- This topic has 530 replies, 83 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Their was a horse called Amen from AOB i was really interested to see purely because he was from a Kitza(Danehill) which is a good line. Maybe he died or has had lots of problems but always had him down as a horse to keep a eye on
Debuted at Dundalk on Sunday. Drifted badly, came in again for late support, stumbled after the break and lost his action after Seamus gave him a pig of a ride. Got a 3-day ban for careless riding.
I’ll abandon the 2yo Summary Thread and just post on this.
I’ve still got 24 names on my Derby shortlist, whittled down from the 420-odd initial entries. The big names on there are Frankel and Maxios, but actually only 8 have run & I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a winner who hadn’t raced as a juvenile.
Bugler’s Dream
Cherokee Brave
Eagles Peak
Ecliptic
Eighty Eight Red
Farrier
Fascinating
Fiorente
Frankel
Interpret
Lyric Street
Maxios
Medal of Valour
Midsummer Fair
Monamar
Pareo
Pour Moi
Sary Shayan
Suhaili
Target Point
Trade Commissioner
Voodoo Prince
William Wake
World DominationI’d actually question Frankel’s stamina (Galileo’s progeny have been rather strange, being either top class 10 furlong runners or 14f+ stayers), but at the same time I think he’s value at 6/1. He could win this on class and class alone. It’s not a price tempting enough for me to back though, perhaps at 8s or 10s.
Eighty Eighty Red & Lyric Street posted very low RPRs on their debuts so really they can be forgotten. Maxios wouldn’t interest me for the Derby, but I think he looks like a great Arc prospect. I’ve backed at 33s. I’d expect Derby Trial-Prix du Jockey Club-GP de Paris-Niel.
I’ve backed World Domination twice at 25s but Grimthorpe’s comments didn’t thrill me the other day, saying he’d done ‘precious little’. Unless he’s debuted in the next 30 days I’ll happily lay it off. I was rather annoyed to see Claude Duval put up Suhaili the other day, but he was still there at 275s on Betdaq. He ran an eye-catching race but with Jarvis having retired, I wonder if he’s just not that good. Surely the prospect of a Derby winner would’ve spurred him on for a further 3 months?
Pour Moi’s an interesting O’Brien runner having debuted at Longchamp for Fabre. He was promptly transferred to AOB in the ownership of Michael Tabor. Again, I’ve backed him.
The list will be a lot clearer by the end of April anyway, since theoretically anything without a run just won’t be able to get the experience needed to win a Derby.
The horse that really interests me though, despite breaking Trend #1, is Dubai Prince. He debuted at Gowran Park, a non-Group 1 track, but High Chaparral and Hawk Wing (1st & 2nd in 2002) debuted at non-Grade 1 tracks, as have the vast majority of Aidan O’Brien Derby contenders.
I think it’s significant that he ran in and won the same race that Grey Swallow did in 2003, the Killavullan Stakes, and did so with the same RP comments; ‘quickened’, ‘impressive’. I was just as impressed and texted a friend immediately, just grateful for the Guineas contender I spent all of last Autumn looking for. Peter Martins was my first, Dubai Prince my second. Dermot Weld was very downbeat on his Guineas chances after the race, but Godolphin look like they’re willing to try his chances and in what looks like a weak Guineas bar the favourite, I think he has an outstanding chance, of a place at the very least. Weld was also very bullish about the horse last week, despite him having been transferred to Al Zarooni’s yard. I can’t get those comments out of my head and think he’s a great bet for both Classics, 20/1 and 12/1.
Well I’ve just finished reviewing my shortlist and just 15 names remain.
The 4 who have run are Ecliptic, Frankel, Midsummer Fair and World Domination
. Of the 11 without a run, 1 is trained by Gosden, 1 Stoute, 1 Beguigne, 1 apparently not in training and a colossal 7 (!!!) owned by Sheikh Mohammed whose trainer is ‘Unknown’. I went through godolphin.com several months ago while updating the list and none of them were listed on there.
World Domination’s debut garnered a RPR of 99 as well as the comment ‘quickened’.
I’ve had a quick look at debuting RPRs. I haven’t looked at the Derbies between 1997 and 2003 yet except for a few choice runners, but 1995-96 and 2004 onwards I have got info on for all the runners.
8 were awarded a RPR of 99+ on their debuts; Lammtarra, Munwar, Specrum, Alhaarth, Dubai Millennium, Galileo, Dubawi (RPR of 99 for debut) and American Post. 5 of those won Classics. A formidable list I’m sure you’ll agree. Goodness knows how many Group 1s there, 18?
None of the winners between 97 and 03 (bar Galileo) got a RPR higher than 92 (Sinndar).
All in all it marks World Domination down as a hugely exciting prospect, far more exciting than I’d first imagined and should absolutely be backed on every start until he’s beaten, if he is.
Was 9/4 earlier, wow (no pun intended). Will place my bet after the off. Wanna make sure she breaks ok.
Hope Wonder wins am on at 9/4 and 25 to win Oaks
And any thoughts on the trails this week at Chester,Lingfield and Ireland as well.
Hi all and especially zarkava
Can I ask what peoples thoughts are of Nathaniel and why anyone may have dismissed him for Derby. 25/1 at moment and form looks really good. Pedigree looks along right lines for derby too.
Also noted that was backed heavily – 7/1 to 3/1 – in maiden that pegassus (Frankel) won and only lost out a short head!!!!
Finally see he’s declared for chester on thurs and forecast as 7/2 3rd fav I think due to his current rating
yorkiedips
Midsummer Fair my sole Derby interest on Saturday. Hope he gets beaten.
Rainbow Springs in a maiden at Ascot on Friday. Not in the Oaks Trial. Rather hoping she runs in the Musidora as difficult to envisage her running in the Oaks if she runs in a maiden.
Didn’t back her, already had a small fortune on for the Oaks, but my goodness that was impressive. Quickened extremely nicely off a slow pace + effectively won the bridle going away from them. Delighted with that. She’ll improve about another stone between now + Epsom + goes there with a big chance. Can’t see much else but Blue Bunting to beat.
Yeah i should have backed her Antepost but more than happy to wait on the day because she wont be much shorter than 5/1 on the day and i take that price on the day.
Just wondering should i double up on Await the Dawn 2moro in that Group 3
Especially since he races from the front
Can I ask what peoples thoughts are of Nathaniel and why anyone may have dismissed him for Derby. 25/1 at moment and form looks really good. Pedigree looks along right lines for derby too.
Also noted that was backed heavily – 7/1 to 3/1 – in maiden that pegassus (Frankel) won and only lost out a short head!!!!
Finally see he’s declared for chester on thurs and forecast as 7/2 3rd fav I think due to his current rating
yorkiedips
I highlighted this colt on page 10 of this thread.
The form of that maiden is very strong, with the third-placed, Genius Beast (whom Nathaniel also defeated next time behind Picture Editor) winning on his final start as a 2YO and on his seasonal debut in the Sandown Classic Trial.
The overall form of Frankel is very solid and any colt that gets as close as Nathaniel did has to be very useful. Frankel has obviously improved, but he held form with Genuis Beast next time and both colts have impressed subsequently.
I still think he could be more of a Leger type, but I’m not convinced this promises to be a strong renewal and he could be thereabouts. Bred to do the job and well related. I have taken the 25/1 about him.
My other fancies for the race are the Michael Stoute duo, Carlton House and Sea Moon. The former looked ultra-impressive in defeating a good colt of Marcus Tregoning’s on his second start by 9L. That colt, Yaseer, would win next time and finish a fine third in the Craven.
Sea Moon is closely related to some very smart performers, most notably Brian Boru, Kitty O’Shea and the dam of Workforce.
His form is nothing to shout about, but is open to plenty of improvement – bred to develop into a smart 3YO.
World Domination is another obvious candidate. Won nicely on his debut (third won since) from a potentially decent stable companion.
Beautiflly bred and related to a host of winners, he could be another who, should he fail at Epsom, develop into a Leger type.
Prix Greffulhe at Saint Cloud at the weekend; Vadamar, Maxios and Pour Moi all running.
Good news is that Vadamar’s connections are running a pacemaker in the shape of Dildar which will suit all 3 horses I have mentioned above.
A much improved performance is expected from Maxios according to his connections, they are quoted as saying he has been impressing since his seasonal debut.
I wonder if Pour Moi won this well would he then become Coolmore’s number 1 for Epsom, stretching it I know! However, he should enjoy the likely much stronger pace than last time.
Almost no chance. Aidan has 3 possibles. Pour Moi actually finished 8th on his racecourse debut at a lesser track, the RP updated their info on him.
Midsummer Fair my sole Derby interest on Saturday. Hope he gets beaten.
Rainbow Springs in a maiden at Ascot on Friday. Not in the Oaks Trial. Rather hoping she runs in the Musidora as difficult to envisage her running in the Oaks if she runs in a maiden.
Midsummer Fair not entered on Saturday or the Dante, think I just presumed he would be. Difficult to envisage him running at Epsom now.
Rainbow Springs a confirmed runner in the 10f maiden at Ascot.
Nathaniel was absolutely hating that ground. You could see his knee action was significantly higher than anything else. Obviously Treasure Beach is nowhere near #1 at Ballydoyle, doubtful he’s even in the top 5 Derby-type horses. Nathaniel would be the one to follow in my opinion, but only with cut. He’s done exceptionally well to get that close IMO. Absolutely one to follow for the Leger with softer Autumn ground. Should probably run in the King Edward VII next, he’ll get taken off his feet at Epsom and it’ll do him no good whatsoever.
As per my St Leger thread this morning, Nathaniel will without doubt improve for further and deffo looks like he needs cut.
He didn’t beat a great deal, but I thought Nathaniel did it nicely, Shabby.
Frankel had him in his pocket on his debut, but take that one out of the race he would have put a few lengths between himself and a future winner, Genuis Beast. That one looks sets to make his seasonal bow this Saturday (entered in two races on the Sandown card).
He looks the type to keep improving all season and it’s hard to know far he can go, but I get the impression that Epsom will come a shade too soon for him.
I like his attitude and his pedigree suggests that he could be a real Leger type. I think he’s crying out for a bit of give and would thrive around a track like Donny. He doesn’t appear to do anything too quickly, but travels well, keeps galloping and the long straight would play to his strengths.
I like him.
I don’t know what connections have planned for Nathaniel now, but I wouldn’t rule him out of either the Epsom or Irish Derby. Would arguably be more ideally suited by the Curragh, but a lot would depend on the ground at Epsom. Not convinced the King Edward would suit.
I have no doubt he was the best colt in the race today – the winner was just more ideally suited by the course and conditions.
Like I suggested, he doesn’t do anything too quickly and would prefer a more galloping course with a long straight.
Treasure Beach has done nothing wrong during his short career. Golden Sword won the Chester Vase at 25/1 and I heard the same things after his success – Ballydoyle surely have ‘bigger guns to fire’. Golden Sword ran a solid race at Epsom and the supposedly superior colts – Fame And Glory and Rip Van Winkle – were not far away.
Rather than suggest ‘Ballydoyle have colts with stronger Derby credentials’, I think a more accurate description would be ‘Ballydoyle HOPE to have colts with stronger Derby credentials’.
Recital (a colt I noted as one to follow at the end of last season) was beaten on his seasonal bow, but Treasure Beach has come out and won a recognised Derby trial from two last time out winners (Golden Sword, Doctor Fremantle and Soldier Of Fortune all acquitted themselves admirably at Epsom).
He has already proven himself a legitimate Derby candidate.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.