Home › Forums › Archive Topics › Trends, Research And Notebooks › Frankel – What did you think ?
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January 16, 2013 at 20:58 #426571
Frankel should have run in The Arc – connections bottling it was an anti-climax to the colts career.
From reading the above, I appreciate I am in the minority with this view, but my opinion is my own.
January 16, 2013 at 21:19 #426576All people who form ratings will differ in their opinion to some degree. The reason TF ratings differ so much with the official ratings is down to the slippage in official ratings. When the official rankings were first done in 1977 they used the same scale as Timeform. Hence the rating for Dancing Brave was pretty similar. TF 140 Official 141. The difference is that Timeform have remained consistent and not allowed slippage and still rate to the same scale.
At the end of Dancing Brave’s write up in
Timeform Racehorses Of 1986
they added a
Postscript
criticising the International Classifications. I’ll reproduce it here in full but if any copyright issues please delete.
Postscript: In the International Classifications for three year olds published in December Dancing Brave is assessed more highly than any horse since the Classifications were introduced in the seventies. A different scale was adopted in 1986 – to "bring Classification figures into line with commercial ratings" – and Dancing Brave was given a figure of 141. We are well aware of the pitfalls of criticising the work of others – no-one is immune from the blunder, the error of judgement – but we cannot for the life of us understand how Dancing Brave is reckoned to have given Bering a 7 lb beating in the Trusthouse Forte Prix De l’Arc de Triomphe. Bering appears on 134, sharing second spot with Shahrastani, so the official handicappers have given Dancing Brave credit for what he did not do. On the official result of the Arc Dancing Brave comes out 3 lbs better than Bering and 4 lbs better than Shahrastani. As we have said we make the winning distance in the Arc nearer two lengths and have accordingly rated Dancing Brave 4 lbs superior to Bering and 5 lbs above Shahrastani (in our view the Classification underestimates the merit of the two last named). But we have no truck with anyone who tells us that on the form book Dancing Brave is entitled to be regarded 7 lb in front of any other horse in Europe in 1986.
In 29 years of reading Timeform Racehorses annuals I can not recall such strong criticism of an International rating. It’s only taken the International Classifications 27 years to realise.
1st Dancing Brave 3 8-11
2nd Bering 3 8-111.5 lengths
(Timeform rate it 2 lengths)
3rd Triptych 4 9-10.5 lengths
4th Shahrastani 3 8-11
short head
5th Shardari 4 9-4
neck
Please justify the 7 lbs Dancing Brave is rated ahead of Bering TAPK.
Value Is EverythingJanuary 16, 2013 at 21:33 #426581If the Derby, King George and Arc were contested solely by Seller winners and one horse happened to win all three – TAPK’d think it was outstanding form.
You’ve edited this post twice now and its still not funny,You’ve either got it………..Or you haven’t Ginge!! (A sense of humour)!
To answer your stupid post seriously though… I would think it was outstanding form Yes!! Ffs!
January 16, 2013 at 21:46 #426587It’s not supposed to be funny Gord.
Value Is EverythingJanuary 16, 2013 at 22:02 #426590In 29 years of reading Timeform Racehorses annuals
Please justify the 7 lbs Dancing Brave is rated ahead of Bering TAPK.
Bering
was a phenomenal French colt,I remember Freddie Head saying he was unbeatable and was a certainty for the Arc,it concerned me such bullishness, so much so I had another £200 on
Dancing Brave
at 5/1. It wasn’t me who rated ‘The Brave’ 7lb higher than ‘Bering’ but whoever did certainly rated him on what ‘could’ have been rather than the bare result.Had Pat started his run earlier and Pat was notorious for leaving things too late then ‘The Brave’ would have won by 4 lengths no problem,he was flying at the finish and ‘Bering’ only stayed on at the one pace.Its certainly no worse a rating than ‘Timeforms’ unbelievable figure of 138 for
Celtic Swing
a mere 2lb inferior to ‘The Brave’!! What did he do to deserve that lofty mark again………Er Not a bloody thing and you’ve been reading that rubbish for 29yrs too…..More fool you! Maybe thats why you cant just bet on one bloody horse!
January 16, 2013 at 22:44 #426595There exists a filmed interview with Pat Eddery, in which he talks very candidly about Dancing Brave; appraising both the horse and re-living their famous victory in the ’86 Arc.
Eddery is convinced that Dancing Brave would not have won that race had he been closer to the pace, arguing strongly that Dancing Brave would probably have tied up, and was even more adamant that Guy’s pride and joy was a hold-up horse who needed time and the requisite amount of ground in which to deliver that final, telling burst of speed.
Bering was a good horse, although not the world beater many believe him to be. Nonetheless, he wasn’t half a stone inferior to Dancing Brave either.
Maybe Dancing Brave’s dislike of left-handed tracks, in itself, can be viewed as a slight negative, on his otherwise commendable CV.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
January 16, 2013 at 22:45 #426596The Prince is hardly likely to stand up and say that Dancing Brave (now dead, and a disappointment at stud) was better than Frankel, (now starting out on a hugely lucrative stud career) is he ?
Fwiw, I’d be with DB in an Arc featuring Frankel – on any ground.
And while we’re talking of Prince K.A., I was startled recently at his uncanny likeness to an elderly Groucho
January 16, 2013 at 22:50 #426597In 29 years of reading Timeform Racehorses annuals
Please justify the 7 lbs Dancing Brave is rated ahead of Bering TAPK.
Bering
was a phenomenal French colt,I remember Freddie Head saying he was unbeatable and was a certainty for the Arc,it concerned me such bullishness, so much so I had another £200 on
Dancing Brave
at 5/1. It wasn’t me who rated ‘The Brave’ 7lb higher than ‘Bering’ but whoever did certainly rated him on what ‘could’ have been rather than the bare result.Had Pat started his run earlier and Pat was notorious for leaving things too late then ‘The Brave’ would have won by 4 lengths no problem,he was flying at the finish and ‘Bering’ only stayed on at the one pace.Its certainly no worse a rating than ‘Timeforms’ unbelievable figure of 138 for
Celtic Swing
a mere 2lb inferior to ‘The Brave’!! What did he do to deserve that lofty mark again………Er Not a bloody thing and you’ve been reading that rubbish for 29yrs too…..More fool you! Maybe thats why you cant just bet on one bloody horse!
As the Timeform quote above says "no-one is immune" to mistakes. Celtic Swing may or may not have been a mistake. Did not race under the Racing Post Trophy conditions again; so it is impossible to say. Might be best to put a question mark against the 138.
You are saying Dancing Brave’s rating should not be reduced Gord, yet your reason for them not doing so is
"had Pat started his run earlier… then ‘The Brave’ would have won by
4 lengths"
.
4 lengths, my xrse!
Ever thought one of the reasons for my profit and your deficit Gord – could be Timeform?
Value Is EverythingJanuary 17, 2013 at 01:13 #426609This is all a touch bitter-sweet for me
While I agree that Frankel deserves to be on top of the ratings after his wondrous career, I was perplexed as to why Dancing Brave was dropped a couple of notches until Joni used the "converting old decimal currency to new’ theory … and so I don’t feel as bad now. I do feel for the fans of Shergar too. Still, it all seems a bit biased that other greats like Nijinsky, Brigadier Gerard, Sea Bird, Mill Reef and Ribot have got away with it!
Dancing Brave was overrated, if ever so slightly. His legacy rests solely on one brilliant performance in Paris.
From the video evidence that I’ve seen, the same can be said about Sea Bird.
How much did Dancing Brave have in hand? Should he be rated as worth over double the actual winning distance back to the second?
You be the judge.For me the big flaw with Dancing Brave was the fact that he idled as soon as he realised he was out in front. His style of running meant that he would never be the type that would go clear like Frankel … though I feel he had the potenial to. Watch his Eclipse win, he accelerates four lengths clear in a matter of strides and then spends the last furlong looking as though his ‘heatseekers’ had been taken away.
Regarding the Arc, Dancing Brave’s bold move to come on the wide outside appears as though he could’ve forfeited a length or so whilst the others were busy going for the sprint finish. The fact that he was the last to deliver his challenge and find the overdrive to shoot past them all speaks volumes of his ability. And take a closer look at his winning margin, it does look more like 1 3/4 lengths … almost 2!
So what rating did Sea The Stars get for giving the washed-up Youmzain a 2 length beating in the 2009 Arc?
January 17, 2013 at 09:28 #426624Where is the evidence that Dancing Brave ever idled? He didn’t idle when he won the Eclipse or the Guineas or when he won the Arc going away at the finish.
The "idling" theory comes from his King George win. Maybe that day he was simply getting tired?
January 17, 2013 at 09:32 #426625Ever thought one of the reasons for my profit and your deficit Gord – could be Timeform?
No Ginge but I admire your honesty,I personally like to think for myself,I dont subscribe to paying for other peoples views and I certainly dont feel so lacking in confidence that I have to have 3 main bets a side order of 4 savers and 2 Desserts of extra chocolaty savers but it works as you prove.Anybody could do that mind,certainly most on here if they so chose to treat Horse racing as a numbers game.I get way more satisfaction spotting a potential star and watching them develop.There’s a horse called
Dawn Approach
,I’m sure you’ll find it in the index of Timeforms 2012 flat results,it will be under ‘G’………for Guineas winner,I backed that horse at 20/1 last May Ginge,I know you would have still been in nappies slobberin over your little ‘black’ book but when that one horse wins the 2000gns my thread will be back in profit,amazing eh? Of course before then I’ve got ‘Darlan’ at 26’s on the machine,stop dribblin down your chin,I know you put him up at 5/1 as ‘Value is everything My A*se’ when you fell off the back of my Bandwagon.Of course being the King of foresight I’ll be going into Cheltenham with all guns blazing.I might even repeat my very successful ‘TAPK’s Cheltenham wagers’ thread from last year that showed a nice £17k profit for me,being a generous type of guy I dont mind sharing my vast knowledge with the likes of you..FOC too!
As for Pat Eddery……..Lets just say he lost more races he should have won than he did win and his ride in the 86 King George was a shocker he only just got away with and that was thanks to the horse under him!January 17, 2013 at 10:30 #426630"I think the great thing is that everyone’s got an opinion. Just because someone says that the Leeds United team of 1970 is the greatest ever, it doesn’t mean to say they’re totally right."
No Teddy, they may not be y’know,
totally
right…
I mean, this is it, not bein’ funny… but 100 per cent wrong, yeah?
January 17, 2013 at 12:18 #426636Silly thread title as it is impossible to say which horse was the greatest of all time over any distance and the posts seem to have very little to do with the title.
My opinion is Frankel along with Brigadier Gerard are the best milers I’ve ever seen race.
Nothing Silly about the thread title at all…..I think we’d all have to agree
Frankel
was the ‘Greatest Miler of all time’
Why would we all agree that as none of us have been around long enough to see every top class racehorse over a mile? For instance I never saw Tudor Minstrel race yet he was reckoned to be the best miler in 1947. You could go back even further than that if you like but it is ultimately impossible to compare such horses over not just decades but hundreds of years and that is why it is pointless to call any racehorse the best of all time.
January 17, 2013 at 13:05 #426644"thebrigadier":ycv8w8tu wrote:
Nothing Silly about the thread title at all…..I think we’d all have to agree
Frankel
was the ‘Greatest Miler of all time’
Why would we all agree that as none of us have been around long enough to see every top class racehorse over a mile? For instance I never saw Tudor Minstrel race yet he was reckoned to be the best miler in 1947. You could go back even further than that if you like but it is ultimately impossible to compare such horses over not just decades but hundreds of years and that is why it is pointless to call any racehorse the best of all time.
My Grandfathers 98yr old now and he’s been a Racing fanatic all his life,when he speaks I listen,its called experience and it counts for everything in this life we lead,no matter what avenue we’re discussing.When he says ‘Frankels’ the best he’s seen then I’ll take his word for it.We can only speculate about what should/coulda/woulda happened had he been stepped up in trip but what we saw in the 2000gns was the mark of a Miler second to none………And thats coming from me! What my Dear Grandfather did say though was that
Tudor Minstrel
was the nearest thing he’d seen to
Frankel
as both had many similarities,one of which was a headstrong attitude which at the time would have caught ‘Frankel’ out in the Derby as it did ‘Tudor Minstrel’.
January 17, 2013 at 13:13 #426646"The Ante-Post King":6upcync5 wrote:
When you have your head stuck up your backside for most of the day I suppose it’s forgivable to miss a thing or two.
Nath,I’ve narrowed this Prick down to 2 previous contributors,both who were banned and both who had nothing whatsoever worth contributing worthy of debate,being a Mass-debator myself I can spot a Tosser a mile off! I dont suppose you’d like to come and remove my head from my Backside though Moley would you??
Just for interests sake TAPK did you get a warning from Cormack that you would be banned for using the term ‘Tosser’? You also used ‘Prick’ I did I get called an ‘Antipodean Nonentity’ and i bet they didn’t get a warningJanuary 17, 2013 at 13:14 #426647As for Pat Eddery……..Lets just say he lost more races he should have won than he did win and his ride in the 86 King George was a shocker he only just got away with and that was thanks to the horse under him!
In my view, Pat Eddery was one of the most tactically astute flat race jockeys I have seen.
After poor Greville Starkey got the blame for Dancing Brave’s defeat at Epsom – wrongly, in my opinion – Guy Harwood made it quite clear that the horse should be ridden much closer to pace in all future races. If you recall, Greville followed Harwood’s instructions in the Eclipse and won going away.
Pat Eddery followed suit in the King George & Queen Elizabeth, and won the extra two furlong contest at Ascot from Shardari – although by a narrower margin.
Having won his own special Arc trial at Goodwood; the 10f Select Stakes -Greville again aboard – Dancing Brave defeated some cannon fodder easily by 10 lengths or so and then it was all systems go for the Arc.
Eddery by this time was convinced that Dancing Brave was to all intents and purposes, " a mile and a quarter horse " whose class enabled him to see out the extra two furlongs.
Just before the Arc, He told Harwood that it was his intention to keep Dancing Brave right at the back for as late as possible in order to utilize his turn of foot. Eddery reckoned that unless he did so, Dancing Brave would not win the Arc. Harwood, although aghast, went along with it, purportedly uttering to Eddery, "on your own head be it. "
We all know the outcome, and Pat Eddery, to this day, will tell you that Dancing Brave’s best distance was at a mile and a quarter. As I’m fond of saying, make of that what you will.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
January 17, 2013 at 13:22 #426650"Jollyp":25ms0l3i wrote:
When you have your head stuck up your backside for most of the day I suppose it’s forgivable to miss a thing or two.
Nath,I’ve narrowed this Prick down to 2 previous contributors,both who were banned and both who had nothing whatsoever worth contributing worthy of debate,being a Mass-debator myself I can spot a Tosser a mile off! I dont suppose you’d like to come and remove my head from my Backside though Moley would you??
Just for interests sake TAPK did you get a warning from Cormack that you would be banned for using the term ‘Tosser’? You also used ‘Prick’ I did I get called an ‘Antipodean Nonentity’ and i bet they didn’t get a warning
Tosser
in the UK means,someone who pushes their luck Jolly,its a term that originates from Scotland,a game of Tossing coins known as a Tossing school,I was champion Tosser for a good year up there!
Prick
on the other hand is a weapon used for Tossing,its a useless Tool for much else and is widely used as a term for such like,I was often called a Prick at School for being the King of Tossing! Heaven knows what you guys in Oz use such words for!
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