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Bigger said Mac swiney had copious discharges from his nose for a week after that race
As I said its about individual interpretation of a result, not everyone will agree.
Of course everyone will not agree, but this is just logic Mike.
Mac Swiney’s form has all come yielding or softer, and he’s ran below his best on good or better. As Ista says Bolger mentioned he wasn’t even right after the race as well.
So for him to run badly on good and on his first run, but then win on softer on his second run, is hardly boosting the form of the first run in my eyes.
As i said to begin with he was beaten by a 98 rated Fernando Vichi, who to me is a complete stayer. That was over 1m2. He’s gone out and won a Guineas.
Also, RP journos are hardly stellar, and as for Matt Rennie i wouldn’t even know who he is, but he’s wrong to suggest a “major formboost”.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!John Leeper would’ve been the best chance a woman jockey had of winning the Derby, but must say am glad Adam Kirby got the ride and not Hollie Doyle.
I do believe women jockeys can be just as good as men – if not better – on the vast majority of horses… Because once a certain level of strength is met, more strength is imo not needed. However, when it comes to potential hard pullers strength can be important… And John Leeper pulled hard at a shorter distance in his trial.
If Hollie rode John Leeper in the Derby and got carted it may have set the cause back – if not halted it completely.
Value Is EverythingId agree ginge
John leeper was keen and ran about under pressure a little bit
If I was the owner I’d want the strongest jockey available and that’s kirby
Hollie is better than kirby in general but I feel on this mount theyve made the right call
Could not disagree more. Its not a bloody strongman contest. Hollie Doyle is a better jockey than Kirby, and Geoff Capes for that matter, full stop. Its a shocking decision not to put her up and has completely put me off backing Johh Leeper. Adam Kirby ahead of Hollie Doyle FFS, absolutely mental decision.
Plenty of flat earthers still remain in racing obviously.
BUY THE SUN
TTC,
I’ve given my views on women jockeys many times on here.
I believe the best women jockeys can be just as good as the best male jockeys.
I believe a woman will be Champion jockey one day.
I believe (as Final Furlong does) Hollie Doyle is generally (on the vast majority of horses) a better jockey than Adam Kirby.
I do believe there are a very small number of horses (potential hard pullers) where Adam Kirby would give a better chance of winning than Hollie Doyle…Are we really “flat earthers” or just being realistic?
Value Is EverythingI don’t really understand the decision to put Kirby on myself but crucially it should be noted William Buick would have been their preferred option not Hollie Doyle, Buick wasn’t available for the novice at Newcastle when she rode. Having said all of that I’m surprised given Hollie has already ridden him and won on him that they are going for a completely new option. It sounds like the owners have history with Kirby so its keeping that connection rather than anything to do with the horse per se. It’s odd in the sense that its a big opportunity for somebody and I’m a bit surprised they didn’t approach the best man for the occasion (Frankie) but he’s probably already pencilled in for whichever of HD/BB Ryan Moore doesn’t go for. Unfortunate for Hollie but I dare say she’ll get a ride on the day presuming she doesn’t have other commitments to her retained owner, she’ll be one of the best spare options going in the weighing room.
As far as the horse goes he was keen at Newmarket but in a very small field that went no gallop, he’d be entitled to show signs of greeness as well on only his third start on his first track that wasn’t more or less flat. Epsom will be a different kettle of fish entirely of course and I have a hunch it’s too soon in his development but there is only one Derby so you have to give it a go.
Tinman, i can only see Kirby having ridden for the owners once? Unless they also race under a different banner?
I haven’t checked the expected values for both, but worth noting over the last 5 seasons Kirby is
16% of his rides being winners
Doyle is 13%.
She’s obviously only on the up now, but even this season
Kirby 19% and Doyle only 15%.
With Dunlop Kirby is 5 from 41 (4 of those winners coming with 3yos) and Doyle 2 from 29.
At Epsom neither have fantastic records
Kirby 2 from 22 and Doyle 2 from 23.
Realise these figures are open to different interpretations but i actually think Adam Kirby is a very good jockey.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’m with Tatling here.
I like both Kirby and Doyle as jockeys but I couldn’t pick Kirby out in a 22 runner race like I could Hollie. She has a unique style..a tight little coiled spring of energy holding onto her horse until it’s time to let him go and make his/her challenge just what JL needs I think the connections have got it wrong but hey it’s their decision at the end of the day and Epsom is a tricky course but, in the absence of Will Buick, Hollie should have kept the ride.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Doyle confirmed for One Ruler by Appleby. Similar doubts as Masar regarding the trip but his 2 YO form had a decent boost over the weekend in Ireland.
Hurricane Lane looks a bit shaky 14/1 + as well as Van Gogh @ 35/1 on the exchanges.
The thing about Mac Swiney is:
I’d generally be confident of him staying the trip under normal conditions.
I’d be very confident of him acting on soft ground.
But will he stay the trip on soft ground?
Normally a 2000 Guineas winner would be suited by conditions that test speed in the Derby (firmish ground).
But we know he likes give.Value Is EverythingI know, am just saying in case.
Forecasts are sometimes wrong.
ie Even if ground conditions come “right” they might be wrong on stamina grounds… And if ground conditions are wrong they might be right on stamina grounds.
All pretty straightforward.
Value Is EverythingGinger, do you think Mac Swiney has a soft ground action?
There is no doubting he acts very well on soft ground but to my eye his action doesn’t suggest he needs it.
What do you think?
Its whether he needs bottomless ground because it makes the mile a stamina test
So upped in trip he may not need the soft ground
Though his performances are so bad on decent ground youd think hes definitely ground dependant
He has vastly improved where it’s been soft so the evidence is there. The forecast is heading toward a minimum good ground or good to firm for derby day although I’m sure they will water if necessary. The step up in trip is the unknown but I think it will suit the O’Brien runners as much especially high definition.
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