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Good question Kasparov.
Excellent post by MV.I am a bit bemused by the general state of ignorance about horses’ ability to go three miles. The debates on Master Minded and Oscar Whisky spring to mind.
With Master Minded and many other "doubtful stayers" the King George is an ideal first opportunity to "prove" a horse "stays". Tight ("sharp") turns and flat, is thought to be less of a test than a more "galloping" (but still flat) Newbury, or testing "stiff" and undulating Cheltenham. Some horses will "stay" 3 miles around Kempton Park but not stay the trip at Prestbury.
Henderson has plenty of opportunities to test Oscar Whisky at 3 miles in a proper race, before the festival. Suspect reluctance to do so is more to do with:
A) Not wanting to take on Big Buck’s before the big day.
B) Easier opportunities at around 2 1/2 miles.
C) Henderson has plenty of two milers already for the "Champion", and no other "Stayers" candidate.
D) Would rather be in ignorance before the big day to keep the dream alive.Some points to clarify:
1. Surely it would not be that difficult to let a horse gallop three miles as part of its training, and see if it runs out of puff. I can understand why you might not want it to do a lot of jumping given injury risks but surely aerobic endurance is testable directly or with scientific equipment.
There is no point in galloping a horse over 3 miles at home. To be a worthy enough exercise it would have to be done at full race pace, against the clock. Any horse can "stay" the trip if going slow enough to do so. So why do something at home with no financial gain, when it stops a horse from running on track for prize-money?
2. Most of these horses seem to be the progeny of flat horses bred for up to 12 furlongs. Surely it would make sense to breed them from horses bred for longer distances. Or does it not matter? Can one infer three mile ability from pedigree?
3. Can DNA or muscle tests indicate stamina?"Pedigree" helps, but is in no way the be all and end all. If a pedigree is nothing but stamina a breeder is likely to end up with a slow horse at "any" distance (there are no 5 mile+ races). A racehorse’s make up is not equal parts of each parent, grand parent, great grand parent, great great grandparent etc. anyway. It’s possible (though less likely) to have both sire and dam as sprinters yet get its stamina from the staying grand dam.
Stamina is not all about pedigree/DNA anyway. Temperament also has a good deal to do with it. As a general rule: Any "lazy" or "relaxed" or lethargic racehorse, who settles well in a race… has an excellent chance of outstaying its pedigree. Any fractious, or free sweater, or on his toes, or unruly racehorse, who gives the impression of wanting to get on with things / refuses to settle… is unlikely to stay as far as pedigree suggests. Which is why trainers often don’t need to run their horses over "the trip" to know it won’t stay.
The reason why Henry Cecil did not run Frankel in the Derby wasn’t because of "breeding". He knew the horse’s temperament (at that stage) would not allow him to "get the trip". (And why some of us laid the horse ante-post immediately after the 2000 Guineas). Now that Frankel seems a more relaxed individual, he has a better chance of getting 10 furlongs this year (though still not absolutely certain). Personally, he’d have to "settle" even more if I was to be confident of him staying 12 furlongs.
Horses do change their distance requirements as they get older. Most become more settled and "get further". Some learn to settle as they go up in trip. Some are less setttled and don’t stay as far.
I remember a horse called Kawagino, who at the start of his jumping career barely got two miles, yet by the end was running over extreme distances.4. Is there really much difference between 2 miles and 3 miles? After all human athletes often have quite a wide range of optimal distance eg 5000m runners are usually good at 10000m as well.
What is a "sprint" or "staying race" distance for a thoroughbred is not a sprint for a human. Even a 5000m human runner would be classed as a "stayer", so both 5000 and 10000 metres are staying races. Humans have a good chance of being equally as good at both distances. There are few human athletes capable of winning both sprint distances and middle distances (say 200m and 800m), and few that are equally as good at middle distances and staying distances (say 1 mile and 10000 metres).
The thoroughbred National Hunt distance of 2m4f is essentially middle distance, where as 3m2f110y of the Gold Cup is for "stayers". A jumping 2m4f horse has a fair chance of getting 3 miles around a sharp track like Kempton on good ground.
I do however, wish our trainers took after our Australian friends in testing their horses at a variety of distances. As long as it is unlikely to hinder the horse’s progress.5. Long distance human athletes often train by running hundreds of miles each month. Why can’t horses do the same?
As someone else has said, horses are not humans. Although may be pure thoroughbreds are not the animal to be comparing. I don’t know how endurance horses are trained.
Of course even if a punter has doubts about a horse "staying the trip", he/she could consider backing it if odds make it worth the risk… But that "value" arguement is perhaps for another day.
Value Is EverythingA fascinating subject, though frustrating. I recall being amazed at the support for Cloudy Lane in the 2010 National as I was convinced he would not stay and watched him go from galloping to nothing like a true non-stayer. Yet based on Ballabriggs desperately clinging to the shreds of a 10-length final fence lead at the Festival, I decided that he too would not stay at Aintree.
I think your assumption is pretty much correct on anything softer than good i think Ballabrigs would struggle to get home agsinst a true stayer.
Something else punters and connections have to take in to account when assessing stamina is "idling".
Ballabriggs appeared barely to stay the 3m1f110yrds of In the 2010 Kim Muir Ballabriggs was well clear two out and still going best of all, 10 lengths up at the last. Only to fold tamely in the closing stages to a walk. Just getting home by a rapidly diminishing half a length. Ballabriggs appeared barely to stay the strongly run 3m1f110yrds.
On a preview panel for last year’s Grand National I expressed some doubts about Ballabriggs staying the 4m4f trip. But also the fact he appeared to be travelling best when only second to Skippers Brigg at Kelso over 2m6f110yrds. Ballabriggs obviously stayed 2m6f well and there was a strong possibility (even probability) he idled badly at Cheltenham. Something in my opinion proven at Aintree. Maguire’s whip ban due to making sure his mount did not once again slow alarmingly on the run-in.
So to think now, that Ballabriggs "barely stays the National trip" is in my opinion wrong.
As with all horses, assessing "idling" and "non-staying" is difficult, but can pay dividends.
Value Is EverythingExcellent post.
The trend in recent years has been to breed more and more speed into the thoroughbred racehorse to the detriment of stamina. Breeders generally aren’t interested in breeding for the jumps since once the horse has finished its career it has no stud value ( they’re all gelded ). I believe Ireland is an exception to the rule which explains why so many top quality jumpers hail from there.
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Breeding and conformation are useful pointers, but they pale into insignificance against racecourse performance (properly analysed) as a guide to how far a horse will stay, which is pretty much what John Dunlop (and countless others since) indicated.
On all known form Master Minded won’t stay 3m against top class opposition, whereas Oscar Whisky probably will, (his owner thinks so, too).I believe staying is recognised when a horse can change gears and show a turn of foot at the finish of a race no matter how far it is.Fame and Glory seems to have that turn of foot.Incidentally that is also a sign of a horse with class.
They say if a horse stays a mile on the flat he will stay two miles over hurdles.Depending whether he can jump of course.After that the racecourse will tell how far he stays.There are of course exceptions to the rule depending on the horses love of the NH game.I have known horses bred for sprinting who stayed two miles over fences.Won lots of races he did.
There was a horse by the sprinter Quorum who seemed to get 4 miles and 856 yards quite well though he also won over 5f. I think that really proves the answer to the question is in QI fashion a chance to flash the "Nobody Knows" joker!
Andy, it is Red Rum to whom I refer, Quorum may have stayed 7f but as a sire his stamina index was lower I think.
Red Rum dead-heated on his racecourse debut in the Thursby Selling Plate at Liverpool (where else) on April 7th 1967 when still under 2 years of age, he was foaled 3rd May 1965.Quorum was a poor man’s Danehill or Ahonoora inasmuch as he passed on ability but ceded distance requirements to whatever the mare happened to pass on, and sired good winners over all distances.
These three weren’t "sprint sires".
You might just as well argue that The Tetrarch (Roi Herode), Abernant (Owen Tudor) and Tudor Minstrel (Owen Tudor again), three of the fastest horses ever to have raced in the UK, were bred to be stayers because their sires stayed beyond 2 miles.
Re milers being able to stay 2 miles over hurdles, that may have been true 50 years ago, but the end-to-end style of racing we see today (thank you, Mr Pipe) really means you need to look for a horse who gets 1 1/2 miles on the flat to have much chance of that.
I’d agree on the whole you’d need something that stays further than a mile on the flat to be reasonably sure of getting 2 miles over hurdles. I’d have it as 1m2f.
Value Is EverythingSo a mile and two,which is the classic distace, is now the requirement for two mile hurdlers.Have you been speaking to Coolmore by any chance? No point sending my mares to Yeats I suppose.This looks like a short shelf life for most miler sires.
A lad will give the trainer an idea of a horse’s trip. He will do this from riding it work and getting a feel from the horse . That will be adjusted after the horse has run. Many of them start with a trip of less than a mile after all , so then they can build on the information gleaned from those early runs.
If a lad cannot give a reasonably accurate ( not right every time , but pretty often ) idea of the horse, likely required trip , most suitable ground etc., then he is not the person to be riding work.
This intuition / knowledge is developed from experience , hence the value of lads who have served apprenticeships with good trainers . Modern technology is not required for this. The same techniques that have been in use for so many years are perfect for the job.By the same token , it is not necessary to have "professional jockeys" riding trials. Lads are "professionals " and good ones can sometimes tell a trainer more than some jockeys. Of course it doesn’t hurt to have your own jockey familiarise himself with his future mounts. In those situations the jockeys are not likely to be riding the pacemaker – that would be a job for a lad.
The whole thing is predicated on learning from the horse rather than imposing one’s preconceptions on the horse .
As far as speed is concerned – a stayer without much speed will be made a lot of use of , a stayer with some speed or turn of foot can be held up. They are both capable of winning races in their own company. Those running in better class company than themselves are going to find it hard to win.
I agree a "good" lad will take the horse round in the time asked for by the trainer for each lap. They will soon find out the horses capability.If he does not do so he won’t be riding for the trainer in future.A "good" lad is one who follows orders.Trainers more and more train by the clock.Aidan uses the clock all the time, I believe.
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