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I bet you a fiver he runs her- these kind of Group 1 opportunities against your own sex don’t come up that often and she should be fine on what’s likely to be good ground.
I think thats a good analysis carvills. 5/2 would be a price if the ground doesnt get too soft, so I’ll leave that until tomorrow. The kiwi horse doesnt have much to find on the Carnival form. Ground too soft for Majestic Roi, will blunt her kick plus she looked very ordinary at Ascot, Infallible will be better over 7f, Heaven Sent could only sustain a flat out gallop for 1 1/2f the last day off a slowish gallop and she looks Group 2, Nahoodh another suspect stayer, didnt handle the dip in the 1000, German form looks weak, too big a step up for the improving Kasumi.
The Kiwi horse SEACHANGE, her trainer was on ATR and was saying she needs good fast ground to be seen at her best he did add she has won on soft but not a race of this standard and it is to be her last race!!
I think Infallible could shake up the favourite. Gosden’s filly is an outstanding e. w. bet, in my opinion
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
It’s a shame Spacious is not running, I would have fancied her for this, as much on trainer MO than anything else. It’s difficult to be decisive until we know what the ground is going to be like. Darjina is the class horse, but if it’s softish, it probably won’t favour her or Seachange. If it is softish, I suppose the value call would be the German filly Briseida? She’ll certainly handle easier going.
If I were confident that Finsceal Beo was able to produce her best, this is the type of race where she would have a winning chance (only ¾ lgth behing Darjina on Queen Anne form)…but surely she can’t be spot on for this. Is there a chance that Infallible may possibly enjoy softer ground as well, her pedigree suggests she may?
On good ground I’d go with Darjina. If it comes up softer, I’ll gamble on Briseida (hope she’s good enough) and Infallible (thinking she’ll handle the ground, unless I’m told otherwise!)
Infallible for me
Ground will be closer to ideal and its not unreasonable toe xpect alittle improvement after just 4 runs
Drajina is beginning to look like one to swerve and god knows what FB is all about
I’m with you on infallible, how long has she been wanting her ground back, she has ran with credit on gd-fm on her last two starts and is back on good,has to be worth a go. We’ll see how the 3yos can measure up to their elders, to be fair though there are a few smart elders.
Infallible should improve for the ground but we just dont know how much.
The forecast looks really bad with very heavy rain forecast – unless the forecasters have seriously got it wrong then I think we will be looking at good to soft going by the time this race goes off.
I should be at the course mid-morning and I will post a going update in the main section when I arrive and get a chance to find out how things are.
I don’t think Darjina will run and I can’t see Infallible getting home if the deluge arrives so I’m going to plump for Heaven Sent.
Very harsh comments to suggest Darjina is one to swerve. What did she do wrong at Ascot?
Last time out was her second-best run ever, according to RPRs.
I predict two things about Darjina tomorrow:
One- she drifts
Two- she wins.- Total Posts 17716
Is Darjina an unlucky loser or are we trying to make excuses. Personally I am always wary about horses that finish second alot because I feel the horse has got the ability to win but does he/she have the mentality as she’s been there and done it won connections over £1,000,000 in prize money but why’s she failing to put her races to bed? and I don’t think Infallible will be so giving. Just another name to mention Nahoodh, could she put together a decent performance back at Newmarket on good ground, at 16-1 she is very big price.
Infallible place @ 2.00
Nahoodh e/w @ 16-1
Darjina lay @ 3.75
Kasumi e/w @ 40-1Thats going to be my betting strategy spreading out £200 in bets.
Good luck guys
I thought Darjina was just unlucky in the Queen Anne. She battled really well, just got done by Haradasun on her inside. Imo, if the race had been just a little longer, I’m sure she would have got back up to win.
- Total Posts 17716
The race has been priced on good ground, yet 3 of the first 4 in the betting would have serious questions to answer if the rain arrives in the predicted volumes, which must surely open the door for Heaven Sent?
Turftrax website is still showing the track as being good (7.7 on the going stick). It clearly hasn’t rained as much in Suffolk as some other parts of the country…yet.
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingr … =Newmarket
Perfect ground for Darjina methinks.
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