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A dinner party sounds like something from another era. It is wonderful news to know they still alive and kicking.
When giving up “work” and turning “professional”, the tax people advised me to keep a record of my bets. Just in case they happen to check up on me. Apparently there’s a lot of crooks who – when asked where their money comes from? Reply – “won it on the horses”, so can understand the authorities needing to be careful. I tried a thorough list for a while, but thankfully it’s not necessary to keep a note of every wager. Most bookmakers limit me to winning a certain amount per horse, so stakes often build (one bookie might limit me to winning £150 on a race, another £200 etc, then there’s top-ups (eg Village Vic on Saturday, backed at 20/1 and couldn’t resist some 39/1 shortly before the off). Ouch! Sometimes ending up having four or more seperate bets on one horse in one race… and sometimes five or more horses backed in that one race… that’s a lot of bets to note! Nowadays impossible for me to keep track. If writing every bet down I’d need a page per race; risking missing the price on the next horse and increasing time involved. That said, these days the vast majority are with betfair anyway. Hopefully there’s enough of a paper trail to satisfy the authorities if coming knocking on the door.. Tax lady did say as long as I don’t claim for benefits doubt they’d bother troubling me.
Used to keep a more accurate account when I wasn’t a “pro” and found it helped. Easy to think you’ve won more or lost less than you actually have. However, when betting is the only sourse of income, fairly easy to see if successful from my bank balance, so knowing the absolute profit is imo not necessary. Rough idea certainly helps, one reason I like doing a DLAP thread.
You asked whether profit/loss analysis alters punters betting psycologically, Judge?
imo It does not make me bet more or less or chase losses, that’s all to do with discipline and you’ve either got discipline or you haven’t. I know am up overall, so that isn’t the thing. Point is, although am confident in my own methods, a long losing run could lead to a lack of confidence on any given race or day or week. Am I doing it right? Is that horse really value? etc. Confidence is essential because it keeps me looking at races in exactly the same (profitable) way. Without it, am sure I can suconsciously look at the race differently and therefore come to the wrong conclusions as to where the value is, elongating losing runs. So I can see why you’d say “ignorance can be bliss”, however, I find saver bets help me enormously, keeping losing runs to a minimum and confidence to a reasonable level.Value Is EverythingTrue mate but when it works the other way it’s not so easy, when you’re six or seven hundred quid down it becomes demoralising writing up your results. I did think of another solution, if you’re down on a certain period, file that away and start again (a bit similar to what Nathan was suggesting) with a clean page, the previous losses can still be figured in the overall period but from a psychological perspective it’s better for your mind to start again if you’re heavily down.
By all means keep Flat betting seperate from Jumps.
Value Is EverythingYeah that’s interesting what you say about the saver bets Ginger mate, and the value of that pyschologically I’ll bear that in mind in future, I used to think it was a sign of weakness to back two or more but to be honest I bet a lot on golf and often only bet one player per event, which as you can imagine can lead to long losing runs. It wouldn’t be uncommon to go several years
without backing a winner, especially if you’re punting at large pricesThe thing I keep coming back to is that it’s very tough to win at gambling. Come on a racing forum and you get a false perspective of how tough it is as the majority claim to be winners. It’s a bit like “shy trump supporters” in that for some reason those who are losing feel very uncomfortable in admitting as much. And my guess is a lot of those who claim to be ahead are telling porkies.
Depends how a punter bets, Judge. I don’t gamble – I invest, it’s not that “tough” when you know how and are willing to put the hard work in. Although there are many who know the form book backwards, but will not “win at gambling” because they can not translate “form” in to “chance” which is essential to make an overall profit.
But you’re right not believing all those who say they make a profit. Often punters totally dismiss times when showing a deficit, because the mind is saying he/she was doing something wrong. Where as he/she believes profitable times were where he/she was doing things correctly. Therefore, he/she subconsciously and/or conveniently thinks forgetting the losing run is the right thing to do. Where as (for most) those profitable times were just the winning runs any punter can expect. In truth (for most) they don’t make up for the losing runs any punter can expect.
Only those who’ve shown a good understanding of horse racing and betting deserve to be believed. I’d estimate there are probably fewer than 15 regular TRF posters who genuinely make a profit… Take a look on DLAP and the competitions threads and see how many regularly (and the word “regularly” matters) show a profit. Be free not to believe me either, because it’s up to you and you alone who to believe.
Value Is EverythingYeah that’s interesting what you say about the saver bets Ginger mate, and the value of that pyschologically I’ll bear that in mind in future, I used to think it was a sign of weakness to back two or more but to be honest I bet a lot on golf and often only bet one player per event, which as you can imagine can lead to long losing runs. It wouldn’t be uncommon to go several years
without backing a winner, especially if you’re punting at large pricesBe aware though Judge, that saver bets will only work for punters who are essentially profit makers. ie If a punter is basically backing the wrong horses, the more horses backed the more he/she loses.
Value Is EverythingYou look at trainer stats, if you back godolphin or hannon’s blind or pretty much any other racehorse trainer you’ll be massively down to a level stake over a long period. And these are the best trainers in the country. The same with newspaper tipsters.
It’s the “value” thing again, Judge.
Godolphin and Hannon are thought to be the best trainers/owners in the country (which is deateable in itself) but because punters and bookmakers know it they’re often over-bet. At prices too short to make them a value/good bet. The only way to make blindly following trainers profitale is to find a trainer under-estimated by punters and bookmakers, but they won’t be profitale once they get well known.
If a good newspaper tipster does well one or two years, he’s likely to get a a bigger following the next, which means the more money is wagered on them, which means the shorter the average SP will be (and newspaper tips are judged on SP) which means his tips are no longer profitable.
Value Is EverythingYou look at trainer stats, if you back godolphin or hannon’s blind or pretty much any other racehorse trainer you’ll be massively down to a level stake over a long period. And these are the best trainers in the country. The same with newspaper tipsters.
It’s the “value” thing again, Judge.
Godolphin and Hannon are thought to be the best trainers/owners in the country (which is deateable in itself) but because punters and bookmakers know it they’re often over-bet. At prices too short to make them a value/good bet. The only way to make blindly following trainers profitale is to find a trainer under-estimated by punters and bookmakers, but they won’t be profitale once they get well known.
If a good newspaper tipster does well one or two years, he’s likely to get a a bigger following the next, which means the more money is wagered on them, which means the shorter the average SP will be (and newspaper tips are judged on SP) which means his tips are no longer profitable.
Yeah I mentioned this earlier in the thread Ginger. That I noticed on my results that I was doing badly on Hugo Palmer horses. Admittedly this was based on a small sample of bets, but it seemed to be trending towards the conclusion that his horses were overbet because of his large media profile, his accessibility as a trainer and so on.
One of the things I find interesting is the way the media tends to shape the price of a horse, particularly say in a maiden race. Admittedly these races could be viewed as guesswork by many, but one of the things I’ve noticed that if a horse is even briefly mentioned in a positive way by a commentator or someone else then this almost creates a snowball effect where everyone starts to talk about it and it gets backed to almost the extent of all others in the race on it’s very next outing. It seems to me that the media have a huge effect on the price of a horse as they create this lemmings effect. It could be something to take advantage of in future.
As for the thing about not doing saver bets if you are backing the wrong horses in the first place, I completely agree with you. As a punter I think you’re constantly having this desire to get ahead of the game, so you can put yourself on pyschological reset where you can bet with confidence in the future. Backing several horses seems to me to be one way of achieving this, but it could also have the effect of making things much worse, and as you allude to the way to view it is not gambling but more “investment”, where the result of one single race isn’t that important. A difficult thing to do!
I think if you don’t track your overall profit/loss over a period of time say quarterly, you know deep down you’re not a profitable investor (Nathan it’s definitely investing
haha) cannot be that difficult with bet history online?
If on course I would keep each bet slip or take a pic.Trainer level stake profit is at SP when most winners have shortened up.
Ginger is brilliant at what he does but it is his job
I wouldn’t go to work this week for say 24 hours and come home with minus 200 ptsGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I think if you don’t track your overall profit/loss over a period of time say quarterly, you know deep down you’re not a profitable investor (Nathan it’s definitely investing
haha) cannot be that difficult with bet history online?
If on course I would keep each bet slip or take a pic.Trainer level stake profit is at SP when most winners have shortened up.
I place a lot of my bets down the bookies Theo.
The thing I keep coming back to is that it’s very tough to win at gambling. Come on a racing forum and you get a false perspective of how tough it is as the majority claim to be winners. It’s a bit like “shy trump supporters” in that for some reason those who are losing feel very uncomfortable in admitting as much. And my guess is a lot of those who claim to be ahead are telling porkies.
Depends how a punter bets, Judge. I don’t gamble – I invest, it’s not that “tough” when you know how and are willing to put the hard work in. Although there are many who know the form book backwards, but will not “win at gambling” because they can not translate “form” in to “chance” which is essential to make an overall profit.
But you’re right not believing all those who say they make a profit. Often punters totally dismiss times when showing a deficit, because the mind is saying he/she was doing something wrong. Where as he/she believes profitable times were where he/she was doing things correctly. Therefore, he/she subconsciously and/or conveniently thinks forgetting the losing run is the right thing to do. Where as (for most) those profitable times were just the winning runs any punter can expect. In truth (for most) they don’t make up for the losing runs any punter can expect.
Only those who’ve shown a good understanding of horse racing and betting deserve to be believed. I’d estimate there are probably fewer than 15 regular TRF posters who genuinely make a profit… Take a look on DLAP and the competitions threads and see how many regularly (and the word “regularly” matters) show a profit. Be free not to believe me either, because it’s up to you and you alone who to believe.
Interesting but I think you might be overanalysing it ginge. I think it’s just easier for most to pretend that they win than admit that the activity they invest so much time in they fail at, and the anonymity of an internet forum allows them to do so.
I wouldn’t go to work this week for say 24 hours and come home with minus 200 pts
Haha
I don’t gamble – I invest
You gamble
It’s the same as someone who understands the stock market investing, call that gambling if you wish Nathan.
Value Is EverythingSo at what stage of an overall winning run would one turn from gambler to investor…..?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
So at what stage of an overall winning run would one turn from gambler to investor…..?
Don’t have to be on a “winning run” at all, it is a punter’s overall record that matters.
An expert investor in the stock market invests every time he/she puts money in to the stock market, even though not all investments return a profit. At times, the chance of profit on a particular investment might be slim, but that slim chance of success could show potentially very high returns which make it worth investing.
Someone who is not an expert in the stock market who puts money in without a very good understanding of the market is gambling.
Same with horse racing, but an investor in racing needs to understand both the racing/form and markets.
If only betting @ 11/10 (or better) about something I believe has a fair Even money chance, why is that not “investing”?
If only betting @ 3/1 (or better) about something I believe has a fair 5/2 chance, why is that not “investing”?
If only betting @ 10/1 (or better) about something I believe has a fair 17/2 chance, why is that not “investing”?
If only betting @ 33/1 (or better) about something I believe has a fair 25/1 chance, why is that not “investing”?
If only betting @ 100/1 (or better) about something I believe has a fair 50/1 chance, why is that not “investing”?
etc.Value Is Everything
without backing a winner, especially if you’re punting at large prices
haha) cannot be that difficult with bet history online?- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.