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Goodwood 225
Continuing the theme……….
sweet William
win
well in here, if he can handle the ground he’ll win going away
TYSON FURY
EUCHEN GLEN
Both each way
are the top weights and both inform and confirmed mudlarks
One way punters can profit from the effect of non-runners is by predicting who the non-runners will be and therefore how non-runners affect the remaining horses chances – looking at the pace of the race. eg If there are two front/ prominent runners with one that likes the expected ground conditions and one that’ll hate it. Back the former and – when the latter comes out -you’re left with one that is likely to get an easy lead… Highly likely to be shortened in the reformed market more than the other runners
Value Is EverythingSumo Sam whom I advised in the big races was the latest example of what happens when another runner does not go through with an effort ( traverse effect) the two horses were drawn together on the traverse in stall 8 and 1 and on a turning track they are effectively drawn together. This also applies to top weight and bottom weight.
100% so far on races mentioned.
(Does not include sumo Sam)
Galway 3:40
The other feature which may come into play is free energy
This one not so obvious but the two main horses here are
Lord Vader
And
Simpson’s Paradox
They are drawn together in adjoining stalls and may give each other a good tow.
They both have good ratings off which the Jessica Harrington trained Simpson’s is ten pounds to the good.Simpson’s paradox
Win
And reverse forecast
With
Lord Vader4pm
Spantik
Is a qualifier.
Good second to Baez recently.
Clear of the field then and now left top weight.
Has a very strong challenger in HellenistaSimpson’s paradox and lord Vader were second and third, but upheld draw and performance.
Spantik
Led and eventually tailed off4:35
Shark two one
The next qualifier.
Last win on Soft ground off a mark of 93 defeating spycatcher by over four lengths.
Doctor Mozart expected to run well also.Thirsk 2-10
Somewhere secret
May run well due to the absence of a horse in stall 1.
Off the horses own back though has won on corresponding dates in recent years and a rare competitor at this level racing normally in handicaps.Placed at thirsk and next qualifier is idillico
Who runs as the de facto top weight here.
3:20 Musselburgh
Again expecting a good run from this horse under several form and physics factors.Two more qualifiers via the draw here
The curragh 5:40
Peerless
little happened for this horse since leaving Jamie Osborne but tumbled in the ratings from mid seventies down to career low. Wins have been on good but a couple of good runs with cut in ground recently. Change in jockey and recent use of Colin Keane very good indicator of imminent improvement.
DIFFERENT LOOK
( draw data) six years and the average winning stall is 8. There is also along with peerless a physics factor.
Another qualifier is Barnwell boy 5:20 York.
Interestingly he is unbeaten on good ground and comes here straight from goodwood where he was well behind Big Ev. Also well beaten by same runner at Royal Ascot. Looks to stand an each way chance.Well desertmore house won the Kerry national and was a selection purely on the physics.
Today it’s the turn of the Ayr bronze cup and without complete method here are the selections
B. associates
Bellagio man
Asadjumeirah
Claim the stars
rock melody
combination tricast
bellagio man each way
Asadjumeirah win
claim the stars each way
B. Associates each way
There are any number of non runners but markedly any number of horses are carrying a penalty for last time out wins and of these b. Associates a frequently good performer looks best placed to defy that penalty. In physics there is a knock on effect from horses carrying said penalties through the weights and the draw or both and there is also a knock effect of horses not running to form through either the weight or the draw.
I’ve combined these selections with some research done on the historical draw data.
Water of leith was the draw data horse but was withdrawn and subsequently there should be a knock on effect.
Draw data is my own system using recent and historical data from previous races.
I’ve worked out a way to make specific tweaks to flesh out anomalies to try and come up with an accurate assessment to try and select a likely draw based placed or winning horse and have had some success recently.
Claim the stars is in a stall adjacent to the one from which Tim Easterby won the race in the last few years. If neither of the two joint top weights fire, he is set to prosper. Tim Easterby also won the race last year from an opposite stall. So either extreme draw is a plus here coupled with being virtually out of the handicap this could just as easily benefit rock melody and music society who is the highest weighted highest drawn. But the profile of the bottom weight edges things and ticks many boxes given that he was competing at a much higher standard for mark Johnston as a juvenile and Tim Easterby has got him down from 84 to a class six handicapper in a very short space of time. So traverse law in physics works both ways so it would be suprise if the opposite were true. But I am hopeful of one of these five runners returning with gold silver or bronze.Apropos your post Sam you sparked my interest and I diverted my betting attentions from starting preparations for Newbury to Ayr, so must thank you for that. These big charge of the light brigade sprints can be brain teasers and end in tears, but I just lost myself in it using my older methods and some of my new and seemed to be floating in space
Interesting that Little Muddy came last with three empty stalls next to him. Although they mentioned on the radio that the draw played no part that was untrue on closer inspection. Good luck with your method it has virtue in it and one race result can define nothing.I had better not advise how I got on as I would be accused of after timing.
I like these what I call galloping tracks – Ayr York and Ascot and they are truer often than bendy courses.
I took the Ayr also on Saturday.
Wolverhampton had a bad pace race later on Friday.My love of sprints may have been reawakened. I think back to Ascot of 84 – which happened to be a very good year for the fasties and one horse springs immediately to mind.
Tesla’s principle of physics is also key to all of this as we will all find out in due course.
Finding the true top weight and true bottom weight is crucial to all of this.
Where to start and where to end. But I am getting there. I’m easily distracted. I’ve called the system Alexander and it yielded a 28/1 winner on Saturday night.I know where I’m going with this. It is going to take a while but I’ll get there. Thank you for your positivity. That is what I for one thrive and flourish on Gamble.
Next qualifier to highlight is
Cork
4:15
Snapraeterea
May place here gets the average winning stall over several years and is weighted under drawn alongside a non runner.
Also half a stone under last win.
Were Redcar to survive the inspection later this morning
Supreme king on debut for David Evans would be in a strong position because of both the weights and the draw here in the 5:05.
Weighted directly alongside the newcomer is Pleasure vampire 🧛♀️ who is also set to benefit directly at the weights and from the draw from an absent opponent.
Another factor kicks in here the assessment of the race based around previous results. There is only one year’s result to use as a sample but it was run in soft conditions. Stall one was the winner last year so as an aggregate a wider sample of the result is taken indicating (on the bare result) that stall six is in prime position to strike here. Further to the Draw data the debut second to BATAL DUBAI a class four winner yesterday and good finish’s behind a Charlie Appleby horse (a subsequent class two winner)suggests David Evans has placed this horse very well indeed in class five company and if fully wound up on debut would prove a very tough nut to crack on debut.
First time in a class five against a range of opponents headed for class six and unlikely to feature much above this level. All winnng opponents with few exceptions are rated in the high 80s to low 90s now.
A very confident choice weather permitting, with pleasure Vampire who looks a potential place horse even after just one outing, due to the possibility of the effect of the draw and the knock on effect of absentees.Well a new approach yielded a few winners yesterday ranging from Dragon’s Pass 🐉 at 20/1 to Moogie. Two aspects of physics in the Thurles race, traverse law and free energy threw up two horses and because it’s impossible to say which horse receives positive or negative energy both have to be considered and as it turned out the top weight never figured and the bottom showed “hidden reserves “ in the finish to get on top.
I know (believe) these hidden reserves to be the free energy that is factored into every race and generated by every horse. Like all belief systems known to man, if you believe in them strongly enough, you find to a way to make them work…… …..
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