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2:25 Doncaster
77 points @ 100/30 Nyaleti (min 11/4)
saver:
22 points @ 7/2 Laurens (min 100/30)In my opinion it’s probable one of the two will win and you can get odds-against as a combined price. If you have accounts with bookmakers you’ll probably be able to get 4/1 Laurens in the morning. If so I suggest reversing the main and saver bets.
Hopefully one or two did this.
Value Is Everything3:00
65 points @ 9/2 Melodic Motion (min 7/2)
25 points @ 12/1 Detailed (min 11/1)
saver:
18 points @ 5/1 Natural Scenery (min 9/2)Main two bets did best of the hold up horses in a slowly run race.
Value Is Everything3:35
60 points @ 6/1 (Sky) Thomas Hobson (min 5/1)
65 points @ 9/2 (PP) Desert Skyline (min 4/1)Value Is Everything3:35
60 points @ 6/1 (Sky) Thomas Hobson (min 5/1)
65 points @ 9/2 (PP) Desert Skyline (min 4/1)Yes GT! I have also backed these two animals at these prices. Would’ve be surprised if they go off fav and 2nd fav.
3:35
60 points @ 6/1 (Sky) Thomas Hobson (min 5/1)
65 points @ 9/2 (PP) Desert Skyline (min 4/1)Yes GT! I have also backed these two animals at these prices. Would’ve be surprised if they go off fav and 2nd fav.
Yes LS! If I were a bookie betting on the race I would price up Desert Skyline as 3/1 fav and Thomas Hobson 7/2 with Montaly 11/2.
Value Is Everything1:50
57 points @ 9/2 Eternally (min 4/1)
30 points @ 9/1 Pirouette (min 8/1)
saver:
22 points @ 4/1 Talaayeb (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingBit of a loud one, but in the 1350, Whatsthemessage at 50’s win, and 40’s ew 4 places, while High Jink, around 16’s, and Ace Ventura, around 7’s, will be my Donny selections.
GL
Bit of a loud one, but in the 1350, Whatsthemessage at 50’s win, and 40’s ew 4 places, while High Jink, around 16’s, and Ace Ventura, around 7’s, will be my Donny selections.
GL
I agree with High Jinx VTC.
Desert Skyline has the generous 3 year old allowance, steps up in trip and the further he’s been the better he looks. So scope for further improvement.
I was against Thomas Hobson at York, for what he’d done was very short there. In the event had no chance after racing out wide with no cover. Ascot Stakes win lives long in memory and Moore is back in the saddle. If able to relax him out the back can do a lot better than when beaten by Montaly. Latter came from well off the pace that day and imo flattered in beating a below par Dartmouth and the horse who doesn’t want to lead – St Michel. Still cursing that one!
Then come the golden oldies… Going back 12 months Sheikhzayadroad‘s form would make him favourite here, but doesn’t seem the same horse these days. Clever Cookie may have his ground, but doesn’t seem quite the force of old either. Ditto Pallasator, Rosie Jessop takes over and am also concerned the horse will take charge going to post. Doesn’t look a girl’s ride to me, but who am I to tell Sir Mark?
She Is No Lady is no forlorn hope; acts on the ground and best run was over the greatest test of stamina she’s faced – in the Gold Cup. This 2m2f with give in the ground should be an equal test provided they go a pace…
And that’s the potential problem for my two bets. Both Dsert Skyline and Thomas Hobson are normally held up and unless Fun Mac or Sheikhzayadroad take him on – High Jinx could be allowed a soft lead. Although he won last time out, Fun Mac’s form seems exposed as not quite good enough. High Jinx probably isn’t up to this any more either; but only “probably”. Had form to win this a year or two ago. If able to take a small step in that direction and if allowed his own way in front – who knows? I’ve had a few quid on him just in case it favours pace horses.3:35
60 points @ 6/1 (Sky) Thomas Hobson (min 5/1)
65 points @ 9/2 (PP) Desert Skyline (min 4/1)15 points @ 16/1 High Jinx (min 14/1)
Value Is EverythingFirst race at Donny run 2.58 seconds slower than standard. That’s only 0.37 per furlong. Quickened up again since yesterday. Chances are it’ll be genuinely good ground tomorrow and Frankie will be regretting the decision not to play his Stradivarius.
Second race faster, 1.72 scecs slow. 0.25 per furlong. At this rate it’ll be good by the end of the day.
Value Is EverythingFirst race at Donny run 2.58 seconds slower than standard. That’s only 0.37 per furlong. Quickened up again since yesterday. Chances are it’ll be genuinely good ground tomorrow and Frankie will be regretting the decision not to play his Stradivarius.
Second race faster, 1.72 scecs slow. 0.25 per furlong. At this rate it’ll be good by the end of the day.
Third race faster still, albeit should be with a Group 2 (with Group 1 class horses first and second). 0.83 secs slow which is just 0.17 per furlong.
Value Is EverythingWednesday Stakes 204
Return 59.5
Deficit -144.5Thursday Stakes 207
Return 99
Thursday Deficit -108Donny Deficit -252.5
A race that went right for me at Donny.
The old Chute boy did me proud today, Elsey does the job with Desert Skyline, my first main bet to win all week. Ironic had he not won the second Thomas Hobson was also a main bet. Eternally another second.Friday Stakes 249
Return 357.5
Friday Profit +108.5Donny Defecit -144
Haven’t finished in defecit in any of these Festival threads yet. Fingers crossed can get in front tomorrow.Value Is EverythingMy 100% book for a good ground St Leger:
4/1 Crystal Ocean, 9/2 Capri, 11/2 STRADIVARIUS, 13/2 Defoe, 10/1 Venice Beach, 14/1 COUNT OCTAVE, 14/1 Coronet, 20/1 Rekindling, 25/1 Raheen House, 66/1 Douglas Macarther, 400/1 The Anvil.Value Is EverythingApologies for my St Leger bets, look a bit of a mess. Looked as if it’ll be soft going at the start of the week and now good. If you want to take my advice and haven’t yet played: Suggest waiting until the morning and taking a look at if there was any overnight rain.
If it doesn’t rain then back both Stradivarius and Count Octave at Early Morning prices.
I’ll probably come back and do some fiddling Lay/saver bets too.Value Is Everything2:25
45 points @ 10/1 Sir Dancealot (min 15/2)
23 points @ 3/1 Home Of The Brave (min 3/1)
25 points @ 11/4 Aclaim (min 11/4)Value Is EverythingGood Luck today Ginge
Am off to Donny shortly as it is only forty minutes from me!!
Main bets Home Of The Brave King Bolete and Mythical Magic.
St Leger:
23 points each way @ 12/1 (B365 ¼ odds) Venice Beach
46 points @ 4/1 Capri38 points @ 8/1 Stradivarius (min 13/2)
25 points @ 25/1 Count Octave (min 18/1)Ground drying out.
I’ll probably lay the place part back of Venice Beach to keep stakes/viabilities at a fair level.LAY 20 points @ 7/2 Capri (min 7/2)
Value Is EverythingI agree with Home Of The Brave, Raymo.
GL2:25
45 points @ 10/1 Sir Dancealot (min 15/2)
23 points @ 3/1 Home Of The Brave (min 3/1)
25 points @ 11/4 Aclaim (min 11/4)Making Home Of The Brave a main bet:
Another:
45 points @ 7/2 Home Of The Brave (min 3/1)Value Is Everything
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