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2:40 Sandown
46 points @ 13/2 (Sky) Kasbadali* (min 6/137 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Noble Legend* (min 7/1) (£55 available)
Value Is EverythingNational Hunt Chase
33 points @ 10/1 (B365) Mendip Express* (min 15/2)31 points @ 8/1 (L) Shotgun Paddy* (min 7/1)
20 points @ 14/1 (L) Shutthefrontdoor* (min 11/1)
Half bet:
12 points @ 16/1 (NRNB Sky) Just A Par (min 14/1)Value Is Everything2:40 Sandown
46 points @ 13/2 (Sky) Kasbadali* (min 6/137 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Noble Legend* (min 7/1) (£55 available)
saver:
14 points @ 6/1 (PP) Merrion Square (min 6/1)Value Is EverythingWell, we are nearly there at long lasts
Good luck and let’s beat those bookiesThanks GDC.
Going to need it with the going changing!
Same to you too.Value Is EverythingDoing some catching up on profit/loss before the big week…
From 18th Jan:
2013/14 Season so far +557.73 points
24 Jan -370
25 Jan -148
01 Feb +111
08 Feb -162.12
15 Feb +13
22 Feb -165.8
28 Feb +524.35
01 Mar -94.5
8 Mar -97
Sub total -389.072011/2012 Season Profit +1552.85 points
2012/2013 Season Profit +4470.00 points2013/2014 Season so far +168.66 points
Total Thread Profit 6191.51 points
Poor season so far, could do with a good Cheltenham.
Value Is EverythingCheltenham Ante-Post Bets:
Supreme Novices Hurdle
51 points @ 7/1 (NRNB Corals) Wicklow Brave*Arkle Trophy
47 points @ 5/1 (PP) Champagne Fever*
19 points @ 25/1 (PP) Valdez*2014 Champion Hurdle
20 points @ 14/1 (WH) The New One*
25 points @ 8/1 (L) My Tent Or Yours*
20 points @ 10/1 (C) Our Connor*
saver:LAY: 12 points @ 4.8/1 (betfair) My Tent Or Yours
LAY: 10 points @ 4.7/1 (betfair) Our ConorNational Hunt Chase
31 points @ 8/1 (L) Shotgun Paddy*
20 points @ 14/1 (L) Shutthefrontdoor*
half bet:
12 points @ 16/1 (NRNB Sky) Just A ParRSA Chase Cheltenham
41 points @ 7/1 (NRNB PP) Smad Place*
28 points @ 16/1 (NRNB PP) Le Bec*2014 Champion Chase
18 points @ 16/1 (VC Non-runner free bet) Cue Card*
74 points @ 9/4 (NRNB FD) Sire De Grugy*
JLT Novices Chase
37 points @ 7/1 (Sky) Felix Yonger*
33 points @ 10/1 (C) Vukovar*Ryanair Chase Cheltenham
15 points @ 7/1 (NRNB BOG) Dynaste
29 points @ 7/1 (NRNB BOG B365) Dynaste*
19 points @ 20/1 (NRNB B365) Boston Bob*2014 Stayers Hurdle
36 points @ 10/1 (B365) More Of That*
saver:
25 points @ 3/1 (NRNB L) Annie PowerByrne Group Plate Cheltenham Festival
20 points @ 25/1 (PP) Tap Night*2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup
32 points @ 8/1 (WH) Sir Des Champs*
12 points @ 33/1 (Sky) Rocky Creek*14 points @ 25/1 (Sky) Captain Chris*
All ante-post stakes yet to be added to results totals.
Blue
NRNB/NRFB non runners bets lost nothing)
Value Is EverythingArkle Trophy
47 points @ 5/1 (PP) Champagne Fever*
19 points @ 25/1 (PP) Valdez*saver:
15 points @ 9/2 (B365) TrifoliumValue Is EverythingArkle Trophy
47 points @ 5/1 (PP) Champagne Fever*
19 points @ 25/1 (PP) Valdez*saver:
15 points @ 9/2 (B365) TrifoliumMy 100% Book:
25% Champagne Fever 3/123.5% Trifolium 100/30
18% Rock On Ruby 9/2
11% Valdez 8/1
7.75% Dodging Bullets 12/1
7.5% Grandouet 13/1
4.25% Ted Veale 22/1
2% Western Warhorse 50/1
1% Brick Red 100/1If I was betting from scratch at today’s prices Trifolium @ 9/2 and Valdez 10/1 would be the bets.
Value Is Everything2014 Champion Hurdle
20 points @ 14/1 (WH) The New One*
25 points @ 8/1 (L) My Tent Or Yours*
20 points @ 10/1 (C) Our Connor*
saver:LAY: 12 points @ 4.8/1 (betfair) My Tent Or Yours
LAY: 10 points @ 4.7/1 (betfair) Our ConorIf you haven’t backed anything yet my advice is to wait until after the Supreme time is known. This is my 100% book for mid-way between Good and Good-soft.
25% Hurricane Fly 3/1
25% The New One 3/1
20% My Tent Or Yours 4/1
18.25% Our Conor 9/2
6.75% Jezki 14/1
3.75% Melodic Rendezvous 25/1
0.75% Petit Zig 132/1
0.25% Grumeti 400/1
0.25% Captain Cee Bee 400/1MTOY is available @ 9/2, but that’s not enough of a margin for error (need 5/1) and if the ground leans towards good-soft (rather than good) MTOY and OC will swap places in my calculations and also marginally improve Melodic Rendezvous and Petit Zig’s chance.
Value Is EverythingCheltenham Ante-Post Bets:
Supreme Novices Hurdle
51 points @ 7/1 (NRNB Corals) Wicklow Brave*14 points @ 18/1 (VC) Valseur Lido* (min 15/1)
10 points @ 41/1 (betfair) Garde La Victoire (min 33/1) (£83 available)
Saver:
7 points @ 12/1 (VC) Vaniteux (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingCheltenham Ante-Post Bets:
Supreme Novices Hurdle
51 points @ 7/1 (NRNB Corals) Wicklow Brave*14 points @ 18/1 (VC) Valseur Lido* (min 15/1)
10 points @ 41/1 (betfair) Garde La Victoire (min 33/1) (£83 available)
Saver:
7 points @ 12/1 (VC) Vaniteux (min 12/1)My 100% Book:
23% Vatour 100/30
20% Irving 4/115% Wicklow Brave 11/2
9% Vaniteux 10/1
7.25% Valseur Lido 13/15% Gilgambo 20/1
4.75% Josses Hill 20/13.75% Garde La Victoire 25/1
2.2% Wilde Blue Yonder 40/1
2.2% The Liquidator 40/1
2.2% Western Boy 40/1
1.5% Three Kingdoms 66/1
1.5% Splash Of Ginge 66/1
1.5% Un Ace 66/1
0.75% Sgt Reckless 132/1
0.25 Germany Calling 400/1
0.1% Sky Khan 1000/1
0.05% Fantasy King 2000/1I also took a 4/1 saver Vatour, but is no longer available.
Value Is Everything2:40 Cheltenham
31 points @ 11/1 (VC) Holywell* (min 17/2)20 points @ 14/1 (FD) Time For Rupert* (min 12/1)
12 points @ 37/1 (betfair) Ma Filleule* (min 28/1)(£160 available)
10 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Restless Harry* (min 28/1)(£195 available)
saver:
4 points @ 22/1 (L) Standing Ovation (min 20/1)Value Is EverythingSorry to say but we are on the same three in the Arkle. I had to have a saver on Champagne Fever as I think it is long odds on that he gets a relatively easy lead. Western Warhorse shouldn’t be quick enough to cause a problem.
Bit surprised at your price for Vaniteux relative to other horses like Western Boy – four times the price when he appears to have the better form. Vaniteux looks the part and seems like a decent prospect going forward but his impressive win last time was in a steadily run race over a longer trip on a flat track. The two horses who finished third and fifth have done nothing for the form. In his previous races he had taken a keen hold and jumped poorly. Surely his current price is all about hype? Of course that isn’t to say he can’t win but at the moment I would have him as the least attractively priced runner in the race.
Sorry to say but we are on the same three in the Arkle. I had to have a saver on Champagne Fever as I think it is long odds on that he gets a relatively easy lead. Western Warhorse shouldn’t be quick enough to cause a problem.
Bit surprised at your price for Vaniteux relative to other horses like Western Boy – four times the price when he appears to have the better form. Vaniteux looks the part and seems like a decent prospect going forward but his impressive win last time was in a steadily run race over a longer trip on a flat track. The two horses who finished third and fifth have done nothing for the form. In his previous races he had taken a keen hold and jumped poorly. Surely his current price is all about hype? Of course that isn’t to say he can’t win but at the moment I would have him as the least attractively priced runner in the race.
Good when we agree Stilvi, doesn’t happen very often.
Actually, don’t know whether Champagne Fever will get an easy lead. Interesting in the racecourse gallop given a free run up front, so suspect that’s where they want him to be. If Western Warhorse isn’t fast enough though – Rock On Ruby might make life difficult. Trifolium shouldn’t be too far away either. May be a fast pace will suit Valdez? Goes against the grain a bit, had ROR in my corner last two years.Vaniteux and Western Boy seem to have similar form at the moment so my pricing may seem a little strange. But the former has imo a lot more scope for further improvement. Beat Portway Flyer 12 lengths with any amount in hand. Wouldn’t say it’s "hype" exactly, the proverbial "could be anything" comes to mind. Jumping better than previously and travelled effortlessly at Donny, suggesting will be effective back in trip. Runner-up hasn’t run since but won previous start by 5 under a big weight. True, third placed Gone Too Far did not advertise the form, but failed to settle and found nothing as a result. Another positive is Barry picking him over Josses Hill who arguably has both better form and 2 mile form at that – though has been under a cloud.
Western Boy’s second to Vatour reads well but the Mullins horse probably improved significantly afterwards. There was 11 lengths back to the third Mr Fiftyone, who’s been beaten just as easily by The Tullow Tank and Sure Reef before and since. Suspect Russell will be waiting out the back and just hoping the others go too fast. One big negative is trainer doesn’t seem in the best of form. Also from a talented but temperamental family on both sides of pedigree, wonder what he’ll find up the hill.
Value Is EverythingNational Hunt Chase
Already backed:
33 points @ 10/1 (B365) Mendip Express* (min 15/2)
31 points @ 8/1 (L) Shotgun Paddy* (min 7/1)
20 points @ 14/1 (L) Shutthefrontdoor* (min 11/1)
Half bet:
12 points @ 16/1 (NRNB Sky) Just A Par (min 14/1)Just a Par money back.
Not sure I’d take the 7/2 now on offer about Shutthe, 5/1 Shotgun still looks reasonable.
Be surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the first 5 in the market.Value Is Everything
Actually, don’t know whether Champagne Fever will get an easy lead. Interesting in the racecourse gallop given a free run up front, so suspect that’s where they want him to be. If Western Warhorse isn’t fast enough though – Rock On Ruby might make life difficult. Trifolium shouldn’t be too far away either. May be a fast pace will suit Valdez? Goes against the grain a bit, had ROR in my corner last two years.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.