- This topic has 530 replies, 30 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
- Total Posts 17716
I was asked if I could advise something for the Ebor and as my original fancy is a non runner I decided to ask rather than try and chose something myself that would probabaly end up last or not turning up "Blowing harder than a hurricane but worked brilliantly" right from the gallops…….Nothing wrong with that but still not a race to be carried away in.
2000 pts win 1000 pts place Daraahem 14/1
deducting stake
Balance +42,065
- Total Posts 17716
The grey Aurora Sky will be the talking point here. Looked all over the winner at Epsom until doing a Devon Loch.
However that was a very poor race and 2 furlongs longer than this,
I think she’s worth opposing and Frankie being an excellent judge of pace might be able to steal a march on her. She made all here last time over the same trip, has gone up in the weights but I can’t see that being a big factor if the blinkers work again.
1000 win Beau Menace
- Total Posts 17716
Golden Destiny looks a great bet at Sandown even if drifting in the market.
The rain is teaming down but the horse has run several times on softish ground so the trainer must think she goes on it.5000 win Golden Destiny 2/1
- Total Posts 17716
1000pts win Beau Menace 2nd
5000 win Golden Destiny 2/1 wonprofit for day + 9000 pts
Balance + 51,065
- Total Posts 17716
Jonjo send 3 horses to Worcester today and all have fair chances of winning.
In the first of the three races Donaldson takes on Tot Of The Knar who won here last time out for Tim Vaughan. She was very impressive and Richard Johnson was easing her down all the way up the run in. The ground will be spot on for her, she ran in some pretty hot hurdle races in the past winning 4 times and she is bound to start fav.
I notice Tim Vaughan’s other runner Carrick Oscar is napped by the racing post which makes you wonder why. He used to be with Carl Llewellyn was moved to Charlie Maan when he was said to be a flying machine at home They ended up getting their fingers burned 3 times when Noel Fehily rode him. Now Tim V has taken over he’s probably been catching the eye on the gallops. Hope to hell he doesn’t decide to bring his game to the races today as with these talking horses you never know the minute when they are going to put it in and trot up.
At first glance Donaldson looks to be a bit of a dodgy jumper but he’s just been a bit unlucky and jumps perfectly well. Looking at his form you would run a line through Donaldson on this ground as each time he has encountered softish ground he’s finished nearer last than first but he wasn’t right at the time of those races and is a differnt proposition now.
Donaldson I am told is improving all the time, is in great form at home and there will be a few sad faces if he loses today. AP will be making sure there’s no hanging about here and although Tot of the Knar was hardly of the bridle last time she’ll find him a totally different proposition to those she was up against last time. She made a complete hash of one fence last time and was a bit dodgy at another and when AP turns on the tap she can’t afford to be doing that.
He has to give the mare all but a stone but if they are going through the ground ok and AP can force the pace from a mile or so out I think it’s well worth the bet he’ll run her ragged. If however it comes to a fight he’s a very tough horse who will find plenty when asked.
_______________________________Tim Vaughan is becoming a pain in the ass today his won 6 on the trot last season which is scary form in anyone’s book. However with sucess comes weight and they must be thinking themslves this is going to be a tough race for him to win using a 3lb claimer.
The thing about Jonjo’s here is he wasn’t really fancied that much last time out. He’d been fencing and was sent over hurdles to try and sharpen up his ideas and he absolutely hacked up…be very hard to beat today unless the novelty of going back over hurdles wears off.
Present Gale who’ll handle the ground ok will still be going when this lot have cried enough IMO the only question is how far will he win by. .
2000 pts win Donaldson 5/2
Rather than back singles at the moment on the last 2 I’m having a treble in the hope Donaldson wins.
2000 pts win treble
Donaldson 5/2
Two Miles West 2/1
Present Gale 8/11.
- Total Posts 17716
I thought 2/1 was generous for Two Miles West considering he beat Mith Hill with any amount in hand last time and as Mith Hill had already won his previous race and was fit and well I can’t see where the improvemnt is going to come from. I really don’t think the weight difference is enough for them to reverse placings as Tony was toying with them from along way out and could have won by 20 lengths if he wanted to. 5/2 is way too big IMO. So much for my idea not to back him until after I saw how Donaldson ran but if he lost and I mieed the price I would keck myself.
4000 pts win Two Miles West 5/2
- Total Posts 17716
Present Gale is always held up and I see no reason why they would change those tatics here. He’s not a horse who does things quickly and outstays horses rather than sprints away from them. The gound in the straight is heavy which should make the closing stages quite gruelling and AP normally does just what he has to do to win. A few of these travel ok on softish ground so hopefully the will still be around to give him a lead to the last.
He’s too short to be backing to win and although I think he will I wouldn’t expect him to do so by more than a couple of lengths I backed him to win by 4 1/2 lengths or less at 5/2.
4000 pts Present Gale 5/2 – 4 1/2 lengths inc.
Finally I was told today that Gibb River will win from lands end to John O’Groats today and to have my you know what’s on it. It’s one of these a friend of a friend told a friend things so I’m not gong crazy on it.
Granted the last horse that came out of the yard was Brown Bomber won at 3’s. and ignored that to my cost.
At 5/4 I’m not prepared to get stuck in but if it is going to win like they say I’ll have 3/1 to win by over 2 lengths. If I am lucky one of these two will do the buisness and cover most of or all of my considerbale liabiities today
4000 pts Gibb River + 2 lengths exc 3/1
Total liability for the day 16,000 pts
- Total Posts 17716
Did I say Donaldson was a good jumper
He was actually jumping really well and that one terrible blunder plus the winner carrying him miles right after the last cost him the race. Don’t know how they could say that never affected the result…..if Donaldson had been allowed to go straight he would have gained about 4 lengths on the winner the route he took.Not many smiling faces at Jackdaw tonight but thankfully the last worked out as hoped and saved what could have been a far worse day.
Loss on day -2,000pts
Balance + 49,065
Seems the day is not over yet. I was going to bed and decided to have a look around the forum first. I spotted my old friend Carv in Lays and Plays and thought wouldn’t it be ironic if I backed one of his selections and it won
Before anyone says anything if it loses I deserve everything I get formy cheek.
It seems he fancy’s Henry Cecil’s Native Ruler. Never thought much of him myslef but who knows. The fav ran behind Dabussy in France and looked very one paced back in 3rd when the font two pulled right away from him so unless he improves a lot he wont take a lot of beating. So I got stuck into Carv’s selection.
8,000 pts Natvive Ruler 6/4
- Total Posts 17716
Terrible tipster
Balance +41,065- Total Posts 17716
Looking forward to some of the race at Ascot today but definitely not a place to have a bet. Be some fun and games going on there today.
Came across an interesting runners today of Swede Mikel Magnusson’s called Dancing Queen (Danehill Dancer) and South African. He has only a few horses but they all seem to win a race and amazingly he has a 25% strike rate. Dancing Queen holds some fancy entries but is also in a maiden auction on Friday. This is a guy worth keeping an eye on and ignoring prices he has a +38 quid record this season from 24 runners.
South African runs at Lingfield today with no entries worth talking about. I’ll be keeping my eye on both today especially Dancing Queen who may just be having a quite one before heading to Salisbury of Thursday. If the book looks wide open and nothing is being backed I might have a few quid on just in case.
Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (group 3)
I am not convinced Duncan will be up to this. His run behind Ask looks very good on paper but that was one wierd race and I don’t trust the form one bit. They got there fingers burned on him last time when he ran too free and ended up last. That looked a better race than this so waht’s to say he wont run himslef into the ground again. He’s certainly beatable.
Campanolgist and Frankie what a duo they are. Is there a more in and out duo in racing? 6 runs 3 good 3 bad I just can’t trust them but with the last 9 runners winning or being second I would just have to have a saver on.
Lurking in the background is our Wally who’s current record is pretty poor but has had a winner and a second over te past few days. His Staying On of his is a horse I like. He’s been very consistant this year winning the mile at Donnie, beaten a sh hd by Dr Freemantle, Ran well in the Brigadier and should have finished cloer then on unsuitable ground ran a very good 2nd to Famous Name at the Curragh.
If he just runs up to form he must go very close here and he’s 10/1 which amazes me.
2000 pts ew Staying on 10/1
1200 pts win Camponoligist 9/2
750 pts rfcReccession Proof won so easily the other day he was simply running in a class well below what he’s capable of. It was more like an excercise canter than a race so hopefully it okk nothing out of him. This a better race but not a great race and 2 stone less on his back he might just run this lot ragged as well.
2500 winReccession Proof 7/2
Another horse who might just be thrown in is SMS’s Danecourt. He’s taken his time to get there but now seems to have got the knack of things. I’m not big on handicaps but him being an improving horse with suuch a low weight he’s worth a cautious bet even thought the odds are a bit cramped. He may well srtart bigger than the 3/1 on offer
2500 win Danecourt sp
- Total Posts 17716
There’s been someone dabbling a bit on Dancing Queen on Betfair who was 20 on the machine and is now around 8 most of the others are taking a walk. Probably nothing but I had a bet just in case.
1000 pts Dancing Queen 12/1
- Total Posts 17716
Just got back from the pub what an awful day
5000 pts Ordoney 4/5
to attempt a late recovery
- Total Posts 17716
1000 ew Aye Aye Digby 5/1
- Total Posts 17716
100 ew At A Great Rate 11/2
- Total Posts 17716
oops 1000 ew not 100..
- Total Posts 17716
4000 Stanstill 9/4
2000 Mystified 5/1- Total Posts 17716
1000 win Hitches Dubai
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.