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1:50 Newbury
43 points @ 3/1 (WH) Estidkaar* (min 3/1)10 points @ 9/2 (PP) Mustadeem (min 9/2)
Value Is EverythingYeah presumed they were your "local" tracks ….when betting in these lower grade races do you scale your stakes down appropriately?
There does seem to be a long wait between decent races at the moment don’t seem to remember all these lower grade races all through the week unless there’s a festival… I was sure Thursday and Friday had a better programme of racing than we’re seeing nowadays …still will be busy enough next week
Enjoying the thread keep up the good work!
Thanks Baynet,
It depends on the race, if I believe the race is easy to work out my staking is: my idea of it’s price minus the available price, times 6, plus my ideaa of its price. If I think the race/horse is not quite as easy to work out then it’s "times 5" instead of 6… So although I don’t neccessarily reduce staking just because it is a lower grade, suppose I do find more lower grade races harder to work out. So more of them will be smaller stakes than higher grades.
Value Is Everything3:25 Newbury
45 points @ 9/2 (B365) Belle De Lawers* (min 9/2)I think this horse went into plenty of notebooks last time.
Unfortunately, I see the drying ground being a big negative on two counts. There is already one Rule 4, no surprise if more to follow. Belle De Lawers has form on good but today will be a much quicker surface. Personally, I think she wants soft ground and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see her in the list of non-runners.
Good luck.
Good point and I agree with you Stilvi, drying ground is a worry for Belle and could well be a non-runner. Sire Black Sam Bellamy’s progeny statistics show a slight preference for softer ground and dam Scotland The Brave loved getting her toe in. But I didn’t see much in BDL’s action to say she’d hate a firm surface and price imo makes it worth taking a chance.
We shall see.
Well 1m+ Good to Soft was what I put down last time so as you say it seems we will see assuming nothing further drops out. Perhaps some of them are waiting on earlier races for a ground indication.
It should be interesting race tactically. You would think Buick would be best advised to go hard from the front but that might help Queen Of Ice to settle. Mind you the idea of Hughes trying to stack them up isn’t a good alternative.
Well Hughes tried his little party trick but fortunately on this occasion Buick was wise to it and he wore him down.
I think my previous assessment of Belle De Lawers isn’t too far away. Hopefully, this hasn’t set her back too far. Dropped in trip on softer ground and minus Hanagan she is probably worth another chance.
I can’t see why a held up horse needs to be took around the wide outside with such a long run in?
7:25 Goodwood
49 points @ 7/2 (PP) Warrior Of Light* (min 7/2)
47 points @ 5/1 (C) Emerites Galloper* (min 5/1)Hopefully Corals will allow you more than £1 on.
Value Is Everything9:05 Goodwood
64 points @ 11/4 (PP) Souville* (min 9/4)saver:
8 points @ 9/1 (PP) Meritocracy (min 8/1)Value Is EverythingWith studying and going to Newbury yesterday and studying and going to Goodwood today (two excellent wins with Oasis Fantasy and Souville)… am too tired to do any more study. Probably leave it at the one Saturday race and recharge batteries.
Time for bed.
Value Is Everything3:15 York
45 points @ 9/2 (L) Dutch Rose* (min 9/2)12 points @ 4/1 (B365) Guest Of Honour (min 4/1)
Value Is Everything2:15 Salisbury
57 points @ 11/4 (SJ) Rebecca Romero* (min 5/2)40 points @ 6/1 (WH) Pal Of The Cat* (min 11/2)
Value Is Everything
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