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It may have been a no but those who backed it wouldn’t be whinging about a moody ride, which is not the case with an awful lot of drifters…..
Only just spotted this thread, much of which makes interesting reading.
In amongst everything else, perhaps we could ask Phil Smith in his forthcoming Q & A why Stefanki got to run off a mark of 69 on its handicap debut when the horse who beat it (narrowly) in the only run that can possibly count towards its mark is now running off 81 and the next four home are now running off 86, 77, 80 and 74.
Connections of Stefanki were given a massive helping hand by the official handicapper if only they could bring themselves to believe that the horse would leave behind the form of its two never-sighted runs in between. It seems they could.
I’ll get the Phil Smith Q&A up and running next week Pru – I’ve been waiting on Peter Michael responding but I think I’ll just bash on with Phil’s Q&A.
Done a Patent bet yesterday which consisted of Regal Parade, Forest Crown and Temple Meads.
As always, the one who I expected to win the most ended up being the bugger that let me down. Sods law!
Thought I’d just explain my views, as it’s been misunderstood by some.
Over time there is bound to be times when those backed in late win more often. Suggesting the "market knows". Where as at other times the market seems to know little, as happened (mostly) at the weekend.
These days there is far more good paddock information going out in to the outside gambling community. Whether that’s recingpost paddock tips (via website) or by mobile phone (via good judges working for outside influences). This did not happen 10 years ago, when mobile phones were banned.
Add to that the often weak on-course betting markets, where a little money can cause big moves. And Exchanges influence on on-course betting…
All these things make late market moves far more prolific now than it did 10 years ago.
Does NOT mean to say form analysis and value betting are a waste of time. Even those paddock judges are taking VALUE in to account, however, not all the people listening to these experts are thinking about value. Once they’ve heard the "tip", they want to be on, whether the price is in free fall or not.
Value Is EverythingWhether a small glass statue can
be made in time to present to
Mr Smith I don’t know, or if Stefanki
will even sit still.Putting a three year old
up as the crystallization of the
overbet horse is altogether questionable.As for my erecting three tombstones
in the precediong page it may have been due
to drugs; two forms of antibiotic
and painkillers but I would do it
again and again to ram home the
message of spent candlewax and its heavy relation
to the profit and loss account.The three evacuees are very much in business,
diverted and different, but still producing
one would hope. As for my occasional
deficiencies as a gambler; they are not
about method method method but lie nestled
between the ears, ears, ears,
which lines me up nicely with 95% of
those reading this paragraph.I believe Goodwood will see sunny skies,
and I am rather looking forward to it.
is that chipper enough k k k en
(I appreciate your words)I dont know which minor parts of this
thread Prufrock found of less interest,
but I just haven’t the time to re-read it
and put myself on his horse.Great thread.
Only problem is that it’s all anecdotal.
Will be very interested in CR’s stats to show if this is really happening or is just a perception.
I rarely bet below Class 3 any more as I was finding what I thought was value, taking morning prices which often shortened, then seeing a late drift and no show- soul destroying.The week starts in horribly familiar style.
I give you the 2.15 at Yarmouth. Hmmmmmmmmmmm
If you were told at 9am this morning that one of Fallon’s mounts out of My Manikato and Black Baccara would have started fav and offered a bet on which one it was, what price would Black Baccara have been?
There was an hour there where the only big gamble that got beat required the intervention of the stalls handlers moving him from the best to the worst stall
It’s the only way this psychic late money can be stopped.
What a total farce at Ballinrobe, I was on the runner up ew so am unaffected, great ride by young Joseph O’Brien on the winner but how about Golan Go? the connections must be spitting feathers, 400 mile round trip, who knows how much cash lost, my sympathy is with them
There was an hour there where the only big gamble that got beat required the intervention of the stalls handlers moving him from the best to the worst stall
It’s the only way this psychic late money can be stopped.
Let’s just hope Marty McFly gets on with it and removes the Racing Almanac from Biff Tannen before it is too late….
It’s interesting that connections have admitted being behind the money. You only tend to hear about these things when something’s gone wrong and there is an axe to grind. Even Curley only admitted it was his money in his recent coup after Sportingbet said they weren’t paying.
For the most part all knowledge of these gambles is denied.
It begs the question: just what proportion of the betting market is insider money? I’m sure I read on here someone citing an article in a magazine suggesting it was 35%. I’d be surprised if they didn’t constitute a bigger group than form students. You only have to look at turnover on a race of exposed horses racing for a meaningful prize (the Summer Plate on Saturday), and compare and contrast it with a race of unraced maidens, to see that form punters are a dieing breed.
It begs the question: just what proportion of the betting market is insider money? I’m sure I read on here someone citing an article in a magazine suggesting it was 35%. I’d be surprised if they didn’t constitute a bigger group than form students. You only have to look at turnover on a race of exposed horses racing for a meaningful prize (the Summer Plate on Saturday), and compare and contrast it with a race of unraced maidens, to see that form punters are a dieing breed.
The opening maiden at Yarmouth was circa 800 grand pre-off, the 30 grand sprint at Ayr (with all its exposed form) barely got above 550 grand pre-off.
PS Glenn. I sent you a first batch of data.
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