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I’m all about NH; generally don’t pay much attention to the flat. However, if what people are saying about this Teofilo is true, it simply cannot lose. I have to say I like horses that win the Dewhurst in the classics the following season, and it’s already rated 4lbs higher than Sir Percy was when he won last year. So all in all, a pretty solid candidate.
At the moment I think the Derby is wide open to be honest. I don’t know where people get this Teofilo can’t lose notion its a naive view in my opinion. There have been god knows how many "great horses" who "couldn’t lose" : Gorytus, Celtic Swing, Xaar, Storm Bird, Tenby, High Estate, Toulon, Arazi the list goes on and on and on.
I always recall one particular interview regarding a horse called Forest Tiger. His trainer / owner (can’t remember which now) said after (I think) a group 3 win "This horse will never be beaten". I don’t think it won again.
Words are cheap. Teofilo could be anything, yes, but he’s got it all to prove still.
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(Edited by Flash at 7:47 pm on April 10, 2007)
any opinions on the horses with longer odds; eastern anthem, eagle mountain, maccarthur etc etc?
I like Eastern Anthem a lot. Won a soft ground maiden on debut by five lengths but in truth it could’ve been ten. He has the pedigree for a middle distance horse and him Mum won the Oaks and Guineas.
Has an official rating of 90 so on paper needs to improve a fair bit on known form.
I wouldn’t put anyone off anything for the Derby at this stage there are plenty of interesting double figured priced horses.
A really interesting horse for the Oaks though is John Oxx’s Four Sins. You can get 25/1 at the moment that is a barmy price. Four starts one win and a short head second in a Group 3 over seven furlongs and is absolutely certain to improve over a mile and a half as she’s by Sinndar out of a Darshaan mare.
The RPR is 98, I have her a few pounds higher than that. The sort of improvement expected for the extra five furlongs could put her right in the frame for the Oaks.
Measured Tempo is the Oaks winner. Not sure on the Derby winner just yet, however Authorized was very impressive at Newbury. The style of his win was more about speed than stamina so I don’t think quicker conditions should be any problem. Adagio and Proponent both also look like horses that will progress very well this year.
Macarthur could be the O’Brien one, full brother to Motivator.<br>Godolphin have one called Empire Day but they don’t have a good record of late in this race. <br>I also like Authorised.<br>
O’Brien seems pretty keen on Mount Nelson.. He’s the one from Ballydoyle.. Otherwise Authorised was impressive, i’d like to see him in the guineas as well..
<br>Here’s a breeding point possibly of interest but of course could be completely spurious.<br>I have had a look at the last 4 generations of the Derby winners since 1998 and it appears that none of them have Northern Dancer duplicated within their last 4 generations. Also delving further none of the Oaks winners or the Coronation Cup winners since 1998 have ND duplications in their past 4 generations either. perhaps one of the Forums breeding experts could comment. As I say it could have no meaning whatsoever.
Appears twice in the past 4 generations, for example Authorized has Northern Dancer as his Great Grandsire 3 generations back but also has him on his Damside 4 generations back.
My instinct is that this stat is nothing to worry supporters of Authorized.
This inbreeding to ND has only really become an issue in the last five years or so, when enough grand and greatgrandsons have had success to make this inbreeding fashionable.  For example, in 1998, none of the runners had a ND cross. I haven’t ploughed through all the runners since but no winners in the last 10 years would probably be an accurate reflection of the ratio of runners to winners.
Last year five of the 18 runners were inbred 4×4 or closer – Sixties Icon, Septimus, Horatio Nelson, and two of the rags.  That sample does not suggest that the cross is disfunctional or lacks stamina.
I’m not a big fan of close inbreeding to ND, but the likes of ROG show it is not a bar to a very good horse.
Thanks Sal, I see that in 8f Group 1’s in England and Ireland there are a lot of winners with ND duplications.<br>Also in the past few years there are many in the 10f group 1’s for fillies.<br>
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