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2014 Champion Hurdle
20 points @ 14/1 (WH) The New One*
25 points @ 8/1 (L) My Tent Or Yours*
20 points @ 10/1 (C) Our Connor*
saver:LAY: 12 points @ 4.8/1 (betfair) My Tent Or Yours
LAY: 10 points @ 4.7/1 (betfair) Our ConorIf you haven’t backed anything yet my advice is to wait until after the Supreme time is known. This is my 100% book for mid-way between Good and Good-soft.
25% Hurricane Fly 3/1
25% The New One 3/120% My Tent Or Yours 4/1
18.25% Our Conor 9/2
6.75% Jezki 14/1
3.75% Melodic Rendezvous 25/1
0.75% Petit Zig 132/1
0.25% Grumeti 400/1
0.25% Captain Cee Bee 400/1MTOY is available @ 9/2, but that’s not enough of a margin for error (need 5/1) and if the ground leans towards good-soft (rather than good) MTOY and OC will swap places in my calculations and also marginally improve Melodic Rendezvous and Petit Zig’s chance.
With My Tent Or Yours and Tom Segal dominating early trading, Hurricane Fly 7/2, The New One 7/2 and Our Conor 11/2 now all look good value with B365 and Stan James. Betting now, I’d do TNO and OC with saver on HF.
Value Is EverythingHi Ginge,
Best of Luck todayHaven’t had an interest in the Champion hurdle yet
you say if you were backing today you would back our conor and TNO and save on the fly, what would your stakes today look like at the prices?
Hi Ginge,
Best of Luck todayHaven’t had an interest in the Champion hurdle yet
you say if you were backing today you would back our conor and TNO and save on the fly, what would your stakes today look like at the prices?
Mine would be:
42 points @ 7/2 TNO
29 points @ 11/2 OC
18 points @ 7/2 HFIf you wanted an alternative, winning more on OC:
37 @ 7/2 TNO
34 @ 11/2 OC
18 @ 7/2 HFGood luck Baynet.
Value Is EverythingSorry to be a pain ginge… but based on your previous posts i get
42 on the new one and 35 on OC can you show me why we differ?Our conor
18.25-15.4 = 2.85
2.85 * 6 = 17.1
17.1 + 18.25 = 35.35From the Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting (and any ante-post bet from today that will run from that time):
So under the new system:
11 – 7.7 = 3.3
3.3 x 6 = 19.8
19.8 + 11 = 30.8 rounded up to 3131 points @ 12/1 instead of 28 in this case.
You are correct Baynet.
If wanting to concentrate on OC…
I’ve just tweeked my current odds and reduced my Our Conor to 18% from 18.25%.So 18 – 15.4 = 2.6
2.6 X 6 = 15.6
15.6 + 18 = 33.6
Rounded up to 34 pointsYou could certainly do 42 TNO, 35 (or 34) OC with a 22 saver on HF, but that would add up to 99 which for me is a bit much which is why I tweeked the numbers bringing it down to 89.
Staking plan is only "based" on that system.
Value Is EverythingCheltenham Ante-Post Bets:
Supreme Novices Hurdle
51 points @ 7/1 (NRNB Corals) Wicklow Brave*14 points @ 18/1 (VC) Valseur Lido* (min 15/1)
10 points @ 41/1 (betfair) Garde La Victoire (min 33/1) (£83 available)
Saver:
7 points @ 12/1 (VC) Vaniteux (min 12/1)Another:
3 points @ 14/1 (B365) Vaniteux
Half saver:
12 points @ 4/1 (B365) VautourValue Is Everything2:40 Cheltenham
31 points @ 11/1 (VC) Holywell* (min 17/2) 1st
20 points @ 14/1 (FD) Time For Rupert* (min 12/1)
12 points @ 37/1 (betfair) Ma Filleule* (min 28/1)(£160 available) 2nd
10 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Restless Harry* (min 28/1)(£195 available)
saver:
4 points @ 22/1 (L) Standing Ovation (min 20/1)Bloody good win, but it cost me as much as many losers!
Value Is EverythingWhat a day punting!
Half a saver 4/1 Vautour wins. -49
Champagne Fever (5/1 ante-post) comes to win his race only to find rank outsider in first time hood just too good. -81
Ma Felleule jumped brilliantly, Over the last with a good chance. Though always knew Hollywell finds plenty for pressure and had nice win @ 11/1. But nowhere near what 37/1 of runner-up could’ve been. +295
Had 14/1 The New One, 8/1 My Tent Or Yours and 10/1 Our Conor all ante-post. Latter fatally fell severely hampering former with middler just failing to get to his owner companion. Did half saver Lays on all three. -34.6
National Hunt Chase 14/1 Shutthefrontdoor and 8/1 Shotgun Paddy ante-post, both jumped poorly. Emma’s representitive barely got any fence right. 2nd, yet only just failed. -84
-49 -81 +295 -34.6 -84 = +46.4 points
Could’ve been a lot more. But doesn’t matter so much on a day where one of my favourite horses loses his life.
Value Is Everything2014 Champion Chase
18 points @ 16/1 (VC Non-runner free bet) Cue Card*
74 points @ 9/4 (NRNB FD) Sire De Grugy*
5 points @ 20/1 (betfair) Somersby (min 16/1)(£55 available)
4 points @ 29/1 (betfair) Wishful Thinking (min 16/1)(£191 available)Value Is EverythingI do not understand the betting on the Champion Chase at all.
My 100% book:
Sire De Grugy 34% 15/8
Captain Conan 16.5% 5/1
Avrika Ligionaire 8% 12/1Somersby 7.75% 12/1
Sizing Europe 6.75% 14/1
Wishful Thinking 6.75% 14/1
Hinterland 5% 20/1
Bailey Green 4.75% 20/1
Kid Kassidy 4.5% 22/1
Module 3.25% 28/1
Special Tiara 2.75% 33/1Three horses massively over-priced in my opinion. Sire De Grugy @ 3/1 (a full 9% better!), Somersby @ 20/1 and Wishful Thinking 29/1. Unusual for outsiders to be that different to my prices! Be amazed if any of those odds last.
Value Is EverythingOn this ground I think Somersby has a live chance.
Coral going 4/1 on SDG from half 8 tomorrow.
RSA Chase Cheltenham
41 points @ 7/1 (NRNB PP) Smad Place*
28 points @ 16/1 (NRNB PP) Le Bec*Another:
10 points @ 16/1 (PP) Le Bec* (min 10/1)Value Is EverythingOn this ground I think Somersby has a live chance.
Coral going 4/1 on SDG from half 8 tomorrow.
To be honest Rich, think Somersby is a very talented horse but seldom goes through with his effort. If I was only having the one bet Somersby for a place might be a better way.
Interesting about Corals Rich, but they’ve almost closed my account now. Well over 90% of bets reduced by their trader, mostly to single figure £ stakes. Hopefully another bookie will go bigger, I have NRFB’s with VC.
Value Is EverythingRSA Chase Cheltenham
41 points @ 7/1 (NRNB PP) Smad Place*
28 points @ 16/1 (NRNB PP) Le Bec*Another:
10 points @ 16/1 (PP) Le Bec* (min 10/1)My 100% Book:
16.5% Smad Place 5/1
13.25% Ballycasey 13/2
10.5% Le Bec 17/2
8% Corrin Wood 12/1
7.75% Morning Assembly 12/1
7% Don Cossack 13/1
6.75% Carlingford Lough 14/1
5.75% O’Faolains Boy 16/1
4.75% Sam Winner 20/1
4.75% Many Clouds 20/1
4% Black Thunder 25/14% Geverey Chmbertin 25/1
3.75% Annacotty 25/1
3% Just A Par 33/1
0.25% Samingarry 400/1Value Is Everything
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