Footy accas

[MikkyMo73]

Mikkly Mo wrote

However, the worrying thing is, that now I am allowed to back on just one team, I often find myself putting a strong fancy in with 3 or 4 others Shocked . Weird how the brain works when you have so many options isn’t it Laughing

Spot on there Mikky. Since being able to back in singles + being able to lay teams too, I’m swamped with options.

Nowadays, I tend to side with Swallow Cottage’s approach and prefer to lay teams – especially really short priced teams that are bet in running.
Next season I’m going to try what seems like a daft system. Any game that’s on live where the fav is 1.6 or less, lay the fav and back that side in running when (or if) the price drifts far enough out to guarantee a 10% profit whatever the outcome. Okay, sometimes you’ll come unstuck if the fav’s take an early lead (as in Arsenal’s Champions League win last week), but I’ve a hunch it might pay off in the long run. Trouble is, it’s so time consuming watching all the games and recording price moves etc.
What do you think?

Hi Insomniac,

I’ve tried similar things myself without success. Without going into too much detail, if you’re looking to guarantee just a 10% profit, then this means it will only take 1 out of 10 games to go wrong to wipe out your total ‘rolling’ profit – if that makes sense.

So you have to ask yourself, what’s the odds on a team that is 1.6 or lower, scoring early enough in a game to ruin the chance of any profit in that game. If you think it’s great than 10/1 then go for it, but if it’s less than 10/1 then it should be a no brainer.

However the above is just numbers based on your 10% profit. Sometimes you might get a 50% profit in just one game, meaning you can afford 2 or 3 games to go wrong in a 10 game spell, yet still keeping your ‘rolling’ profit in your favour.

Hope it all makes sense and good luck.

Mike

[insomniac]

Thanks for your thoughts Mikky. I’ve been mulling them over a few glasses of wine.
There will of course be occassions when I’d be stuffed early on, and as you say that would blow away a good many previous games’ profits. However, on the plus side:
1) At worst it would stuff 6 games’ profits as your max. liability would be at 1.6 (although it’s a fair possibility that there will be successive games where the bet goes down early doors) (Don’t ask me why I picked 1.6 as my starting point.)
2) There will be times when the unfancied team goes ahead, especially late on and one can make more than 10% profit ‘cos the new price for the odds-on fav will not need as much stake to go all green.
3) It is my suspicion that (perhaps mistakenly as football is imo the most accurately priced sport in betting) games involving the top echelon of teams (including – perhaps especially- internationals) are still underpricing the "very hot" favs that have loyal, back-at-any-price supporters thus leading for scope for the layer.
When England play a "minor" nation, or Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea or Liverpool (or Celtic and Rangers) play a team from the bottom half of their division, the price just before kick-off often implies that it is a shoo-in for the favs.True, they might well end up winning comfortably, but often they don’t assert their superiority until some way into the game – hopefully until after they’ve drifted to a sufficient degree for me to back them back and go all green. In other words the odds that bear the truest reflection of the likely outcome are those on offer some time into the game, (not before kick-off )and the big-team bias/underpricing that is offered beforehand moves in the fav.layers favour (ie me). Hope that makes sense?
I’ve been thinking along these lines for some time, and should really have monitored each Prem/ International /.Celtic / Rangers and Champions League games this season to see if it was a runner. Perhaps I’ll devote next season to a statistical analysis before putting my betting boots on as it would be rash to do otherwise. Trouble is though, recording every price move every few minutes on Betfair rather spoils ones enjoyment of the game and is very time consuming – but then so is life!
Good luck with whatever you’re betting on this weekend Mikky.

[MikkyMo73]

Thanks for the detailed reply Insomniac, and yes I know where you are coming from. Please do keep a record and let me know how you get on with it – it certainly sounds a system worth trying.

I will be keeping my powder dry this weekend. I will be watching the Arsenal v Man Utd game before dashing off to the Riverside to watch Boro v Spurs. I’ve already backed Arsenal for the title as I have been so impressed with them so far, so I hope they win tomorrow.

However, I will be having some decent bets mid-week on the Champions League. It’s getting to that stage now where teams must win, and often when it’s get to this stage, the good teams normally prevail.

I will post some selections during the week. Good luck with your bets.

Mike

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