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This is one of my favourite races of the year, although it’s starting to prove a bit unlucky for me. It’s not always the most competitive G2, but this year there are a few horses which are fairly closely matched. The trainer to follow on trends would be M.Stoute. His ten-year record in the race is 281231212, with horses like Little Rock, Gamut and Papal Bull running in consecutive years. This year though, there are other trainers who also have a good record here, with live contenders.
The M.Stoute entry this year is Doctor Freemantle, who has probably been a bit disappointing since his spring/summer 3yo campaign. Last time out, he finished behind Campanologist and Enroller in the G2 Hardwick Stakes at Ascot. Duncan and Frozen Fire come here after good runs in the G1 Coronation Cup at Epsom. All the Aces won a Listed race last time, but is closely matched with Campanologist & DF on 3yo G2/G3 form.
I guess the form book pick would be Duncan, based on his close 4th in the Coronation Cup. I haven’t quite caught on to him yet. That run was his only ever run in a group race. I suppose it can be looked at in different ways; was it a fluke run (it didn’t look like it) or is he a very progressive horse. Either way, he’s coming up against horses with more solid, if less good, group race form. His trainer also won the race last year with Lucarno.
I’ve never been a great fan of Campanologist over 12f, although he has run well twice over this distance at Ascot. I’m not convinced he’d enjoy a searching 12f at Newmarket. I can’t explain why, but I still feel there’s better to come from Doctor Freemantle & All the Aces (both their trainers know what type of horse is needed to win this race). If Frozen Fire turns up, he’s got to be respected, he was close to Duncan in the Coronation Cup & I’d feel that this stiff 12f would probably suit a AOB middle distance horse.
This has the makings of a very good horse race. Any ideas?
This is one of my favourite races of the year, although it’s starting to prove a bit unlucky for me. It’s not always the most competitive G2, but this year there are a few horses which are fairly closely matched. The trainer to follow on trends would be M.Stoute. His ten-year record in the race is 281231212, with horses like Little Rock, Gamut and Papal Bull running in consecutive years. This year though, there are other trainers who also have a good record here, with live contenders.
The M.Stoute entry this year is Doctor Freemantle, who has probably been a bit disappointing since his spring/summer 3yo campaign. Last time out, he finished behind Campanologist and Enroller in the G2 Hardwick Stakes at Ascot. Duncan and Frozen Fire come here after good runs in the G1 Coronation Cup at Epsom. All the Aces won a Listed race last time, but is closely matched with Campanologist & DF on 3yo G2/G3 form.
I guess the form book pick would be Duncan, based on his close 4th in the Coronation Cup. I haven’t quite caught on to him yet. That run was his only ever run in a group race. I suppose it can be looked at in different ways; was it a fluke run (it didn’t look like it) or is he a very progressive horse. Either way, he’s coming up against horses with more solid, if less good, group race form. His trainer also won the race last year with Lucarno.
I’ve never been a great fan of Campanologist over 12f, although he has run well twice over this distance at Ascot. I’m not convinced he’d enjoy a searching 12f at Newmarket. I can’t explain why, but I still feel there’s better to come from Doctor Freemantle & All the Aces (both their trainers know what type of horse is needed to win this race). If Frozen Fire turns up, he’s got to be respected, he was close to Duncan in the Coronation Cup & I’d feel that this stiff 12f would probably suit a AOB middle distance horse.
This has the makings of a very good horse race. Any ideas?
I haven’t studied the field but the way he drifted and his subsequent pathetic performance at Ascot would not have me rushing to back Doctor Freemantle.
With the weather forecase to be rain, rain & more rain i’d expect Enroller to run a big race too.
I don’t think Campanologist is at his best at 12f, especially on ground on the soft side. Duncan is very progressive and could have a chance whilst like others, i can’t be backing Dr Freemantle after his run at Ascot.
Whilst Frozen Fire is very hard work and impossible to tell how he will turn up I certainly wouldn’t rule him out. He clearly didn’t handle Tattenham Corner at Epsom and the rain could give him a chance if he doesn’t get too worked up.
If he runs in this, it reflects so badly on last year’s Irish Derby.
The race is already seen as a complete farce.
Duncan or Campanologist I like for this race, Duncan probably gets the nod who has form over Frozen Fire.
Enroller I can’t see winning if the ground stays as it is, would need it soft to be a winning contender.
Frozen Fire desevres another chance as he will finally haave pace to come off.
As for the forecast rain is only expected tomorrow other than that its going to be pretty dry.
Schiaparelli is beautiful in appearance with a lovely stride and minimal mileage for plenty of mainland Europe Group 1 success. I really, really like this horse as a future stallion and as a typical Arc contender (but probably not the winner).
At his prime, this field doesn’t hold a candle to him. Betting with interest.
Cant disagree with that statement but a big question mark has to be how he would handle good to firm ground. The great majority of Monsuns show their best form with a a tad of juice in the ground same goes for this one. Schiaparelli is the class horse here so he probably wont to be at his best to win. Of course the curse of Godolphin…. just kidding
At his prime, this field doesn’t hold a candle to him. Betting with interest.
With what piece of form is this?
I like the horse too, but he needs more rain (some forecast) and to improve on past performances to progress past the likes of Duncan (& others).
- Total Posts 17716
All the Aces at the best price you can get
my points system
142 campanologist
136 all the aces
136 duncan
127 enroller
126 drumfire
126 doctor fremantle
121 schiaparelli
117 indian days
109 alwaarywill back campanologist
At his prime, Salse, not necessarily his form right now. I hope not to have mistaken you.
All my trends instincts say I should stick with Doctor Freemantle, but based on his two runs this season, I’m going to reluctantly pass on him. If he ends up a big price (10/1+), I’ll probably have a small saver on him…& if he ends up winning I’ll be unhappy.
The next choice for me would be Duncan. His trainer has a good record in the race (31537241 over the last 10 years or so). Now Frozen Fire is out, I think he would be the clear form pick. My reservations with Duncan are; that he’ll probably be priced quite defensively, he’s still a bit inexperienced for this sort of race. He could be still improving though, which could make him something of a good thing. I’d like to back him, but not at a silly price.
The other one I intend to back, probably at a sensible price, is All the Aces. If they have some rain, & he gets ground he likes, I think he could run a very nice race. On all known form, he shouldn’t win, but if the going turns softer it could turn the race upside down. He could quite easily run into the places here. I’m finding it a bit difficult to judge what price he should be, does around 6/1-8/1 sound fair?
I know trends & records are there to be broken, but Godophin do not do very well in this race, their recent record is 3245572825. I’m happy to pass on their runners.
Blue Square Prices: 7/2 Duncan, 7/2 Campanologist, 9/2 Doctor Fremantle, 9/2 All The Aces, 8/1 Schiaparelli, 10/1 Alwaary, 12/1 Enroller, 16/1 Drumfire, 33/1 Indian Days
To me, that’s seems a very fair price for Duncan, I’ve backed him, I’m going to leave AtA & DF, who both seem a bit short.
At his prime, Salse, not necessarily his form right now. I hope not to have mistaken you.
No, you haven’t at all. I think his prime on RPRs was about 119, which means he would probably need to slightly improve to win this.
However, if the rain keeps falling, he must have a great chance tomorrow.
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