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- This topic has 61 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 2 months ago by
Hatter.
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- February 1, 2011 at 11:55 #338616
With all the leg pulling I forgot to put down my selection.
3.00 Southwell – Punching 7/1 1st SP 5/1
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February 1, 2011 at 16:59 #338658Nathan
you ask for my tips

Then you claim "leg pulling" – "secret codes" – buddy you scared the S**t out of me thinking you were going big bucks and then you land a 5/1 sp winner.
C’mon who’s kidding who here

Billy's Outback Shack
February 1, 2011 at 17:59 #338674With all the leg pulling I forgot to put down my selection.
3.00 Southwell – Punching 7/1
Nice one, Nathan…hope you had a couple of bob on it and had a profitable day at Taunton.
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February 1, 2011 at 21:42 #338730I never do any well at Taunton so didn’t take much money with me. Just a nice day out with Mrs H and son. I backed Killowenabbey who I thought was going well until coming to trouble. Mrs H had Marsh Court at 9’s and I did have a few bob on Punching at Southwell so overall an enjoyable day out but not a too profitable one.
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February 2, 2011 at 10:57 #338778Wednesday
EW + SPOT
BF +16.92
Newcastle 3.50 DARK BEN 8/1 bet365
Leicester 2.30 VIC’S WORLD 7/1 Wm HillCF +15.92
EW VALUE
BF +3.97
Newcastle 1.50 NATIVE COLL fc11/2 – 9/1 bet365
Lingfield AW2.40 SAIGON KITTY fc10/1 – 16/1 Wm Hill
3.10 LEAN MACHINE fc8/1 – 11/1 Wm Hill
4.10 TOWER fc10/1 – 14/1 Wm Hill
4.40 SALIENT fc8/1 – 12/1 Coral
Kempton AW5.20 CELTIC COMMITMENT fc10/1 – 16/1 V Chandler
6.20 BOUSHRA fc12/1 – 16/1 V Chandler
7.20 SAMARINDA fc10/1 – 16/1 Coral
7.50 ROYAL ENVOY fc8/1 – 10/1 V ChandlerCF +4.87
Billy's Outback Shack
February 2, 2011 at 11:44 #3387846.50 Kempton – Wasara 15/2
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February 3, 2011 at 10:56 #338908Thursday
EW + SPOT
50p ew BF +15.92
Towcester 3.10 WOODLANDS GENPOWER Fc 14/1 – 16/1 bet365
Southwell AW 4.00 LUCKY ART Fc 12/1 – 20/1 V Chandler
Wolverhampton 7.00 PIENTRE DU ROI Fc 20/1 – 28/1 V Chandler
(Although not a criteria to better the fc sp for these selections it is nevertheless nice to do so)
All three lost
CF +12.92
EW VALUE
25pew BF +4.84
Towcester
3.10 WOODLANDS GENPOWER fc 14/1 – 16/1 bet365
Southwell AW
3.30 KINGS COUNSEL fc 7/1 – 12/1 Coral
4.00 LUCKY ART fc 12/1 – 18/1 bet365
Wolverhampton
6.30 DELAGOA BAY fc 10/1 – 14/1 V Chandler
7.00 PIENTRE DU ROI fc 20/1 – 28/1 V Chandler
5 selections bring forth zero returns
CF +2.34
Billy's Outback Shack
February 3, 2011 at 13:48 #338926Hi Billion
Popped me head in again for a look around
Ew spot ticking over nicely – some possible biggies today
Will keep an interest in your new thread too – good luckChecked your EW value tips yesterday (Wed) & noticed Native Coll was in there – 1.50 Newc. Not sure how tho as no ew against it.
Janal did have ew in same race & won at 11/1 sp but you may not have got the 2pts extra value as 12/1 in paper.Bring on the Unpredictables !!
February 3, 2011 at 15:29 #338930Hello
Hatter
I think it is very possible I cocked up yesterday

I am checking out another system idea (off forum) and may have mixed the two selections as both ideas are very similar.
Billy's Outback Shack
February 4, 2011 at 10:03 #3389896.00 Wolv – John Veale 7/1
This next one missed out because it came 5th not 6th or worse LTO but I thought it looked promising….
2.50 Ling – Memphis Man 14/1
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February 4, 2011 at 11:10 #338997Friday’s possibles: –
EW + SPOT
BF +12.92
Lingfield AW 2.50 CHANTILLY JEWEL fc 10/1 – 11/1 Wm Hill
Wolverhampton 7.30 GRUDGE fc 8/1 – 15/2 Boyle’sCF +20.67
EW VALUE
+2.34
Catterick 2.15 CARRIETTAU fc12/1 – 14/1 Coral
Bangor 2.25 MUSICAL WEDGE fc 10/1 – 25/1 Wm HillCF +1.84
Billy's Outback Shack
February 5, 2011 at 09:55 #339076Saturday
EW +SPOT
BF +20.67
Ffos Las 3.45 BENFLEET BOY fc 10/1 – 7/1 P Power
Wetherby 2.10 GANSEY fc 15/2 – 6/1 bet365
Sandown 4.05 MOON OVER MIAMI fc 10/1 – 16/1 V ChandlerCF +19.04
(Sick as a parrot for missing out with FIRM ORDER having won at 14/1 & 20/1 was available early but did not play because the race was a
Novice
Handicap – BIG MISTAKE!)
EW VALUE
This idea is taking a "nose dive" and perhaps best stopped whilst still, if only just, in profit.
I very much believe in the idea as a way of finding some value and will continue variations off forum.
Billy's Outback Shack
February 11, 2011 at 21:12 #339947Hi Billion
Are you dropping the thread or just waiting for your headache from maths to die down

Still ticking the idea over myself
Sun 0 & PL 14/1 sp
Mon 0
Tues 0 & PL 13/2 & Win 5/1
Wed Win 14/1
Thurs Win 3/1 & 0 & PL 7/2
Fri PL 8/1 & 0 & Win 7/2Value is value but a wins a win

All the best if dropping
HatterFebruary 12, 2011 at 20:49 #340258Good evening
Hatter
I am backing the selections (off forum) plus some hybrids of the concept and can say it is working quite well. Charlie Bucket was the best of today 2nd, beaten by a neck at 25/1 plus a staking experiment suitable for the long prices.
So, although I have not dropped the idea but I felt there is a somewhat lack of interest and therefore I can save myself the work and time of posting and updating etc.

Billy's Outback Shack
February 13, 2011 at 06:19 #340383Good evening
Hatter
So, although I have not dropped the idea but I felt there is a somewhat lack of interest and therefore I can save myself the work and time of posting and updating etc.

I know what you mean about lack of interest.
The thread I started recently has accumulated 36 replies/posts and 29 of them were down to me.
I too have to put in a fair bit of work before posting on my thread as I first have to download the raw data from horseracebase.com in to a spreadsheet and then apply formulas and filters to highlight the system selections. As I have to be out of the house for 06:30 latest I’ve found that I need to post on here by 05:00.
Between you and me(!) I rarely bet on the horses nowadays so I haven’t got the consolation of saying to myself that it’s work I’d be doing anyway.
All of which makes me wonder why I/we bother posting in the first place. I guess it’s the slim chance of being able to take the plaudits if things go well. If things go mammaries up then I can always come up with another system.
Both of our threads appear to have had plenty of ‘views’ but unless someone comes on my thread and says something along the lines of ‘please continue to post the system qualifiers as I’m backing them with hard cash’ I think it may be time to call it a day as regards posting in the Systems section.
February 13, 2011 at 14:05 #340456Descretedata
– hello.
You ask "Why do we bother?" which is hard to answer.
For myself I have used the postings as a sounding board and by posting it can firm up my own ideas and opinions, none of which can be or ever will be 100% correct all of the time.
I have thrown many, perhaps too many suggestions to the forum and any selection posted always has carried a little of my own money.
Pompete
once posted his belief that trials should always be backed even if for the smallest possible stakes, I agree because I do think it concentrates the mind as to what you are trying to do.
Most of these ideas have some foundation of logic and as the creator it is not always possible to recognise the flaws and therefore my reasoning behind my own postings is to promote a flow of discussion and ideas.
I do recognise not all system suggestions meet with your own psyche and it becomes difficult to engage with all such ideas and expect others to do likewise, I further recognise this section of the forum does have it’s quiet times and maybe this is one of those times.
Billy's Outback Shack
February 14, 2011 at 15:23 #340642A reply that applies to both billion and discretedata (and other I guess)….
please continue to post the system qualifiers

I rarely post as I feel I have little input I can give as yet that enhances the already fascinating threads abouty systems. Believe me, I read them, digest them and note with interest the horses they come up with.
I have been playing around for a while with some kind of statistical formulae for identifying placed horses but, until I came across this forum, I had all but given up hope of being able to come up with something that took less than there are hours in the day. You’ve all given me some hope

I’m reluctant to subscribe to the HRB that has been mentioned on thses forums, as I think given time I can produce a statistical analysis of my own. I’d be curious to know if forum members consider the information it supplies to be of worth.
My own stats are based around the trainer’s current form, track history, first-timer history, lay-off history (how good the trainer is at producing a winner from a horse that has been off the track for a lengthy period) and the current form of the jockey. This includes their WinStake ratio.
It’s not been particularly successful, but I didn’t really expect it to be as yet as I haven’t got enough statistical data to go on. I’ve got about a year and a bit of results, but only started capturing ALL runners rather than just places from the New Year onwards, so I think I’ve quite a way to go before I’ve enough information to really get my teeth into it at which time I can start including the form of the actual horse (which would probably help).
So, to repeat, please don’t stop.
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