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I think there’s a few reasons to suggest that Fortuni may be a bit better than a handicapper. The collateral form alone (via Cill Rialaig & Imposing) gives him a fair chance.
I was fascinated by his Epsom win. They didn’t seem to go that fast early, and without official sectional times, it’s going to have to involve some guesswork…..but he seemed to cover the home straight (well, from the path to the finishing line), & a similar time to the horse which won the previous race that day, run over the same C+D.
It’s probably irrelevant, as I read he’s unlikely to run, & if he does, there will have to be a fitness doubt because he’s supposedly been sick.
Does anyone know why Cill Rialaig isn’t running? She was my main bet, along with Imposing, which means I should have fancied Fortuni, but wasn’t sure why he’d had such a long lay off. Assumed that they were just trying to protect his handicap mark, but couldn’t back a horse that had been off the track for that length of time. I didn’t realise there were doubts about him running.
Praying that the heavy showers materialise on Tuesday … should be just about right then for Hillview Boy to get his toe in … already taken the 16’s (missed out on the 20’s thanks to Hugh Taylor) … not run over 14f before but looks as though he’ll have no trouble getting it judged by his efforts over 12f particularly with his 2nd in last year’s November H’Cap behind Charm School … excellent prep in the John Smith’s over an inadequate 10f … more rain before the race and I think he’ll be single figures by Weds.
Ebor Handicap
York 3.25 Tuesday
Demolition
1pt ew @ 20/1 PP (1/4 Odds, 4 places, GP, NRNB)
Faheys charge has been very consistent in handicaps lately. He’s contested 4 class 2 handicaps lately and placed in 3 of them at odds ranging from 9/1 to 16/1. In fact, he hasn’t been out of the first four on the turf since July 09 – thats 10 races! Unfortunately Paul Hanagan is suspended for the day of the Ebor so Tom Eaves takes the ride. I think this has somewhat allowed Demolition to hold his price. I think if Hanagan was riding he’d be shorter for sure. Its true that Eaves isn’t as good as Hanagan but he has enough experience to cope with the occasion.
Demolition is the first opportunity Fahey has really had to be competitive in a heritage handicap lately with all his horses poorly drawn in the Stewards Cup and the Great St. Wilfrid. 7 of the last 10 winners of the Ebor have been drawn in the top 7 stalls and Demolition comes out of 17. He’s run over 13f and wasn’t stopping so he’s sure to get the trip and has a decent amount of speed placing over 10f most notanly when 3rd behind Wigmore Hall at York last time when he had ante post fancy Imposing and Hugh Taylors pick Hillview Boy in behind, albeit not very far. The Ebor has thrown up some big price winners in the last 10 years with a 100/1 winner in 2006. Only once was a 20/1+ shot not placed in the last 10 years.
The selection goes on any ground but would appreciate good ground. I think considering his run over 13f at Ayr he will be a little bit better than his handicap mark over the extra furlong and has a fairly appealing chance at relatively interesting odds. Can’t be backing anything single figure in a 1m6f especially but any heritage handicap! Look at Deauville Flyer in the Northumberland Plate and Tajneed in the Great St. Wilfrid and Changingoftheguard in last years Ebor. Ther most likely winner is Overturn. He’s absolutely flying right now.
good luck, negatives for me are that he is a 6yo with an enormous amount of handicap runs on his cv, doubt he has anything hidden away for such a competitive race?
After Imposing, Deauville Flyer and the Baron missed out the race took on a different shape for me. Before the Chester Cup
Bernie The Bolt
was talked of as a top staying handicapper and after a slow start to the season he properly demolished an average field at Ascot. He’s young, potentially on a steep upward curve and well-handicapped, and 20/1. His ‘target’ may well be the Ces, but no reason he can’t take this down en route.
Rosika
was the other, at a price. She won a Goodwood handicap in really eye-catching fashion last season and was immediately hurled into pattern class, where she hasn’t disgraced herself at all. Back in a handicap off 97 is a more realistic test, or chance to place, perhaps.
Usually back a Cumani one, no such luck this year! gl
Centennial is interesting. Got a very good draw and 50/1 is a nice price for a small ew bet. Was a good horse a while ago, and I like 5 year olds in this race. Falls intot the category of ‘will back him because I’m not sure why he’s running’. Of the horses I’ve backed only Dirar has a good draw. Pity about the draw for Bernie because I really fancied him.
I think Demolition is pretty exposed but he’s very competitive and has the draw, price and weight in his favour.
12mm of rain due tomorrow at York and the going is currently Good. It’ll probably be on the easy side for the Ebor
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Centenial caused a bit of a shock when winning the Great Voltiguer but it’s no more than wishful thinking on the owners part that history might repeat itself…No harm in giving it a go but he’s been moved to Jonjo’s and I think you can expect to see him jumping 8 flights of hurdle pretty soon.
Fortuni made all last time but may lack the class and I doubt if he want to mix it with a real horse like Overturn early doors. Hard to judge if he’s up to this and is a pretty miserable price to go with it.
Looks pretty certain Overturn will force the pace again but something is sure to go with him and make this a realstamina test It may be best to look for something that stays every yard of tis trip and further.
One that fits the bill is obviously Darley Sun but the weight on this course puts me right off..
One seemingly unfancied is Desert Sea who was having only his second run of the season when finishing only 3 lengths behind Overturn at Newcastle. He’s now 4lbs better of and stayed on really well in the Chester cup when beaten only 4 lengths.
He would not be at his best at Newcastle as he already had the run at Chester and needs to be fresh to be seen at his best.
Since then he’s had 53 days off with only one thing in mind.
All things considered he’s a huge price and worth a IMO few bob.
Desert Sea ew for me.
Saver: Overturn
While I’ll stick with OVERTURN (He may be a very special horse)the fly in my ointment is Howard Johnson’s French import, PROSPECT WELLS having his first run outside Group or Listed grade for two years, and a good winner on his debut for new connections on his seasonal debut.
I’ve "notebooked" him as a likely major player for the coming NH season but he’s well drawn and I could see him figure in the finish tomorrow despite his welterweight.
I’m suprised nobody else has mentione him, looks worth an EW cover at leastLooks like Prospect Wells still has his engine, which nearly tempted me in, but it won’t be soft and he’s not battle hardened enough for mine.
Bernie’s draw is fine moe, presume your going off ‘draw stats’ but they’re pretty flimsy and good horses have won low just as they have high tbf.
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Fran Berry gave
Elyaadi
one of the worst rides I have seen for quite some time at Ascot, cantering almost 20 lengths off the pace until 2.5 furlongs out before deciding to at least try to be competitive.
The horse is much better than that result, will be suited by the likely strong pace and won well under this jockey on his penultimate start. He’ll go on any ground, too.
True Bucks, the ground was much better than I anticipated today and its only going to get better before the Ebor.
I’m sticking with Demolition. Good luck all
Bernie The Bolt and Rosika my two against the field. Murtagh’s booking on a Tony Martin horse catches the eye too.
Agree with nulty on this one..
Demolition looks a very genuine horse to me who has a lot in favour. 2 good recent placed efforts in big handicaps, no problem with course, trip, draw or ground.
Also agree that if Hanagan was aboard would be a lot shorter. Will still be taking the best morning price anyway, because Fahey horses are regularly punted off the boards at Northern tracks and although this is a hugely competitive, wide open race I can still see it shortening from early price to race off time…
As an Aussie, of course I hope to see a Melbourne Cup entry win.
If Darley Sun can run a big race with his weight, I think he could be competitive in Melbourne.
Of course, I’d like to see a big run from Martyr.
And Dangerous Midge is in form.
I think this year however there will be more focus on the Lonsdale for us, with Illustrious Blue, King of Wands and to a lesser extent Akmal all in the running to come to Melbourne.
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