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Unlikely that we’ll see another 50/1 shot win but you never know…two against the field and are highly unoriginal.
Duke of Firenze promises to be much better than his current mark in the 90s and feel he won comfortably last time even though it was a short head. Stoute is in good form and if genuine good ground looks sure to be involved if getting the breaks.
Capt Dunne is something of a standing dish in this race and is much better than when down the field last year. Despite being an 8 year old he showed plenty of spark last time at Chester and is undoubtedly well handicapped. Again if getting a bit of luck will be in the shake up.
At first glance I thought this looked like another minefield but after further analysis I’m not so sure.
You could have heard a pin drop last year on course after Stone Of Folca had got up but I remember going back through my RP at the time and kicking myself for letting a horse that was thought good enough to run in the Nunthorpe as a 2 year old (when he went off as short as 10/1) be able to go off at 50/1 on his seasonal debut (his only win the previous year was in his debut) from a mark 11lb lower than it was 12 months prior.
This horse has only won twice in his life in fact – both times first time up and both times was thrown into G1 and G2 company for his next 2 or 3 races before being dropped back to listed / handicap company.
I’m not one prone to struggling to find excuses for beaten horses but I have to make an exception here. With this animal, take out his G1/G2 races and for a horse who clearly goes well fresh you’ll see that the only times he’s performed poorly are when he’s been tuned out again within only 1 or 2 weeks.
Here’s his races for the past 2 season AFTER his seasonal debut win;
21st May 2011 – G2 race beaten 4 1/2 lengths.
14th Jun 2011 – G1 (Kings Stand) beaten 7 3/4 lengths.
28th Jul 2011 – G2 beaten 8 1/2 lengths.
4th Aug 2011 – a week later having travelled to France was beaten 5 1/2 lengths in a listed event.
29th Aug 2011 – As a 3 year old was beaten a little over 3 lengths over C/D carrying top weight against his elders from a mark 3lb higher than he runs off Saturday week.
6th Sep 2011 – a week later finishes 5th of 5 beaten nearly 8 lengths in a Class 4 Leicester conditions event when allowed to go off at 8/1.19th Jun 2012 – G1 Kings stand again and well beaten over 13 lengths.
3rd Aug 2012 – G2 beaten 5 lengths.
11th Aug 2012 – a week later is beaten a touch over 8 lengths in Ascot handicap, albeit from a mark 4lb higher than his current OR.
27th Aug 2012 – no disgrace in being beaten less than 2 lengths over C/D again carrying top weight from a 2lb higher mark than present – especially given it was only 2 weeks since his previous run.
19th Sep 2012 – beaten 2 1/2 lengths again from top weight in a York handicap. While this was a respectable performance at the end of a season from a horse best caught fresh, York is a track specialist course and he had run poorly there on his only previous visit – admittedly when outclassed as a 2 year old in the Nunthorpe.His 2 year old season followed a similar path with a good debut 2nd before a series of group race places – including a 2nd in the Molecomb.
While it’s clear he’s not a group class horse what is just as clear is his liking for a break between races.
He’s a C/D winner, again returning on his seasonal debut from just 3lb higher than last years win when even the RP analysis notes that he was value for more than the bare form, after having travelled much further than the 2nd & 3rd due to coming across the track from an unfavourable stalls position – an important favour in this race.
Back down to an OR of 96 if he gets a half decent draw he will go very, very close and even without it, as he he proved last year, he still cannot be discounted.
There’s nothing available like the 50/1 from last year but I won’t be making the same mistake again by overlooking him and the best priced 14s with 365 is good enough for me.
Captain Dunne, while a past winner, has also been beaten in this race more than once from a similar mark – admittedly narrowly on one occasion.
Duke Of Firenze is up 6lb for a slightly cosy win and while not without a chance is surely favourite due to connections.
Lee
Duke Of Firenze looks poor value. he scrambled home when 6/4 fav at Goodwood and then couldn’t follow up when fav at York, although he ran well. Looking back to his Goodwood race he already had a run compared to the third horse that day Fair Value, who was making his seasonal debut. Fair value has run twice at Epsom, being 1st and 2nd in those efforts. He has a length and a half to find with Stoute’s horse but he is 6 lbs better in this time and should strip fitter now.
Fair Value seems best at 5F, he has won at the track, he made a pleasing seasonal debut and has form with the favourite for the race. It doesn’t seem to make sense that one horse is 9/1 and the other is 20/1.
Fair Value each-way for me. 20/1 Bet Victor
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lost confidence in DOF now after that poor York run, didn’t realise he was going to run there! With the weather looking rather temperamental in the next few days I will wait until the day now, Confessional would be interesting if the rain came.
Lost confidence in DOF now after that poor York run, didn’t realise he was going to run there! With the weather looking rather temperamental in the next few days I will wait until the day now, Confessional would be interesting if the rain came.
I didn’t think he was poor at York, he wasn’t beaten that far. He was 9/1 before that race for Epsom and was pushed out to 12/1 after but then came back in to 9/1. I think there is a bit of Stoute fervour at the moment because he is among the winners again after a couple of bad seasons and they are going off shorter than the form warrants at times.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hold your Stone of Folca bets, he must have fast ground BUT I totally agree given good fast ground he will go very close indeed, il know more when I walk across the track
My 2 outsiders are Taajub and humidor
Lost confidence in DOF now after that poor York run, didn’t realise he was going to run there! With the weather looking rather temperamental in the next few days I will wait until the day now, Confessional would be interesting if the rain came.
I didn’t think he was poor at York, he wasn’t beaten that far. He was 9/1 before that race for Epsom and was pushed out to 12/1 after but then came back in to 9/1. I think there is a bit of Stoute fervour at the moment because he is among the winners again after a couple of bad seasons and they are going off shorter than the form warrants at times.
Finished 5th, I may be harsh I expected a bit better to be honest being 4/1 fav even if he did keep on. I don’t think soft ground would suit him, hence why I’m now favouring Confessional. My confidence in my original choice Capt Dunne is also waining with the threat of softer ground.
Hold your Stone of Folca bets, he must have fast ground BUT I totally agree given good fast ground he will go very close indeed, il know more when I walk across the track
My 2 outsiders are Taajub and humidor
yeah your right gdc1 i really fancy stone of folca (as much as you can fancy a horse in a 5 forlong 20 ruuner sprint) but he needs the ground as firm as pos had a wee nible at 12/1 but wont go again until the day if he runs
Yeah I agree. My prior confidence is slightly on the slide as he does like to hear his hooves rattle.
Best even talking about pulling him out if it’s on the soft side.
I’ll be there again on Saturday and my two planned biggest bets (Stone of Folca & St Nic) would both prefer this rain to p155 right off.
Lee
Stone of Folca gets a great draw this time around in 15.
With Duke of Firenze, Captain Dunne, Long Awaited & Stone of Folca all drawn within 6 of the stands rail and Fair Value only another 2 across in 13 it’s not hard to imagine these dominating – weather permitting.
Shocking draw for the 3 year old SmoothTalkinRascal in 1.
Now if the rain just stays away…
Lee
Stone of Folca gets a great draw this time around in 15.
With Duke of Firenze, Captain Dunne, Long Awaited & Stone of Folca all drawn within 6 of the stands rail and Fair Value only another 2 across in 13 it’s not hard to imagine these dominating – weather permitting.
Shocking draw for the 3 year old SmoothTalkinRascal in 1.
Now if the rain just stays away…
Lee
Going is good to soft, soft in places at the moment. My horse, Fair Value hasn’t raced on softish since her very first run so I’m not sure on that score. I am reasonably confident of a decent run from a favourable draw at a good price.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Interesting that most of the main protagonists have their known best form on a fast surface.
Possibility that the opening line from the OP may well come true yet again and the race could be primed for an upset.
Lee
Interesting that most of the main protagonists have their known best form on a fast surface.
Possibility that the opening line from the OP may well come true yet again and the race could be primed for an upset.
Lee
The clerk of the course now reckons the ground should dry out to good by Saturday, as the Friday and Saturday forecasts are for dry and sunny respectively.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Top Cop is an interesting one with a 7lb claimer aboard and some new headgear. On ratings, he could win, but it seems like you never know which Top Cop will show up.
The previous winners Stone Of Folca and Captain Dunne look more reliable and handicapped nicely for this.
Unlikely that we’ll see another 50/1 shot win but you never know…two against the field and are highly unoriginal.
Duke of Firenze promises to be much better than his current mark in the 90s and feel he won comfortably last time even though it was a short head. Stoute is in good form and if genuine good ground looks sure to be involved if getting the breaks.
Capt Dunne is something of a standing dish in this race and is much better than when down the field last year. Despite being an 8 year old he showed plenty of spark last time at Chester and is undoubtedly well handicapped. Again if getting a bit of luck will be in the shake up.
Quite an incredible finish by Duke Of Firenze to come from where he did to get up in a 5f dash on that track. I had hopes when Fair Value hit the front but when you look through her form she has a tendency to get overhauled close home and so it proved again. Still, at least she held on for 4th and that’s better than the kicks in the Stones of Folca I’ve been getting recently.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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