it looks a choice between Champagne Fever and Djakadam. Everyone seems to think Champagne Fever wants a step up in trip but how certain can you be that he will actually improve for another mile and a quarter?

Had Djakadam been one to be pushed along at 2m4f Stilvi, I’d agree with you about his stamina requirements. But when horses travel so well through their races it puts doubts in my mind about their stamina requirements. Certainly see him getting 3 miles, skeptical about 3 1/4. More’s to the point, travels so well I think others in the stable will get the chance to prove their stamina before Djakadam. If I had to nominate a Cheltenham target it would be the Ryanair.

Champagne Fever seems the sort that once something gets to him – finds more. Happy just going along half a length up whatever the pace. Unless there is a stand out (like Sprinter Sacre) most horses as good as what I believe Champagne Fever will prove to be – go for either Champion Chase or Gold Cup. I agree he’s still not certain to get the Gold Cup trip. However, even though his Cheltenham form is 2 miles I feel it’s around (60/40) will get 3… And therefore… If he stays 3 miles in Ireland will be given the opportunity to run in the Blue Riband. If failing at 3m Stilvi, a by then proven top top class Champagne Fever may well go back to 2m.

If Shutthefrontdoor wins a big race it will probably be the Grand National. I fear the "Trumpet Blower" hasn’t got much chance of picking up. But doesn’t really matter because he can always start another thread and then forget about the bet completely. Just like the Boston Bob Gold Cup bet this year. I wish my bookmaker would forget about losing bets.

I suppose it is a matter of preference regarding the stamina issue. If the horse is genuine Grade 1 material personally I would want to see him cruising along 4 out rather than being scrubbed along. I have only backed the winner for the Gold Cup on the basis that he might be better than the bare form suggests. As regards the age question given the possibility that he might have run in an RSA as a 5yo and being a French bred I can’t see him skipping a year. I suspect it will just be a case of whether he proves good enough to take his chance.

Going forward you clearly rate Champagne Fever a better prospect than I do. Having beaten the subsequent Champion Hurdle 1-2 being beaten fair and square by a quirky 33/1 is in my opinion a huge disappointment. I still believe he needs the easy lead. It will be interesting to see if he can get that more easily over a longer trip. Wouldn’t be that keen to support him wherever he goes but at the moment I would have him as the more likely Ryanair candidate.

Not sure who you are referring to as the other horses who might be stepped up in trip before Djakadam?

[mbugg4]

Hi Ginger

Thanks for the extensive reply

Will look at doing something similar regarding staking

Not sure why you times it by 6 then again I have not read it fully due to being at work

Cheers
Michael

[Gingertipster]

Djakadam was cruising when he fell and I do wonder if he’d have the stamina for a Gold Cup. He has plenty of time being only a five year old and my guess is he’ll be waited with another year if he’s good enough. He was going a lot better than my fancy Felix Yonger who clouted the fourth last at a vital stage, as the leaders were quickening. I think he’s have been closer but for that but would still have been a well beaten fourth. I was really disappointed with him and it’s likely he’s just not as good as I thought.

Felix Yonger never seemed to be travelling well. Had good early season form on a goodish surface THM, then ran respectably for a while on soft. Everyone (well, "we") thought it was the softer ground that stopped him producing his best; apparently not. Failed to do any better. Or as you say THM, may be the earlier form just wasn’t as good as first thought.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Going forward you clearly rate Champagne Fever a better prospect than I do. Having beaten the subsequent Champion Hurdle 1-2 being beaten fair and square by a quirky 33/1 is in my opinion a huge disappointment. I still believe he needs the easy lead. It will be interesting to see if he can get that more easily over a longer trip. Wouldn’t be that keen to support him wherever he goes but at the moment I would have him as the more likely Ryanair candidate.

Not sure who you are referring to as the other horses who might be stepped up in trip before Djakadam?

Good point about Champagne Fever needing to lead Stilvi, it did go through my mind. Thinking back to that pre-Cheltenham gallop… it’s unusual for the main hope in a gallop to lead like that. You’d have thought they’d give experience of having horses around him; unless as you say "needs the easy lead"…
At the moment I’ll give him the benefit of doubt and say he needs to "race prominently"; not necessarily leading but on the arrowhead with a clear view of the front.

The horses I was reffering to more likely to be given the opportunity of proving themselves stayers before Djakdam are (in no particular order) Champagne Fever, Boston Bob, Ballycasey and then you’ve got the two injured Rubi Ball and (probably the main hope) if fit Sir Des Champs. Already got five possibles for the Gold Cup.

Where as for the Champion Chase:
Champagne Fever (again), Felix Yonger and Avrika Ligionaire. Just three and of those Avrika wants to go right-handed and Felix doesn’t really look up to it.

And the Ryanair:
Champagne Fever (yet again), Ballycasey, Felix Yonger and Djakadam. And imo Ballycasey isn’t a Cheltenham horse.

With so many potential Gold Cup horses and the way Mullins mind works – wanting horses for every Grade 1… Although I agree with you Stilvi, that Djakadam may be better at 3m than 2… If anything I can see Mullins giving him every chance to prove himself top class at distances up to 2m5f (even 2 miles). Only trying him beyond 2m5f if things go wrong with others.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Hi Ginger

Thanks for the extensive reply

Will look at doing something similar regarding staking

Not sure why you times it by 6 then again I have not read it fully due to being at work

Cheers
Michael

The "6" doesn’t come from anywhere in particular. It’s to get the "value" part of the equation up to a similar level to "chance of winning" part.

eg If I thought a horse had a 25% (fair 3/1) chance of winning and is available @ 7/2 (22.2%)…

25 for "chance of winning" – 22.2 for price available = 2.8
2.8 x

6

= 16.8
16.8 + 25 = 41.8
So stake is 42 points @ 7/2 = 147 profit

If the 25% chance were available @ 4/1 (20%):
25 – 20 = 5
5 X

6

= 30
30 + 25 = 55
So the stake is 55 points @ 4/1 = 220 profit

If the 25% chance were available @ 9/2 (18.2%):
25 – 18.2 = 6.8
6.8 X

6

= 40.8
40.8 + 25 = 65.8
So the stake is 66 points @ 9/2 = 297 profit

Profit goes up significantly the more value is in the bet. The 25% shot having

42

points @ 7/2, or

55

if available @ 4/1 or

66

@ 9/2.

Where as:
If the 2.8 is not multiplied it would be:
25 + 2.8 = 27.8
Only 28 points @ 7/2 (compared to 42) = 98 profit

Or

25 + 5 = 30
30 points @ 4/1 (compared to 55) = 120 profit

or

25 + 6.8 = 31.8
32 points @ 9/2 (compared to 66) = 144 profit

Hasn’t always been "X by 6" Michael. It’s been difficult to get it right. Figures without multiplication weren’t enough. If memory serves I then began with X 3, then X 4, then X 5, now X 6 and still not sure it will stop there.
If there’s more value in a bet it should win more. If there’s a lot of value in a bet it should win a lot of money.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Tuesday:
Supreme -49
Arkle -81
3mHandicap +295
Champion Hurdle -34.6
NH Chase -84

Tuesday Total +46.4 points

Wednesday:
Neptune -42.5
RSA -107
Coral -96
Champion Chase +233.83

Wednesday Total -11.67 points

Thursday:
JLT -93
Ryanair +292
World +272
Byrne -25

Thursday Total +446 points

Friday:
Triumph +295.3
Albert Bartlett -88
Gold Cup -130
Grand Annual -94

Friday Total -16.7 points

Cheltenham Total +464.03

Value Is Everything

[stilvi]

The horses I was reffering to more likely to be given the opportunity of proving themselves stayers before Djakdam are (in no particular order) Champagne Fever, Boston Bob, Ballycasey and then you’ve got the two injured Rubi Ball and (probably the main hope) if fit Sir Des Champs. Already got five possibles for the Gold Cup.

Apologies, I was under the impression we were just talking about novices. In reality I think it is stretching things to suggest he has anything like five ‘live’ candidates.

Rubi Ball hasn’t won any of his last eleven starts and Boston Bob has won one minor race out of his last five. These two do not appear to have much forward momentum.

Ballycasey appeared to have every chance in the RSA. He doesn’t look good enough and stamina could well be an issue. I wouldn’t be surprised if he dropped in trip.

Sir Des Champs is probably the best of the four but can he improve on his second to Bobs Worth? I doubt it.

[Gingertipster]

Saturday
Uttoxetter Midlands National -77
Kempton Silver Bowl +159

Saturday Profit +82

Value Is Everything

[Author]

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