Football System

[Pompete]

This Football System is based on two factors:

1 – A statistical analysis (in my amateur way) of winning and losing sequences.
2 – A belief (again in my amateur way) that the dominance of pre-conceived ideas which are subject to perpetual re-enforcing by the media (to suit their own agenda) have a corrupting affect on the psychology of Football Betting. I’m not clever enough to explain this belief but to quote Wittgenstein:

6.52 We feel that even when all possible scientific questions have been answered, the problems of life remain completely untouched. Of course there are then no questions left, and this itself is the answer.
6.53 The solution of the problem of life is seen in the vanishing of the problem. Is this not the reason why those who have found after a long period of doubt that the sense of life became clear to them have been unable to say what constituted that sense?

In response I have developed a system which removes human input and is fully automated, thereby negating any psychological flaws we may carry with us.

The system at present is limited to the matches from the English Leagues. Each week a maximum of ten matches will be perm’d in ten £1.00 lines. Therefore, stakes are limited to £10.00 per week. However, the likelihood of ten matches meeting the criteria are remote, generally it will involve three, four and sometimes five matches.

It is my intention to refine the system so that the league positions of the teams involved in all matches are from the 2nd and 3rd quartile of their respective leagues but this addition factor does not apply for this weekends matches.

The odds used to calculate any returns are taken from Ladbrokes as published in Raceform Update’s Soccer Snips.

This Week Matches
Blackburn v Liverpool
Cheltenham v Crewe
MK Dons v Scunthorpe
Oldham v Brighton

Perms (H=Home A=Away D=Draw)
HHDHDDHHHD
DAAADAADAD
DDDAAAAADD
DDADAAADAA

Stakes
10 x £1.00

Potential Returns Per Line
1 – 179.52
2 – 168.30
3 – 139.32
4 – 183.60
5 – 162.12
6 – 151.98
7 – 233.82
8 – 195.84
9 – 214.34
10 – 148.61

[Matron]

Good luck with, this "System" Pompete.

Makes a change to something different.

Regards – Matron

[Artemis]

Pompete,

You make a very valid point about pre-conceived ideas and their reinforcement by the media affecting the psychology of football betting.
In my experience, betting on outsiders is likely to produce optimum returns where football is concerned, although this is still likely to be a loss.

Football is not scientific because matches are unique chaotic events and results are decided only by goals scored. Goals are only a crude measure of superiority in any given game, although over the season, the best teams will score the most goals.

I don’t know how this relates to the eminent philosopher, Wittgenstein, and his views on the problems of life, but good luck anyway.

[Pompete]

Balance T/D
Staked 10.00
Returned 0.00
P/L 10.00[/color:2dr33qvr]

This Week’s Matches
Sunderland v West Brom
Plymouth v QPR
Carlisle v Leicester
Crewe v Swindon

Perms (H=Home A=Away D=Draw)
HHHDDHDHDD
HHHDHDDDHH
DDHHDDDHDH
DHHHDHDHHH

Stakes
10 x £1.00

Potential Returns Per Row
1 – 46.80
2 – 34.60
3 – 34.60
4 – 78.60
5 – 74.90
6 – 49.20
7 – 106.50
8 – 49.20
9 – 55.30
10 – 55.30

[Pompete]

Balance T/D
Staked 20.00
Returned 0.00
P/L 20.00[/color:30sukm40]

This Week’s Matches
Birmingham v Reading
Sheffield United v Crystal Palace
MK Dons v Leeds United
Port Vale v Chesterfield

Perms (H=Home A=Away D=Draw)
HDHHHDDDDH
HDHDHHDHDD
AADDDADAAA
ADDAADAAAA

Stakes
10 x £1.00

Potential Returns Per Row
1 – 39.90
2 – 103.00
3 – 48.80
4 – 65.90
5 – 42.60
6 – 66.50
7 – 95.80
8 – 58.10
9 – 89.90
10 – 61.80

[Pompete]

As a comparision I’ve listed below the potential returns from – Ladbrokes Midweek Prices/Betfair Mutiple Prices*/Current Labrokes Prices on Oddschecker.

Potential Returns Per Row (As Above)
1 – 39.90 – 48.60 – 51.60
2 – 103.00 – 128.40 – 120.30
3 – 48.80 – 63.10 – 56.50
4 – 65.90 – 78.40 – 79.80
5 – 42.60 – 47.30 – 51.60
6 – 66.50 – 77.40 – 77.80
7 – 95.80 – 93.60 – 109.70
8 – 58.10 – 58.00 – 70.90
9 – 89.90 – 96.20 – 109.70
10 – 61.80 – 80.60 – 79.80

How available the current Laddies prices are I don’t know, in theory they should be available online. But it’s clear from the figures shopping around is advisable.

* to a £1.00 stake

[onefurlongout]

Hi Pete,

i like the idea of perming the 4 games and i’ve been on the lookout for a ‘system’ to follow in the new year.

Maybe its me being stupid but could I ask why you have used,

HHDHDDHHHD
DAAADAADAD
DDDAAAAADD
DDADAAADAA

HHHDDHDHDD
HHHDHDDDHH
DDHHDDDHDH
DHHHDHDHHH

and
HDHHHDDDDH
HDHDHHDHDD
AADDDADAAA
ADDAADAAAA

for each of the weeks chosen?

I think I understand why you choose the games that are in similar positions in the league as they are likely to have similar odds but i can get my head around the perm

Thanks

[Pompete]

Hi OFO,

The perm is randomly generated based on one external factor. What I am attempting to do with this part of the system is to reintroduce and replica the ‘randomness’ or as Artemis says the ‘unique chaotic events’ that are associated with football results. Of course, this can only be achieved up to a point, if at all as anything more would be pin-sticking, not that there’s anything wrong with that. I’ll fill in a few of the details and hopefully it may make some sort of sense.

The system is centred on a study of winning and losing sequences. I used 10 years worth of data: 20,000+ matches. The question I asked myself was: what is the probability of a team on a three/four/five match winning or losing sequence extending that sequence to four/five/six matches? What I found ‘sort of’ fitted with ‘that that I can’t explain’ which is based on playing competitive football for over twenty years. The analysis itself is only used to determine a ‘fair price’ and is not an integral part of the system, but again I can’t explain that part of it (what I mean by that is I can’t put it into words not that I’m withholding information.)

However, while analysing the data it became clear that the system is skewed by a relatively small number of teams each season that go on ‘extended’ extending winning or losing sequence – if that makes sense. It was found from a crude analysis (at this stage) that these teams to a high probability occupied certain positions within the league. For example: Derby County last season went on extended losing sequences of 5, 6, & 7 while (unsurprisingly) in the bottom quartile of the table. At present I haven’t factored this into the selections put up on here as I’m still working on the figures.

The external factor used in generating the perm (for each match) is simply the probability of a sequence being extended represented as the most likely result. So, if the system states the most likely outcome for four matches for example are all ‘Home Wins’ I would randomly generate the perm by excluding ‘Away Wins’ and weighting into the equation ‘The Draw’.

So, ultimately I personally have no input into the system – it’s fully automated.

[Pompete]

Balance T/D
Staked 30.00
Returned 0.00
P/L 30.00[/color:wwwguf4j]

This Week’s Matches
Carlisle v Huddersfield
Southend v Northampton
Chester v Accrington
Aston Villa v Arsenal

Perms (H=Home A=Away D=Draw)
HHHHHDDDHH
HHDDHHHDDH
DAADDAAADA
ADAADDAADA

Stakes
10 x £1.00

Potential Returns Per Row*
1 – 58.40
2 – 64.20
3 – 88.20
4 – 88.20
5 – 64.20
6 – 80.90
7 – 73.50
8 – 111.10
9 – 97.00
10 – 58.40

*Ladbrokes prices on Oddschecker

[Pompete]

Balance T/D
Staked 40.00
Returned 0.00
P/L 40.00[/color:7pl58i5b]

Today’s Matches
MK Dons v Southend
Accrington v Grimsby
Aldershot v Dag & Red
Port Vale v Rochdale
Shrewsbury v Bury

Perms (H=Home A=Away D=Draw)
ADDDAAADDA
HHDHHDHDDH
HHHDDHDHHD
HHHHDHDDHH
HHHHHHDHDD

Stakes
10 x £1.00

Potential Returns Per Row*
1 – 139.20
2 – 91.10
3 – 141.70
4 – 137.60
5 – 300.40
6 – 216.50
7 – 486.40
8 – 202.40
9 – 229.40
10 – 340.50

*Ladbrokes prices on Oddschecker

[onefurlongout]

Good luck Pete,

I went with:

Swindon vs Brighton (dodgy as Wilsons first game in charge)
Accrington v Grimsby
Aldershot v Dag & Red
Shrewsbury v Bury

Best of luck today

[onefurlongout]

Let down by Aldershot in the 87 minute today. Roll on next week!!

[Pompete]

Let down by Aldershot in the 87 minute today. Roll on next week!!

Unlucky OFO, 87th min – Did the perm work out ok?

[onefurlongout]

I think so, 10 bets at £1 each.

had it been a draw it would have paid £51ish.

Kept my interest whilst listening to the Owls get beat

[Pompete]

Balance T/D
Staked 50.00
Returned 0.00
P/L 50.00[/color:1r2xo56h]

Today’s Matches
Everton v Hull
Middlesboro v Sunderland

Perms (H=Home A=Away D=Draw)
AADD
HDHD

Stakes
4 x £2.50

Potential Returns Per Row*
1 – 33.80
2 – 48.00
3 – 20.30
4 – 28.80

*William Hill’s prices on Oddschecker

[onefurlongout]

good luck pete

Went with your two and Portsmouth and Wigan games.

Sadly I place the bet before I knew they had called one of them off

[Pompete]

Balance T/D
Staked 60.00
Returned 0.00
P/L 60.00[/color:11js9j5v]

This Week’s Matches
Tottenham v Portsmouth
Norwich v Barnsley
Preston v Burnley
Hartlepool v Northampton
Leyton Orient v Bristol Rovers

Perms (H=Home A=Away D=Draw)
AAAAAADDAD
DDHHDHHHHD
AADDADADAA
HDHHDDHHHH
HDHHDDDDHH

Stakes
10 X £1.00

Potential Returns Per Row*
1 – 533.30
2 – 250.00
3 – 240.20
4 – 240.20
5 – 157.60
6 – 160.10
7 – 246.10
8 – 149.50
9 – 224.20
10 – 375.00

*William Hill’s Internet UK Weekend Coupon

[Author]

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