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St Leger:
I’d have strongly fancied Stradivarius on a sound surface, proven top stayer after beating Big Orange in Goodwood Cup. But form, action and breeding suggests to me is one to take on if soft. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s even pulled out. That’s in complete contrast to Defoe. Form of the Geoff Freer isn’t magnificent, but is progressing all the time; very rounded action, proven on soft and further he goes the better.
Soft ground wouldn’t worry me about Capri either, Galileo horses out of 12f winners usually stay really well and has good form on a softish surface. It wasn’t a great Irish Derby, probably only won due to positional advantage, but it’s still the best form on offer here and could improve further for this trip.
Crystal Ocean looked a typical Stoute back end improving three year old when winning at Goodwood. Probably be the best of these next year. Although like Stradivarius is by Sea The Stars who’s more a firm surface sire, unlike the Gosden horse, Stoute’s representitive has form with at least some give… However, soft brings stamina more in to the equation and where as I’d be confident of Crystal Ocean staying in a truly run St Leger on a sound surface, I have far more doubts on soft. Trainer has also said this will be Crystal Ocean’s only try at this far.
Coronet winning Ribblesdale is nowhere near her Yorkshire Oaks runner-up form. But can you believe it? Ridden for second, coming from way back where as Queens Trust took Enable on – Coronet flattered? By Dubawi and isn’t really bred for this, but very relaxed and settles well, way she races it’ll probably suit. Suspect Coronet will again be dropped out the back in the hope others go too quick too soon.
Officially “Soft” now, forecast is for a fair bit of heavy rain tonight, showers Wednesday, but then very lttle before race time. Going will imo be crucial. On good ground I’d have had Crystal Ocean and Stradivarius first and second favourite over Capri and Defoe in my workings out. On the more than likely Soft – the opposite. Wish I’d done this analysis a couple of days ago, before market moves, should’ve been on Defoe but probably too late.
Form of the big four make this a well up to standard renewal. However, am quite interested in the Coolmore second string Venice Beach. Chester Vase winner in April and therefore thought of as a staying type; half brother to Arc winner Danedream and by Galileo. Finished just a length behind Shakeel and Permian in 12f Grand Prix De Paris despite being pushed along some way out and seemingly more likely to drop away. Also Ballydoyle’s representitive in what’s usually their favoured St Leger trial – Voltigeur. 6 lengths behind Cracksman, but that one’s a much better than average winner of that race. Venice Beach beat the rest by the same margin and further. Soft/Heavy would be a little disconcerting, but has form on good-soft and an added stamina test soft brings could even suit. To me, has always looked one that will improve significantly once stamina is tested.
23 points each way @ 12/1 (B365 ¼ odds) Venice Beach
46 points @ 4/1 CapriValue Is Everything4:50
84 popints @ 11/8 (C) Mirage Dancer (min 5/4)
half saver:
17 points @ 5/2 (betfair) Mount Logan (min 9/4)Value Is Everything3:20
88 points @ 6/4 Final Venture (min 5/4)saver:
15 points @ 6.4/1 Desert Law (min 6/1)Thesme is one of the fastest in the country, more a 4f horse than 5. Ran well last time out at his beloved York and a good second in this last year. But has appeared a weak finisher this season and if going reports are true and with a strong headwind this 5f may be too much of a “test of stamina” as long as the other jockeys do not give Frankie an easy time in front.
Final Venture is usually ridden up there or tracks pace so shouldn’t be far away today. He’s been more consistent than Thesme this season too, so although there’s nothing between tham on “form”, arguably Final Venture is more likely to run to that form. Good second to old rival Take Cover in Beverley Bullet last time. None of these are sure to act if it comes up really soft, but Final Venture has some form on it some time ago and the below par effort at Goodwood probably more to do with draw/trying to keep up with Battaash.
Stable companion Desert Law isn’t out of this. Winning a handicap on penultimate start, with 1 1/2 lengths back to Thesme, who’s 12 lbs better off. So in theory Thesme has 6 lbs in hand. Desert Law last time 6th in Beverley Bullet, only 3/4 length behind Final Venture who was giving the same 3 lbs as today. So in theory his stable companion has 3 lbs in hand. But Desert Law is 6/1. Trouble is am not as sure of his effectiveness on the ground. Probably acts on good-soft, but disappointed on soft each time he’s raced on it. That said, winds overnight and this morning are drying the ground.
Encore D’Or has some good form that’ll give him a chance, but all of it is on the all weather.
Go On Go On Go On Go On has some good form, but is running as if amiss. Market move either way will probably tell how he’ll run.
Razmatazz is unraced on the ground, hasn’t had much racing but nothing he’s done suggests he’s up to this.
Value Is Everything4:50
84 popints @ 11/8 (C) Mirage Dancer (min 5/4)
half saver:
17 points @ 5/2 (betfair) Mount Logan (min 9/4)Am a fan of Mirage Dancer, one of Stoute’s top four year olds in the making? Well beaten in the Voltigeur, but didn’t fully settle – strike that out. Comes back down in trip here. Has the best form on offer in this race and by far the most likely to improve. Strong head wind and places more emphasis on jockeyship, but Ryan Moore makes less mistakes than most on that account. Chester run behind Cliffs Of Moher suggests will act on the ground. I expect him to win given luck in running.
Main worry about Mirage Dancer is it’s difficult to find who’s going to lead, so a probability of a slow pace/positional advantage to someone. Mount Logan is not a horse I like, either desperately one paced or is he temperamental? Often placed, rarely wins – last victorious in this race last year. Sometimes held up, sometimes mid-div, they’ve tried everything this season. Prominent last time and so most likely to lead. Should act on the ground unless they get a really heavy storm. Half saver.
Ed Dunlop is in excellent form, but Red Verdon would need a real test of stamina at this trip to be effective… Invariably a hold up horse and no confirmed front runner in the field. They might be advised to change tactics, trouble is if they do – and make it enough of a test of stamina – they’ll be going fast in to a strong headwind. Probably set it up for something else.
Ground and trip ideal but Sumbal is unraced since October. Runner-up to Garlingari twice in French Group races giving the winner weight each time when trained there. Not as good in two races last back end for David Simcock. Every chance if capable of that.
Value Is EverythingConsidering the headwind, so far times haven’t been that bad.
Somewhere between Good-soft and soft I’d say.Value Is EverythingIf I were betting right now would switch main bet Final Venture with saver Desert Law.
Value Is EverythingIf I were betting right now would switch main bet Final Venture with saver Desert Law.
If I were betting right now wouldn’t back either of them.
Value Is EverythingNot too good today:
Only the half saver Mount Logan winning and very poor runs from main bets.Stakes 204
Return 59.5
Deficit -144.5Value Is Everything2:25 Doncaster
77 points @ 100/30 Nyaleti (min 11/4)
saver:
22 points @ 7/2 Laurens (min 100/30)In my opinion it’s probable one of the two will win and you can get odds-against as a combined price. If you have accounts with bookmakers you’ll probably be able to get 4/1 Laurens in the morning. If so I suggest reversing the main and saver bets.
Value Is Everything3:00
65 points @ 9/2 Melodic Motion (min 7/2)
25 points @ 12/1 Detailed (min 11/1)
saver:
18 points @ 5/1 Natural Scenery (min 9/2)Value Is EverythingDonny not the most natural meeting for me GT, but having a go and will be with…..
Adams Ale
Hoofalong
DubkaGood luck with yours, and I’ll probably chip in with mine over the next couple of days.
Donny not the most natural meeting for me GT, but having a go and will be with…..
Adams Ale
Hoofalong
DubkaGood luck with yours, and I’ll probably chip in with mine over the next couple of days.
Please do, VTC, everyone’s opinions welcome.
Be cheering on Hoofalong for you.
Value Is EverythingSt Leger:
23 points each way @ 12/1 (B365 ¼ odds) Venice Beach
46 points @ 4/1 Capri38 points @ 8/1 Stradivarius (min 13/2)
25 points @ 25/1 Count Octave (min 18/1)Ground drying out.
I’ll probably lay the place part back of Venice Beach to keep stakes/viabilities at a fair level.Value Is EverythingMy only bet today is Natural Scenery in the 3.00 Don.Good luck with all your bets.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
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