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I guess the only people who could (in theory) bet with more confidence than an insider are those that know which horses
all of the insiders
have backed, or perhaps more significantly, laid.
Ginger – I think the point is not that horses are shortening but that it is predominantly the ‘right’ horses that are shortening.
It’d be interesting to hear from anyone who has any data on this.
e.g. have average winning sp’s reduced? Is there any data on market movers and the results, other than anecdotal and limited in timescale? Have average over-rounds increased/decreased?
It’s likely a combination of factors. It’s not just people on the inside of an operation who can work out what the best players are doing. Good software might be able to do that too if the best players have trademark bet types, bet sizes and timings.
If Germany are even money all day long and suddenly go to 3/1 and then it emerges that they’re fielding their U14s then it’s pretty safe to assume that those who made them 3/1knew
the kids were on the bus and on the way to the stadium.
The final price ends up being the sum of all the knowledge, the unknowable inside knowledge overlaid the public form based knowledge. In that sense it’s like a Tote return but arrived at by those with the knowledge doing business with those in the dark in order to arrive at the Tote return. Bit like being able to take the 3/1 against the even money favourite placing that was briefly showing on the tote windows!
There will still be surprises of course. Not all participants will be in the loop as it were, but generally you’d be covering those in your perm of possible winners too!Sean,
Doesn’t the paddock picture take time to evolve?
e.g. The racingpost website have late tips from their paddock judges. They wait until all runners leave the ring, then phone in their opinions and why, then (presumably) that has to be written up on the website. All taking time. Then after the late information is given, a horse shortens. Then there are the followers, who see a horse shortening and back it, so it shortens further. Therefore, this shortening is happening right up to the off.
The other day, I saw Dance Tempo in the paddock at Newbury. Looked in fine shape, well muscled up and had probably come on a great deal. Went around to the bookies, 28/1 in a lot of places. Being greedy, went to look at the Tote price (shorter), went back and it was down to 16’s. Finished a close(ish) second.
After the race I found out it was Ken Pitterson’s paddock pick on the racingpost website.If it is all "well informed insider knowledge" that’s working these late market moves; why is there a Ladbrokes in the centre of Lambourn?
It is (imo) a mixture of many factors, including poor liquidity, poor over-rounds, more knowledgeable punters (who can work out the most likely front runners in a probable slowly run race etc) and more late information given by experts.
Value Is EverythingGinger – I think the point is not that horses are shortening but that it is predominantly the ‘right’ horses that are shortening.
If there are more horses shortening these days, then it stands to reason there will be more "right horses" shortening. The two go hand in hand.
Value Is EverythingThe "right" horses are now shorter earlier on the exchanges than ever before.
I think in general the concept of taking a price above your tissue price and expecting to make a long-term profit when betting on the majority of racing these days has been killed off by the exchanges, how sad is that.
Pace is the number 1 method of stopping horses on the flat, its pal over jumps is fitness or lack thereof. Changes in riding tactics from one race to the next and correlating that with betting market movement is completely unregulated by the BHA.
They don’t go hand in hand if it is predominantly the right horses that are shortening, i.e. if it is disproportionate, which is what’s being suggested..
Yes, that’s certainly true and has always been a factor in racing markets. It’s also one of the many reasons that racing markets are more volatile than sports markets.
In the example you give the horse is a positive, which reflects you’re experience of how the horse looked and so on.
In the absence of any negative intelligence on the horse such a move would not be resisted in the market would it?
What if the 5/1 2nd fav in the race looked terrific. Was a picture of health and vitality, went to post beautifully, had been backed all morning (including in the Ladbrokes in Lambourn) and then went from 6.6 on the exchange to 12.0 as it stood calmly at the post before running mid division never nearer?sorry, my post above in reply to Ginger. It’s all coming a bit thick and fast for me to keep up!
They don’t do hand in hand if it is predominantly the right horses that are shortening, i.e. if it is disproportionate, which is what’s being suggested..
I am disageeing with the assumption it is "predominately" or "disproportionate" Corm.
When there are more horses in general shortening, punters notice these market moves more when they win. They get far more media coverage when they win, than when they don’t.
Value Is EverythingI too have noticed this consistently it’s almost impossible to decide which horse will start fav. Animals trading in this position all day and appearing to warrant it are knocked out and replaced at the last minute by winning horses. Taking early prices now is a very hazardous business indeed searching for winning value is very difficult if not impossible now
Gingertipster asked….why is there a Ladbrokes in the centre of Lambourn?
With an even greater number of betting shops per capita in Newmarket than anywhere else in the Country. Only surpassed by the disproportionate number of broke and debt-ridden former stable workers.
Go into any bookies on Newmarket High Street and you’ll see that just being on the periphery of being an insider is not the golden goose many reckon it to be.
KA few years ago I had a friend who worked in a call centre for a bookmaker. He used to look after alot of the high roller accounts, and would let me know which owners/trainers were backing their own horses. Most of these horses would contract noticably during the course of the day as the word got around. This was pre exchanges when you could get a bet on with your bookmaker. In the current climate people that know the time of day are restricted with the bookmakers, and due to poor liquidity, can’t get on until late on the exchanges. The dramatic collapse of prices is purely down to the right people with the right information all trying to get on at the same time, coupled with people jumping on the bandwagon once they see the price falling. By the same token if there is no money for a horse from a shrewd yard, then it drifts massively as people assume it isn’t off.
Yes, that’s certainly true and has always been a factor in racing markets. It’s also one of the many reasons that racing markets are more volatile than sports markets.
In the example you give the horse is a positive, which reflects you’re experience of how the horse looked and so on.
In the absence of any negative intelligence on the horse such a move would not be resisted in the market would it?
What if the 5/1 2nd fav in the race looked terrific. Was a picture of health and vitality, went to post beautifully, had been backed all morning (including in the Ladbrokes in Lambourn) and then went from 6.6 on the exchange to 12.0 as it stood calmly at the post before running mid division never nearer?Sometimes there is a negative (or positive) market move without any reasonable explanation. May be someone with more money than sense is laying (or backing) it.
There seems an assumption that every market move (positive or negative) is for a reason. Just because there is a negative market move and it finishes unplaced, does not neccesarily mean the "market move told you". It’s sometimes a coincidence.
However,
In your example Sean, may be the horse has been effected by a change in the pace angle (if there’s been a front runner non-runner). May be the filly is in season. May be the horse has played up badly in transit. May be it’s normal demeanor is to be on his toes and not to "stand calmly".Value Is Everything"The cliche invariably dredged up to describe such horses is "drifting ominously" and it is used far too often by TV pundits. In the majority of instances, far from destroying confidence, a horse drifting in the market should have its backer perking up in the expectation of greater reward. The logic is devastatingly simple: If a horse drifts, you get a better price and better value…" (P66)
"…if a horse drifts, go in and back it again…" (ibid)
(Mark Coton,
Value Betting
Aesculus Press, 1992)
If ever the exchanges did for a book, chaps, it was Value Betting. Slavishly following this advice in 2010 would lead to a warm skip outside a supermarket and that’s sad. No wonder he no longer punts – all the magic has gone out of it.
If ever the exchanges did for a book, chaps, it was Value Betting. Slavishly following this advice in 2010 would lead to a warm skip outside a supermarket and that’s sad. No wonder he no longer punts – all the magic has gone out of it.
Spot on, Max. I’ll put some data up to support that later.
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