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It was in fact 4 lengths, as per the Racing Post website. Not “in fact less”, as you claim. I never once said missing lengths at the start can simply be added onto the winning distance, but missing 4 lengths – I reiterate, 4 lengths – would put most horses at an irreversible disadvantage, and it has to be factored into the rating.
I don’t think 30 lengths is an exaggeration, have you watched a replay of the race? I’ll admit that was a complete guess, but I’d wager I’m not far off. Whatever the correct distance, the visual impression you get would suggest that nothing but an exceptional performance would see her win in that situation. Bearing in mind she had an extra 4 lengths to make up from the start to begin with.
A 3 year old filly officially rated 120 is a top-class filly, for comparison Winter is rated 119 over a mile. For Zarkava to come from where she did, after the start she had, and to win with so much in hand at the line, I would put that performance at 130 in TFR.
Unlike you I have no set parameters for what I deem ‘exceptional,’ there are so many variables at play in each race that what I consider exceptional is completely relative. I’m going to be a little expedient here and say that in and around 130+ would probably make up the ‘exceptional’ category for me. Yes she only won by two lengths, but how many lengths would she have had to surrender at the start for her to lose the race? A lot more than 4 I reckon.
Like Nwalton said earlier in the thread, you never find out how good horses like Zarkava are ratings-wise until they are beaten.
I’d like to add that Zarkava equalled the course record for the Vermeille that day, even after surrendering those contentious 4 lengths. What’s more impressive still, is that it was on Good to Soft ground, although French officials have been known to get that wrong. Regardless, it gives further credence to what was without a doubt an exceptional performance.
One can not be “advantaged” by something without someone else being “disadvantaged”.
You yourself say Shareta was aided by having the run of the race from the front.
Therefore, others were disadvanged by that said advantage to varying degrees, depending on how far away they were from the horse who was positionally advantaged.Without that disadvantage I believe Snow Fairy and So You Think would have finished in front of Shareta. ie Snow Fairy and So You Think ran below their best… And therefore what I am saying is judging Danedream’s Arc by Snow Fairy and So You Think – like you were trying to do earlier – does not give a fair reflection.
Yes, am sure they held So You Think up in order to give the horse the best opportunity to stay the trip… And yes, if So You Think had been ridden prominently may well have been too free without cover… But just because a horse is incapable of being ridden closer to the pace, does not mean he is not inconvenienced in races favouring those ridden more prominently (and he’s out the back).
Yes, Shareta is a prominent racer, that’s how she likes to race. Yes, that is exactly why she had an advantage in a race that favoured those ridden prominently.
Value Is EverythingDanedream has Enable covered by the level of opposition in her Gr.1 wins and it´s not even that close right now.
Danedream´s Arc field > Enable´s Arc field
Danedream´s KG field > Enable´s KG field
Danedream´s 2nd Baden-Baden win > Enable´s English Oaks field
Danedream´s 1st Baden-Baden win > Enable´s Irish Oaks field
Danedream´s Berlin win > Enable´s Yorkshire Oaks fieldAlso Danedream won the Gr.1 in Baden-Baden and Berlin by 6L and 5L in the lead up to the Arc.
That logic seems incredibly flawed to me Ginger, I’m not buying that at all. It was the second fastest Arc ever ran, so how in the love of god would it have suited two hold up horses in Snow Fairy and So You Think to run more prominently?
There isn’t such a thing as a race that inherently suits prominent runners (except maybe at Chester), so I’m not sure where you’re getting the impression that Danedream’s Arc only suited prominent runners. It all depends on the various factors at play in the race that day, and judging by the time of the race, coming off the pace was the best strategy for hold up horses on the day. You are making this incredibly black and white, which as we know racing never is.
Shareta was a horse who loved racing prominently = raced prominently and ran well.
Snow Fairy and SYT were both horses who raced off the pace (at 12f) = raced off the pace in a fast run race and ran well.That form adds up to me. Danedream’s Arc at least = Enable’s Arc.
I’ll make a comparison with this year’s Arc to aid in my argument.
Order of St George is a horse who will perform best over 12f when racing prominently, just like Shareta. He probably ran to the highest potential form figure that he could have achieved, aided by the fact that he raced prominently. Exactly like Shareta. Are you beginning to see me reasoning?
Cloth of Stars on the other hand is a horse that will perform best over 12f when raced off the pace, exactly like Snow Fairy. Cloth of Stars also achieved the highest possible form figure he could have ran to, which was no doubt aided by him racing off the pace.
By your reasoning, because Order of St George was able to run to a figure of 128 by racing prominently, Cloth of Stars was at a disadvantage by racing off the pace, and therefore was not able to run to his highest level of form. So, you believe Cloth of Stars is actually capable of running higher than 132 over 12f? I think now you’ll begin to see the invalidity of your argument about race positioning.
Every horse is different. Running styles, stamina, and various race day factors such as ground, number of runners and pace have to be taken into account. You simply brush over these with one broad stroke.
EDIT: For the record, I never said Shareta had an advantage over the others racing prominently, I simply said she was “aided by having the run of the race at the front.” This was her optimum position. i.e: she would have been at a disadvantage running further down the field.
There is a big difference.
EDIT: For the record, I never said Shareta had an advantage over the others racing prominently, I simply said she was “aided by having the run of the race at the front.” This was her optimum position. i.e: she would have been at a disadvantage running further down the field.
There is a big difference.
What is your definition of the term “run of the race” then, Voleur.
“Run of the race” is most often used to describe one who’s been advantaged by racing prominently. ie Either when rivals have met trouble in behind, or if quick ground (or slow pace) meant it’s difficult to peg the prominent racer back.
But “run of the race” can also be used with horses held up. eg When one from the back has not got involved in a pace burn up and comes through to beat exhausted horses.
Your quote told me you believed Shareta advantaged by having “the run of the race from the front”.
Value Is EverythingI think it’s clear this debate has ran it’s course if we’re now nitpicking over terminology.
It’s obvious from the time of the race, that there is no way Shareta could have had any ‘advantage’ from racing prominently, the race was just too fast. But it did allow her to run to her very best level of form, purely because that style of running suits her best. I thought I made that point very clear despite your misinterpretation.
That logic seems incredibly flawed to me Ginger, I’m not buying that at all. It was the second fastest Arc ever ran, so how in the love of god would it have suited two hold up horses in Snow Fairy and So You Think to run more prominently?
There isn’t such a thing as a race that inherently suits prominent runners (except maybe at Chester), so I’m not sure where you’re getting the impression that Danedream’s Arc only suited prominent runners. It all depends on the various factors at play in the race that day, and judging by the time of the race, coming off the pace was the best strategy for hold up horses on the day. You are making this incredibly black and white, which as we know racing never is.
Shareta was a horse who loved racing prominently = raced prominently and ran well.
Snow Fairy and SYT were both horses who raced off the pace (at 12f) = raced off the pace in a fast run race and ran well.That form adds up to me. Danedream’s Arc at least = Enable’s Arc.
On Timeform Ratings: If Snow Fairy and So You Think ran to form in the Arc, then the distances from them to the winner mean Danedream is not just the equal of Enable; she’d be the best female in around 75 years of Timeform Ratings.
Sorry, can’t believe that.I believe it was not the second fastest run Arc at Longchamp, but THE fastest. But like you, I don’t believe French going reports either. Times of the races that day indicate it was in fact at least good-firm. The Arc is only very rarely run on a firm surface, so you’re effectively only judging Danedream’s year against a handful of others anyway. It may well be that of the small number of Arcs run on a firmish surface Danedream’s is the fastest.
In my experience there are three types of race where it can be an advantage to race prominently.
One is on very soft ground – where most horses struggle to quicken through the bog.
One is when they don’t go a fast enough pace early, with hold up horses trying to close at a time when those at the front are still quickening.
The other is on firmish ground – where (similar to above) horses in a prominent position are able to last longer.Just because a horse likes to be held up, does not mean there’s never a race that disadvantages held up horses.
If a hold up horse has a tremendous turn of foot – like Zarkava – they can be favoured by the circumstances above (as in have a better chance of winning) because of that electric change of speed. Even though the “form” shown often does not do it justice – because the distances back to placed horses are less. But there are very few of these.
Some hold up horses – like Snow Fairy and So You Think – are not immediate quickeners; they instead quicken gradually and able to maintain that speed for a long time. It’s this second type of hold up horse who can lose out in races that favour prominent runners.
Value Is EverythingI think it’s clear this debate has ran it’s course if we’re now nitpicking over terminology.
It’s obvious from the time of the race, that there is no way Shareta could have had any ‘advantage’ from racing prominently, the race was just too fast. But it did allow her to run to her very best level of form, purely because that style of running suits her best. I thought I made that point very clear despite your misinterpretation.
It would be a very facile argument to say neither Snow Fairy nor So You Think ran to form in Danedream’s Arc Ginger, there isn’t sufficient evidence to support that claim. It is much more likely that Shareta ran to a career best, and a whopping career best of +8lbs , which was no doubt aided by her having the run of the race at the front.
It’s not “nitpicking” Voleur, you’re just seemingly going back on what you said earlier.
From what you now say “run of the race” means to you:
If every horse is able to race the way it likes – ie Front runners are able to front run, those who like to track pace track pace, ditto mid div types, held up types and those dropped out… Then all the field can be described as having “the run of the race”, all at the same time.
Your above quote makes no sense now.
Have I got this right? You now say Snow Fairy and So You think also got “the run of the race” because they too were able to race how they like to race while (according to you) running to form?Value Is EverythingRun of the race implies advantage, and advantage is what I thought this debate was about. So it is an important phrase.
Never mind Voleur; enjoyed the debate while it was happening, even if we were apparently talking at cross-purposes.
Value Is EverythingGinger let me try clarify my arguments for you, because it would appear I have failed in that regard judging by your responses.
The core argument, or the key point I am trying to make, is that I think Enable’s Arc should be rated at 132 alongside Dandream’s. There is nothing about the form of Enable’s Arc that suggests to me it is a whole 2lbs superior. If anything I would have it slightly inferior, but I’m going to give her the benefit of the doubt and put it at 132.
Every argument I have made was intended to prove that Enable’s Arc was not in fact superior to Danedream’s. Therefore it is crucial you understand, that I am perfectly satisfied with the 132 rating Timeform allocated Danedream, and the marks they allocated the various runners in her race. I am not trying to make a case that it should be higher, please understand that.
On Timeform Ratings: If Snow Fairy and So You Think ran to form in the Arc, then the distances from them to the winner mean Danedream is not just the equal of Enable; she’d be the best female in around 75 years of Timeform Ratings. Sorry, can’t believe that.
Therefore, I am not implying So You Think ran to his highest possible TFR of 131 which he achieved over 10f, but I am saying he ran to the mark Timeform allotted him for that race. Whereas you seem to be implying they overrated not only his performance, but the entire race.
I believe Shareta, Snow Fairy and SYT, all ran to the level of form required to put Danedream’s win on a mark of 132. Perhaps Snow Fairy and SYT could have been a length better off on another day, but I highly doubt it.
My point is, they all ran to a level of form which was deemed sufficient to award Danedream a mark of 132. I fully agree with Timeform on that.
What I don’t agree with however, is that Enable’s Arc was a whole 2lbs superior to Danedream’s. I have already outlined my reasons why. There is nothing about the form of Enable’s race, or her performance in it, that suggests to me that it should be given a mark of 134 compared to Danedream’s 132.
There is no way Cloth of Stars was able to run to 132 over 12f in my opinion, I put his performance equal to Shareta’s. Likewise for Snow Fairy and Ulysses, and most definitely for Order of St George and So You Think. There is just no way OOSG ran to 128 that day. Maybe he has the potential to run to 128 over 12f, but I thought he was actually below form that day, largely down to an average ride by Donnacha. I think he should have kicked for home far earlier like he did in the Irish Leger. Regardless, this is my own personal opinion.
What I consider nearly sacrilegious however, is the fact that Enable’s win is rated equally to Treve’s first Arc. Personally I would have Treve’s win at 136, but I was satisfied with 134 until they went and put Enable’s win at the same level. Stick a big + beside her mark of 132 if you have to, but don’t put her on the same level as Treve. I can’t have that.
Now Ginger it’s over to you. I hope I’ve made my position in this debate a lot clearer to you, but I am still at a loss for what point you are actually arguing.
Do you really believe that Cloth of Stars would have been able to dead-heat with Danedream on that performance?
When you look at it that way I think you begin to see the comical side of his rating.
With regards to the phrase ‘run of the race,’ to me that doesn’t necessarily mean the horse has an advantage over the field. It simply means they we’re allowed to do their own thing out in front. So basically it applies to any front-running horses.
At least that is my interpretation of the phrase. So no, I am not “going back on anything I said earlier.”
When I said in my first post:
Snow Fairy and So You Think have excellent Group 1 winning records, but it does not mean they both ran to form in Danedream’s Arc. Both came from further back than the two that beat them, winding their way through. Personally, given their overall records I think it’s fairly obvious Snow Fairy and So You Think are better horses than Shareta, so the fact they were 3rd and 4th means nothing as far as how good Danedream is.
…ie Timeform have So You Think as running to 124, some 8 lbs below his best of 132. Snow Fairy as running to 122, some 6 lbs below her best.
I said “Snow Fairy and So You Think have excellent Group 1 winning records, but it does not mean they both ran to form in Danedream’s Arc”.Yet you repled to that by saying:
It would be a very facile argument to say neither Snow Fairy nor So You Think ran to form in Danedream’s Arc Ginger, there isn’t sufficient evidence to support that claim.
ie You said my arguement that both Snow Fairy and So You Think ran below form in the Arc was “very facile” and that there “isn’t sufficient evidence to support that claim”…
But now you’re saying:
Therefore, I am not implying So You Think ran to his highest possible TFR of 131 which he achieved over 10f, but I am saying he ran to the mark Timeform allotted him for that race. Whereas you seem to be implying they overrated not only his performance, but the entire race.
I believe Shareta, Snow Fairy and SYT, all ran to the level of form required to put Danedream’s win on a mark of 132. Perhaps Snow Fairy and SYT could have been a length better off on another day, but I highly doubt it.
My point is, they all ran to a level of form which was deemed sufficient to award Danedream a mark of 132. I fully agree with Timeform on that.
…So now you are agreeing with both myself and Timeform that Snow Fairy and So You Think were below form? Not a “very facile arguement” after all then?
Am glad you’ve come around to my way of thinking, Voleur.
You showed in your first post the 1, 2, 3, 4:
Danedream achieved a rating of 132 for easily beating:
2nd Shareta – winner of the Vermeille and Yorkshire Oaks
3rd Snow Fairy – Epsom Oaks, Irish Oaks and Irish Champion Stakes winner
4th So You Think – multiple Group 1 winner.My first post was not challenging Danedream’s 132 rating. Although it is hard for me to come to a definite opinion on who’s best in a comparisson of years; I was just clearing the way to understanding why Timeform believe Enable is a 2 lbs better horse than Danedream. Merely pointing out that your 1, 2, 3, 4 (together with all the races SYT and SF won) – was not as good as that basic reading of form suggests… Because neither of those two horses ran to form in the Arc and therefore their place in this discussion is a false one. ie It’s impossible for me or anyone else to argue Enable’s 2 1/2 lengths+ beating of Cloth Of Stars, Ulysses and Order Of St George is worth more than a 5 lengths+ beating of Shareta, Snow Fairy and So You Think… UNLESS people realise the latter pair were BELOW FORM.
Sorry, I don’t think I can face a discussion on Enable’s Arc at this point in time, Voleur.
May be I’ll come back to it later.Value Is EverythingOh Ginger that is one hell of a twist you’ve put on my words, and I dare say you know it.
This whole argument about Snow Fairy and So You Think ‘running to form,’ has been completely in the context of Danedream’s Arc. Sometimes I feel like we are debating two completely different topics here.
You’re initial post gave me – and another few posters on this thread – the impression that you were trying to drag down the form of Danedream’s Arc. In fact you literally said those words yourself.
So when you say:
My first post was not challenging Danedream’s 132 rating.
That is in direct contradiction to when you said:
Always possible to look at any form and drag it down a pound or two (as I’ve shown above).
So yes, your goal since the beginning has evidently been to drag down the form of Danedream’s Arc, and you did this by arguing Snow Fairy and So You Think did not run to the level of form Timeform said they did. Which is a very facile argument without sufficient evidence.
To which I responded by arguing they did indeed ‘run to form,’ in the context of Danedream’s Arc, as there was nothing to suggest otherwise.
Of course So You Think couldn’t have run to 131 Ginger, then Danedrean’s rating would have been in the stratosphere. But he achieved that rating over 10f, so it is void in this scenario. My point is, that SYT’s rating of 124 is him ‘running to form” in a Group 1 over 12f.
I’m struggling to understand how you could have misinterpreted this Ginger, you just seem to be exploiting my inefficiencies in communication. I have always maintained that Danedream’s win at 132 was bang on. So is it not a case of 2+2=4, that when I say Snow Fairy and SYT “ran to form” it is in the context of that overall rating?
How could I be insinuating So You Think ran to 131 if I firmly believe Danedream only ran to 132? It is just common sense Ginger.
In short; you were implying Snow Fairy and So You Think didn’t run to the level of form Timeform believed they did, to warrant giving Danedream a mark of 132. You basically said so yourself. My point has been to defend Timeform and argue that they did indeed run to form, and that rating is correct.
My main point is to argue there is nothing about Danedream’s form that makes it 2lbs inferior to Enable’s. You believe the 2nd, 3rd and 4th horse didn’t run to form, but I believe I’ve provided sufficient evidence that they did indeed.
Please do come back to it Ginger.
Merely pointing out that your 1, 2, 3, 4 (together with all the races SYT and SF won) – was not as good as that basic reading of form suggests… Because neither of those two horses ran to form in the Arc and therefore their place in this discussion is a false one. ie It’s impossible for me or anyone else to argue Enable’s 2 1/2 lengths+ beating of Cloth Of Stars, Ulysses and Order Of St George is worth more than a 5 lengths+ beating of Shareta, Snow Fairy and So You Think… UNLESS people realise the latter pair were BELOW FORM.
I can sum up my argument in one sentence:
There is no way Ulysses or Order of St George ran to a rating of 130 and 128 if So You Think and Snow Fairy only ran to 124 and 122 respectively.
So on that basis, even if you believe Snow Fairy and So You Think were below form, the level of form they ran to is still equal to Ulysses’ and OOSG’s best form.
Order of St George never would have fished 4 lengths ahead of So You think on that run. Never.
Sorry, can’t believe that.
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