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i keep a record of all my bets and i dont throw cheeky bets around and am afraid to say judge i do ok(lol)
The role of luck is interesting. Whatever your strategy and level of skill any given season can be above or below average. I reckon, however, that over a 5 to 10 year period luck will gravitate to the mean. Therefore, you have to give yourself at least a couple of seasons and during that time you will be gaining knowledge and experience. You never stop learning.
Judge it’s not about oneupmanship. I spend most of my time travelling to racecourses and juggle that with a young family. Hence I don’t have the time to study enough to show a profit. I have followed my mate Andrew Mount who writes a column for GG.com and his own personal marks, and Roger Bush who charges for tips via his WestCountry Racing for years. Last year both sources made a profit but I found myself £726 down over the year. Like I said in a previous post I always thought I won money on multiples, last year was the first time I used a detailed spreadsheet including multiples. There was no hiding the fact I lost over £3000 betting to win fortunes on doubles trebles etc. Both my sources look for value, and they both win. Of course you could hit a treble and win a row of houses but the odds against it are true odds, I slashed my multiple outlay by 10 so instead. This year they are still costing me £400 but I always like to give myself the chance of a big win, except now it will be a house and not a row. The other thing I have learned over the years is staking is probably the most important part of any successful betting. You need a decent bank, I’d say if you bet to £10 units you’ll need a grand. Every winner finding source be it your own skill or my lazy way will suffer bad losing runs. If it’s value you look for, very long ones, and they take the mick too, beaten by noses, fifth in 16 runner handicaps etc but if your bank is there and you stay disciplined it can change in an instant and you have that psychological edge. Back in 2008 I had the best year ever, upped my stake from £20 to £40 a point and nearly went skint after the worst run of luck you can imagine in 2009, my lesson well and truly learned. I’m now comfortable with tenners in the knowledge that with 100 points in reserve I’m going to withstand the worse betting can throw. If you don’t stick to a discipline you’ll end up losing, whatever your level. This year has worked out pretty much as last but I’m not doing my £3k on multiples so nicely up.
Yeah the staking is very important. I find it boring betting tenners yet I lack the bank really to bet say 50 a time, therefore you end up missing winners as you end up going bust. That can be terribly frustrating.
I used to back in 2009/2010.
I had them linked to our own commercial database that we ran at the time, so every single detail of every race I bet in could be queried – course, distance, race type, going, trainer, jockey etc etc etc! After vast analysis of two years of bets which I seem to remember was some 2700 records, I can safely say I learnt absolutely nothing from the experience.
Running queries on my database would immediately reduce the sample size to 500, 400, 100 etc which became in my opinion too small to learn anything rational. I ended up doing thousands of queries and it was just analysis paralysis really.
However, as far as discipline goes, you simply have to keep at least a money out, money in record or you just don’t know where you stand. But as SlowlyAway points out (as per his single account) all your turnover, profit, loss etc is automatically available nowadays. I bet virtually entirely on Betfair which has several functions to view your current state of play.
The only successful pro-punter (ahem!) I’ve ever heard of who’s not subscribed to this basic discipline is Dave Nevison who apparently never kept any records. And why would you when you can just bodge on and automatically collect vastly more when the races had been run?
Anyway, all this is merely an electronic version of Triptych’s biscuit tin method, which is probably the most rational of the lot.
Mike
Some interesting posts. My thoughts;
Always keep a record if you’re betting anything like seriously, by that I mean upwards of £500 per month. If you don’t have accurate data/feedback from what your doing how can you validate your methods and improve them!?
I can’t understand having one book maker account?! Have as many as possible (traditional & exchanges) to get the best odds, basically bet through oddschecker.
Value is absolutely KING, and value can be at any price. I look for races with a short priced favorite, around even money. If I think the horse has a 50% chance of winning then it’s priced correctly and it’s a no bet, if I think it’s got a better than 50% chance I play and the size (£) of the bet matches my confidence. If I think the horse has a less than 50% chance it’s a lay.
Multiples are for fun only (if losing is fun?!), not for making long term profit. They are bad bets. SINGLE – HORSES – WIN is a good motto to bet by.
Don’t bet on more than 2 or 3 races a day at the most and study the bejesus out of them, trying to bet on any more than this is foolish.
Stick to Grade/Group races.
Get the early prices either the night before or first thing in the morning, have your bets placed then DON’T chase if your having a bad day.
Just some thoughts, I had some painful losing years when I started but by applying the above plus just having a good eye for a horse I made aprox 15% profit on turnover for 3 years running, which is pretty good going. I don’t bet nowadays though…
I keep a record of my winnings but not the stakes I put on though this is fairly regular anyway. I retain my winning slips for a month and then hopefully do not have to pay from my own pocket in the next month when I cash these in against that month’s stakes. October was a surplus (I use that word as profit sounds like I’m running a business) month as I haven’t paid for a bet in November yet and should have a free weekend next as well. Also collected extra cash as well.
In fact the whole of 2016 has been a good year. The flat season was just that betting wise – Flat. But made money in Jan, Feb, March (Cheltenham) and April (£1K lucky 15 win).
But it’s probably only the 2nd/3rd time I’ve made a surplus since I started betting regularly in about 2003.
If I did keep a record to the exact penny then I may start to chase especially if I was a small amount down in December and I was trying to get into surplus for that year.
I bet less than I can afford so there is no real need for me to keep exact records.
Judge. You’ve pinpointed the problem right there. You can’t afford to bet to £50’s, you need to get real with your staking, start with stakes you can afford and up them when your bank doubles. It maybe boring betting to tenners but it won’t be watching your winnings grow and not enduring the stress of going skint just before the inevitable next winner. Bookies love punters that bet too big for their boots – they’ll always get you in the end.
Judge. You’ve pinpointed the problem right there. You can’t afford to bet to £50’s, you need to get real with your staking, start with stakes you can afford and up them when your bank doubles. It maybe boring betting to tenners but it won’t be watching your winnings grow and not enduring the stress of going skint just before the inevitable next winner. Bookies love punters that bet too big for their boots – they’ll always get you in the end.
I’m not sure that’s the only problem though. It’s my belief that most losing punters (of which I’d count myself as one) tend to blame bankroll management as the reason they are not winning, choosing to ignore the fact that they probably didn’t have an “edge” in the first place.
That’s why betting tenners a time doesn’t interest me, I feel that I wouldn’t get any excitement out of it and I’d probably get ground down over the course of time in any case.
This is why I’m so surprised that almost everyone on these forums claim to be winners, apparently 95 percent of punters are long term losers, and yet when you go on a forum this seems to swing the other way. I’d like to hear from those posters who have experienced the other side, and are honest enough to admit that they are losing overall.
It can’t surely be that being intelligent enough to put a sentence together means you are bound to be a sure-fire winner?
Judge. You’ve pinpointed the problem right there. You can’t afford to bet to £50’s, you need to get real with your staking, start with stakes you can afford and up them when your bank doubles. It maybe boring betting to tenners but it won’t be watching your winnings grow and not enduring the stress of going skint just before the inevitable next winner. Bookies love punters that bet too big for their boots – they’ll always get you in the end.
I’m not sure that’s the only problem though. It’s my belief that most losing punters (of which I’d count myself as one) tend to blame bankroll management as the reason they are not winning, choosing to ignore the fact that they probably didn’t have an “edge” in the first place.
That’s why betting tenners a time doesn’t interest me, I feel that I wouldn’t get any excitement out of it and I’d probably get ground down over the course of time in any case.
This is why I’m so surprised that almost everyone on these forums claim to be winners, apparently 95 percent of punters are long term losers, and yet when you go on a forum this seems to swing the other way. I’d like to hear from those posters who have experienced the other side, and are honest enough to admit that they are losing overall.
It can’t surely be that being intelligent enough to put a sentence together means you are bound to be a sure-fire winner?
I believe statistically 92% of punters are long term losers. How many people percentage-wise post on such forums? I’d estimate way less than 1%. How many members does this site have compared to regular “bettors”? It stands to reason that successful people tend to migrate to their own kind, it’s sort of human nature.
Judge – I was a long term losing punter without doubt…lost thousands and thousands over the years! Very nearly lost a lot more than that too…my mindset was definitely different, always after the big win, always chasing…every single penny I could lay my hands on would be lost! Got so bad I did time at GA and took a 4/5 year break from gambling.
I always had a real love for horse racing though, with or without having a bet..because I’ve a good lady she now controls what I’m allowed and that helps a lot because once my weekly allowance has gone that’s it until the week after. I respect money much more now anyway and have always been tight being a Yorkshireman so it all helps!
I look at my running total regularly and it’s a bit of a challenge, plus when I do have a decent win I treat the Mrs and kids and pay for my own race days…going to Haydock on Satirday all through money I’ve put aside from my last decent run…
I don’t believe there’s any proper way to bet…no staking plans, no particular types of bets or races…just enjoy and be prepared to lose and never chase or bet more than you can afford to lose! Suppose we’re all different though…
I don’t believe there’s any proper way to bet…no staking plans, no particular types of bets or races…just enjoy and be prepared to lose and never chase or bet more than you can afford to lose! Suppose we’re all different though…
That’s my philosophy too Zam. Although I can still get a bit narked when I lose. That’s mainly when I study a race, think something’s a good bet, change my mind and then the original pick wins. Smad Place was a fine example in the Hennessy last year.
and have always been tight being a Yorkshireman so it all helps!
I’m one of those too
Judge. You’ve pinpointed the problem right there. You can’t afford to bet to £50’s, you need to get real with your staking, start with stakes you can afford and up them when your bank doubles. It maybe boring betting to tenners but it won’t be watching your winnings grow and not enduring the stress of going skint just before the inevitable next winner. Bookies love punters that bet too big for their boots – they’ll always get you in the end.
I’m not sure that’s the only problem though. It’s my belief that most losing punters (of which I’d count myself as one) tend to blame bankroll management as the reason they are not winning, choosing to ignore the fact that they probably didn’t have an “edge” in the first place.
That’s why betting tenners a time doesn’t interest me, I feel that I wouldn’t get any excitement out of it and I’d probably get ground down over the course of time in any case.
This is why I’m so surprised that almost everyone on these forums claim to be winners, apparently 95 percent of punters are long term losers, and yet when you go on a forum this seems to swing the other way. I’d like to hear from those posters who have experienced the other side, and are honest enough to admit that they are losing overall.
It can’t surely be that being intelligent enough to put a sentence together means you are bound to be a sure-fire winner?
I believe statistically 92% of punters are long term losers. How many people percentage-wise post on such forums? I’d estimate way less than 1%. How many members does this site have compared to regular “bettors”? It stands to reason that successful people tend to migrate to their own kind, it’s sort of human nature.
Way less than 1 percent? Are you on the wind-up?
Your statement sounds like a huge load of pretentious codswallop to me, either you are fishing or are completely delusional.
If you’re a recreational punter then keeping betting records is about as worthwhile as keeping drinking records if you’re a recreational dipso: pointless but quite possibly a worrying eye-opener
If your motive is solely to try and return a profit then keeping detailed records is a must. You are attempting to run a business and all businesses need to record profit and loss on turnover. Furthermore they need to know what is profitable and what isn’t and that can only be gleaned by analysing a representative sample of the stock-in-trade you’re turning over
The retail and betting brain has an unfortunate habit of exaggerating the positive and understating the negative: the bottom line of the ledger doesn’t
If you’re a recreational punter then keeping betting records is about as worthwhile as keeping drinking records if you’re a recreational dipso: pointless but quite possibly a worrying eye-opener
If your motive is solely to try and return a profit then keeping detailed records is a must. You are attempting to run a business and all businesses need to record profit and loss on turnover. Furthermore they need to know what is profitable and what isn’t and that can only be gleaned by analysing a representative sample of the stock-in-trade you’re turning over
The retail and betting brain has an unfortunate habit of exaggerating the positive and understating the negative: the bottom line of the ledger doesn’t
This
I bet solely online so the record keeping is done and dusted.
One thing that irks is the reasoning £500 is “serious” and tenner “unexciting”. I’ve always bet miles within my means but a tenner to some can be a properly considered bet whereas £500 can be nothing to some tossers. I know someone well who bets a grand every race and barely looks at the form. Sometimes he so smashed up on Charlie and booze that he has no idea until he’s rung his bookie the next day whether he won or not ..
I’m not a gambler by nature but certainly take it seriously enough and can simply have two bets at a meeting if I think that is the right course to take and that’s all the card warrants (I’m interested enough in the sport to happily watch and take on board a lot of the time). Thus Doesn’t mean I bet short priced though..at all
To others a tenner is a fair bit of their disposable
The amount involved has nothing to do with the consideration and effort given to the punt
If you’re a recreational punter then keeping betting records is about as worthwhile as keeping drinking records if you’re a recreational dipso: pointless but quite possibly a worrying eye-opener
If your motive is solely to try and return a profit then keeping detailed records is a must. You are attempting to run a business and all businesses need to record profit and loss on turnover. Furthermore they need to know what is profitable and what isn’t and that can only be gleaned by analysing a representative sample of the stock-in-trade you’re turning over
The retail and betting brain has an unfortunate habit of exaggerating the positive and understating the negative: the bottom line of the ledger doesn’t
In essence I agree with you but this doesn’t completely answer my main point- that if as a gambler your records are showing that you are down, does this have a negative effect on your betting choices in future? And as a consequence of this, wouldn’t it be better to operate under the logic that “ignorance is bliss”?
I bet solely online so the record keeping is done and dusted.
One thing that irks is the reasoning £500 is “serious” and tenner “unexciting”. I’ve always bet miles within my means but a tenner to some can be a properly considered bet whereas £500 can be nothing to some tossers. I know someone well who bets a grand every race and barely looks at the form. Sometimes he so smashed up on Charlie and booze that he has no idea until he’s rung his bookie the next day whether he won or not ..
I’m not a gambler by nature but certainly take it seriously enough and can simply have two bets at a meeting if I think that is the right course to take and that’s all the card warrants (I’m interested enough in the sport to happily watch and take on board a lot of the time). Thus Doesn’t mean I bet short priced though..at all
To others a tenner is a fair bit of their disposable
The amount involved has nothing to do with the consideration and effort given to the punt
I take your point but in my experience if you bet small amounts you can end up doing too many “throwaway bets” rather than holding back some ammunition for something that you’re more confident on.
Just to give an example I can think of many days when there’s one horse or bet that i’m very confident on, and I’m umming and aahing between just backing that and spreading my outlay on several more bets.
I know if I only bet tenners I’ll end up putting four or five bets on. The one horse I’m “confident” on ends up winning but I end up down overall as the throwaway bets inevitably lose.
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