- This topic has 42 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 2 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Stencive ruled out, good job I hadn’t played!
Opinion will be my main bet if he goes, I concur with your sentiments Big.
Prescott doesn’t really win these big races anymore
Pallasator has come in from 12/1 to as low as 8/1 in the last 24 hrs Rich. Will it be boom, boom?
http://i73.photobucket.com/albums/i237/scorrie57/Basil_Brush_zps0b1f7efd.jpg
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I had my fingers burnt when I was adamant Repeater would place in the Goodwood Gold Cup where he came a miserable last, obviously he has to be respected but think his horses are more geared up to win smallish races quickly turned out than the big handicaps or group races. Will wait and see re. Pallasator, but I won’t be partaking.
JJM; had a small ew on Tropical Beat after you mentioned it, but, looking again think I’ll have another bet on it. Usually wins second time out and has had a very quiet season thus far [aimed at this race??] after running well at York before [as you said]. Hold up horse as well. Just needs a good draw. Being stupid as usual I was looking for a horse that would get in just over 8st but forgot the horses at the bottom of the handicap these days seem to be just under 9st. Suraj might just scrape in but don’t think Noble Silk will. Also liked the look of Arch Villain but he certainly won’t get in. [also forgot No Heretic; needs a few to come out though].
I was glad to read yesterday that Opinion had done his last piece of work before the Ebor and was impressive.
All appears to be going well at this stage I’m glad to see his price is shortening, I have noticed in the past that when the money is down for a Stoute horse, it is a good indication. I don’t know whether it’s been stable or owner money, but if expectation is high they certainly get bet.
He is best priced 7-1 now, and as I said in my previous post, when he was best priced 8-1, "I can see him being the kind of gamble that ends up 7-2". I’m obviously being a bit smug at grabbing the 10s but I still think he is value at 7-1.
All he has to do now is win, it’s that easy……he says typing with burnt fingers from previous would be easy winners.
Best of luck whatever nag you settle on.
I had my fingers burnt when I was adamant Repeater would place in the Goodwood Gold Cup where he came a miserable last, obviously he has to be respected but think his horses are more geared up to win smallish races quickly turned out than the big handicaps or group races. Will wait and see re. Pallasator, but I won’t be partaking.
I had been hoping for some "Danny McGrain" at York but it has not materialised. Connections say that Pallasator needs cut to be at his best, so it doesn’t look like he’ll get it.
Last year it seemed to me that Opinion ran
his
best races with cut in the ground but he went and won on faster ground later in the season and has done so again, so it might be that he’s versatile and his poorer runs last year were more a symptom of a general malaise in the Stoute stable’s fortunes. He has a great looking profile but he’s skinny at around 6/1 now. He could well swoop late if staying the trip well.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I had my fingers burnt when I was adamant Repeater would place in the Goodwood Gold Cup where he came a miserable last, obviously he has to be respected but think his horses are more geared up to win smallish races quickly turned out than the big handicaps or group races. Will wait and see re. Pallasator, but I won’t be partaking.
I had been hoping for some "Danny McGrain" at York but it has not materialised. Connections say that Pallasator needs cut to be at his best, so it doesn’t look like he’ll get it.
Last year it seemed to me that Opinion ran
his
best races with cut in the ground but he went and won on faster ground later in the season and has done so again, so it might be that he’s versatile and his poorer runs last year were more a symptom of a general malaise in the Stoute stable’s fortunes. He has a great looking profile but he’s skinny at around 6/1 now. He could well swoop late if staying the trip well.
Danny McGrain???
Are you a Celt Steve?I had my fingers burnt when I was adamant Repeater would place in the Goodwood Gold Cup where he came a miserable last, obviously he has to be respected but think his horses are more geared up to win smallish races quickly turned out than the big handicaps or group races. Will wait and see re. Pallasator, but I won’t be partaking.
I had been hoping for some "Danny McGrain" at York but it has not materialised. Connections say that Pallasator needs cut to be at his best, so it doesn’t look like he’ll get it.
Last year it seemed to me that Opinion ran
his
best races with cut in the ground but he went and won on faster ground later in the season and has done so again, so it might be that he’s versatile and his poorer runs last year were more a symptom of a general malaise in the Stoute stable’s fortunes. He has a great looking profile but he’s skinny at around 6/1 now. He could well swoop late if staying the trip well.
Danny McGrain???
Are you a Celt Steve?I’ve followed Celtic since the early 70’s but haven’t been to a game for quite some time. Football takes a back seat to some extent when you have a family. My wife is Rangers through and through but neither of us have any religious belief so that makes it a lot easier to co-exist. Scottish football is as poor as I can remember it at the moment but a good crowd at Celtic Park singing their hearts out still takes a wee lump to the throat. "For we only know that there’s gonna be a show…."
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I topped up my bet on Tropical Beat today in case Party Line ran well this afternoon, and she’s only just got beat in the two miler, so I’m quite pleased with that. Other than that I really fancy No Heretic, but no jockey booking as yet and needs a few to come out.
I had been hoping for some "Danny McGrain" at York but it has not materialised. Connections say that Pallasator needs cut to be at his best, so it doesn’t look like he’ll get it.
Last year it seemed to me that Opinion ran
his
best races with cut in the ground but he went and won on faster ground later in the season and has done so again, so it might be that he’s versatile and his poorer runs last year were more a symptom of a general malaise in the Stoute stable’s fortunes. He has a great looking profile but he’s skinny at around 6/1 now. He could well swoop late if staying the trip well.
Danny McGrain???
Are you a Celt Steve?I’ve followed Celtic since the early 70’s but haven’t been to a game for quite some time. Football takes a back seat to some extent when you have a family. My wife is Rangers through and through but neither of us have any religious belief so that makes it a lot easier to co-exist. Scottish football is as poor as I can remember it at the moment but a good crowd at Celtic Park singing their hearts out still takes a wee lump to the throat. "For we only know that there’s gonna be a show…."
Good man Steve
I’m a season ticket holder and supported the Celtic since the late 60’s. Gutted after last night though 
Hail! Hail!Agreed Martin, the result of the game was so disappointing. I don’t think Celtic played bad at all, in fact I thought they were the better team. The big difference was Shakhter put the ball in the net twice, and Celtic squandered many decent chances. That being said, I really don’t think this game is lost yet, I think Shakhter will find it very intimidating at Parkhead and I can’t see Celtic not scoring a couple of times against them, I think keeping a clean sheet is going to be the main concern. I’m an Accies man so obviously I’m happy at the moment, if they could finish the league today….we’d be champions and promoted…..hooorraaaaah. Only another 34 games to go
Anyway, back to the Ebor. I put up Opinion when he was still 8-1 (having taken 10s) and suggested he was the type that could end up 7-2 on the day. I banged on about him again when he was 7s and suggested that was still value. He’s now best priced 5-1. There has been serious money on this horse, which I like to see from Stoute’s yard as I take it as a very serious pointer.
Whether the 5-1 is still value in a competitive 22 runner handicap is open to debate, but I’m inclined to say yes. Maybe I should put on a double…..Opinion to win the Ebor and Celtic to qualify for the group stages
, they are best priced 6/5 with Hills. I don’t think that’s such a bad bet.No Heretic gets in and has a brilliant draw. Topped up my bet yesterday so chuffed about that. Tropical Beat not such a good draw, though.
2 long shots for me, Tropical Beat and Steps to Freedom are both outsiders who should run well. I know Tropical Beat will get well backed and PWise could snaffle him too
No Heretic gets in and has a brilliant draw. Topped up my bet yesterday so chuffed about that. Tropical Beat not such a good draw, though.
Hi Moehat, I wouldn’t be too worried about the draw for Tropical beat, I think that too much is made of it’s importance in the Ebor.
Admittedly if you simply look at the winners over the past 10 years, with six winners drawn in the middle it suggests that’s the place to be, but the overall stats show it’s not that simple.Over the last 10 years, of horses drawn in single figures, 19 were placed, with one winner and six finishing second.
Of those drawn between 10 and 17, eleven were placed with six winning and one being second.
Of those drawn 18 and above, seven finished in the first four, with two winners and two second.It could be argued that those drawn in single figures are the place to be. Although those drawn 10-17 had six winners and one second, those in single figures had one winner and six seconds, the difference between the winner and second in those cases could simply be down to the better horse getting its head in front. Those drawn in single figure also have the highest percentage of horses placed. Exactly half of all the horses placed (18) were drawn in single figures as opposed to those drawn 10-17 who have less than a third placed (11).
Those drawn 18+ account for less than 20% of horses in the first four.With the largest percentage of placed horses coming from single figure stalls, I wouldn’t worry about Tropical Beat being drawn 6. If he’s good enough, he can win from there.
I’ve already nailed my colours to the mast with Opinion, who is drawn 5. I’m not concerned about him coming from there, I believe he is good enough to win whichever stall he comes from.
Best of luck for both your fancies.
PS Before some eagle eyed mathematician points out that my figures account for 36 horses, when there should be 40 placed over the past ten years, I have not take into account the 2008 running, which took place at Newbury and is therefore irrelevant in relation to the draw.
I like Blue Surf each way at 50s with Sportingbet. Handicap mark has crept down this season, and he was not given a tough time by any means on his last run. Stamina to prove, but he looks to me like he might benefit from the trip.
I think Sun Central could be at least a Group 2 horse, and is owned by US breeders who have had a number of Derby winners over there, including no less than Barbaro. However, he has to give 10lbs to Genzy, who won a Group2 in France as a youngster, and was just pipped in another Group 2, his next race. SC may be a Group 1 horse and win it, but I like the chances of Genzy.
Charlton says he quietly fancies his Bishop Roko, who doubtless has more to offer than when just beating the unlucky in running Genzy, who is a year older, at 5, and evidently emerging from a fallow period.
Well, for those that don’t know it is bucketing down in North Yorkshire so it’s gonna take some getting and not many enjoy soft ground!!
I have taken a chance with 2 outsiders, Guarantee will enjoy it more than most and at
25s looks nice EW, the other will come there cruising 2 out but will probably fade close home but at 50s was worth a small EW – Hanovarian Baron.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.