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The greatest buzz I got from racing was watching my own first winner, at Dundalk.That was 30 years ago
Tis true Sea the Stars I never rated very highly but did think he’d very likley win the Arc if he got the trip. His win then brought him up in my estimation but I’d still put him well below the real greats like Secretariat, Sea Bird II, Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Dancing Brave etc
I wonder how he’d be rated now with Rip Van Winkle being a complete flop? Fame and Glory flopping in the Champion Stake wouldn’t have helped either
I suppose if Fame and Glory were to win the Arc that would have given him a mega boost but that IMO is not very likely.
I’d like a few quid on Frankel at 50/1 to end up rated higher than Sea The Stars. Fair bet considering he’s beat nothing to date. Any takers?
I think therein lies the flaw with ratings – they do not take into account how much the horse in question is keeping in reserve. I think there is little doubt that Sea The Stars dossed in his races and the visual impression at least was there was always plenty more in the tank in Kinane needed it.
I fear he is already being underrated but that is probably because collateral form lines are still in existence, and it is fair to say RVW and FG appear to have dented the form somewhat.
But putting ratings to one side for a moment, Sea The Stars accumulated a sequence of Group 1 victories that is unique in the history of the game, and coupling that with my belief he was underrated becasue of his running style (never won by huge distances, did not have a killer turn of foot but destroyed opposition using his exceptionally high cruising speed)it may take a decade or more before the consensus starts to conclude he was an all time great.
I think the problem with the Frankel argument at the moment is that the points being made are becoming blurred. Is he a very good two year old? Yes. Has he won a Group 1? No. Has he beaten Group 1 winners? No. Is he the champion 2-y-o in Britain? Remains to be seen, but a sparkling performance in the Dewhurst will more than likely make him the champion.
After that everything else is conjecture, and yet already he is being compared in some quarters with the true greats of the thoroughbred breed. As I approach my 38th winter as an active horse racing fan, it is probably appropriate to recall at this stage the "talking horse" of that first winter whom my father was insisting was the second coming – Apalachee who finished his juvenile campaign with a Timeform rating of 137 – 2lbs higher than the one Arazi would achieve 18 years later. Trained at Ballydoyle by the maestro Vincent O’Brien he went wrong at 3 after finishing 3rd to Nonoalco in the 2,000 Guineas (at odds of 4/9 by the way).
We can all dream of Frankel making 2011 a season to remember for many years to come for all sorts of reasons. But I do think mentioning him in the same breath as the likes of Sea Bird, Sea The Stars etc. at this stage still strikes me as being highly premature.
More on Frankel, including from a sectional point of view.
DJ- good article but I wondered if you could elaborate on this comment
had the race been truly run, Frankel would surely have won by even further than what is already a wide winning margin
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I’m not sure I follow the logic. Isn’t it possible that, had the race been truly run, others in the field might have run a different race than they did? In other words, perhaps the lack of early pace suited Frankel’s ‘kick’ (evidenced by his better than optimum final sectional) more than it may have done their ‘resolute galloping’ styles?
Come on Pru – while I agree about the clumsiness of ‘Sea The Stars’, ‘Dancing Brave’ is a fantastic name!
Excellent stuff Prufrock.
Confirms my ennitial thoughts about the race.
(Thumbs Up)
Something to really look forward to in the Dewhurst / Racing Post and next year.
With Sea The Stars, Harbinger and potential of Frankel to emulate; are we living in another "Golden Era", to rival The Brigadier, Mill Reef, Nijinsky etc?
Value Is EverythingDJ- good article but I wondered if you could elaborate on this comment
had the race been truly run, Frankel would surely have won by even further than what is already a wide winning margin
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I’m not sure I follow the logic. Isn’t it possible that, had the race been truly run, others in the field might have run a different race than they did? In other words, perhaps the lack of early pace suited Frankel’s ‘kick’ (evidenced by his better than optimum final sectional) more than it may have done their ‘resolute galloping’ styles?
Dave,
Frankel proved before the Royal Lodge capable of maintaining speed to produce a fast overall time. Not just a turn of foot racehorse. Therefore it’s surely almost certain he’d have won by further with a faster early pace?
Value Is EverythingI’m not sure it is almost certain at all Mark – possible, even probable perhaps, but by no means almost certain.
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Personally speaking I think Native Khan could be better than Frankel, Sunday will go a long way to establising wether I am way off or on the mark.
On all known form and what we have seen yes its easy to say Frankel is a machine but visually looking at Native Khan I think he could be the machine that everyone is talking about.
Need to wait and see now
I’m not sure we can draw any conclusions from the seemingly effortless action of horses.Noel Meade had a wonderful hurdler who oozed class until you asked him to change gears.He had none!I have watched horses going well- within- themselves only to find out that was as good as they got.So wait till the pudding is on the table before going for the brandy sauce.
Didn’t Frankel show a "change of gears" in the Royal Lodge?
Already shown a brilliant turn of foot, even without being asked to do so.
Value Is EverythingHi Cormack
Thanks for reading. Indeed it is possible that had the Royal Lodge been run differently, the beaten horses would have performed differently. We can only speculate how they (and Frankel infact) would have run under different conditions and it is the sectional times that give us some sort of idea how much Frankel had in hand and was worth over the bare form.
As Ginger has suggested, Frankel has already shown he’s most effective in a truly-run race at Doncaster and he’s proven his versatility by doing the same under different conditions at Ascot.
When the others are tiring that smooth action may look like a change of gears but is it? We must take on better company to fine out.
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When the others are tiring that smooth action may look like a change of gears but is it?
In the case of the Royal Lodge I think it has already been proven that it is.
He looks to have a huge physical advantage this year, will he have that next year? Looks a bit muscley to be a Derby horse. Can understand the plaudits he’s receiving as a 2yo, wouldn’t be taking 5/2 about anything he’s entered in as a 3yo old though.
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You don’t have to answer but just out of interest, how many of you have backed Frankel for one of the classics next year?
Reading this thread I see a lot of comments similar to a thread that was here a year ago (St Nicholas Abbey) and a year before that (Crowded House). A lot of you were wrong then. How can you be positive you’re right this time.
Can I temporarily change the thread title to: “What DO you think”
We all have a brain that play tricks on us from time to time. It sorts things out for us, without our knowing, and that includes producing our opinions for us. Our eyes and ears take in information, and then our brain meshes it with all our accumumulated experience and “Bingo!” – we have an opinion.
My opinion is that Frankel will turn out to be one of the best racehorses of the past fifty years, if he stays healthy.
He looks to have the ability to run fast enough, and in his last two races I have seen that he “loves” to run fast. In the last three furlongs of his last two races his demeanour shouts: “Look at me. Look how fast I can run. Isn’t running fast really brilliant”. I just hope he can hang on to that exhilaration for as long as possible.
I want Frankel to be a champion for his own sake, and because I am a great admirer of Henry Cecil. He and F T Winter have been my two heroes, for all their diverse characteristics, since I became interested in racing and breeding in the early 1960s.
There is not much objective evidence that Frankel will turn out to be a champion and we can talk about that eveidence until the cows come home and not reach any agreement. But if we were all objective then: trainers would be chief executives of small/medium sized busnesses earning £100,000 a year instead suffering the angst of injured horses and demanding owners; stable staff would be selling mobile phones or food or beauty products instead of mucking out at 5:30 in the morning; and owners would be investing their money at a 5% profit instead of at an 80% loss.
I love that when I am betting I can employ rational analysis to aid the enjoyment of horse racing. But I am not going to be betting on Frankel. And really, the best bits of racing are the thrill, the excitement, the completely irrational, the wholly emotional thoughts like: “I want Frankel to be a champion”.
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