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Ancient Wisdom looked like a horse that needs soft ground to produce his best… But do wonder whether one with such an exaggerated round action will come down the Epsom hill even with soft ground.
Value Is EverythingLA reminds me a little bit of Arrest who also ran in the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud (and just got chinned) that LA actually won and both were run on very deep French ground which put much more emphasis on stamina.
Arrest went on to win the Geoffrey Freer over 13.5F before running his best race in the St Leger and all that after not handling coming down the Hill at Epsom (albeit on much quicker ground) and it wouldn’t surprise me if LA ended up being a similar staying type……maybe via the Irish Derby at the Curragh which would suit his big galloping style much more.
I really hope something….anything steps up and produces a proper performance that elevates them well above the rest but I can well see the outcome of the race posing more questions over the quality of the middle distance 3yr olds going forward.
Arrest had / has a very exaggerated round action, LD.
Los Angeles doesn’t.Value Is EverythingClerk of the course saying yesterday it’ll be either slow side of good or, at worse, good to soft at race time. So the racing media frenzy about soft ground might turn out to be a red herring.
Meant more along the lines of their respective sizes and that they look more like the relentless galloping types that are better suited to a proper stamina test (on a galloping course) and appear to lack the tactical speed that can get you into trouble at Epsom especially coming down the hill.
“I don’t fear this Los Angeles at all, he’d be one of the worst favourites for the Derby I can remember”
Why would he be one of the worst favourites? It’s quite an open renewal. Could it be that whoever is favourite is one of the worst favourites? ;o)
https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/epsom/owners-and-trainers/the-going/
Mike – looking at the going report online (as at 3:36 today) the course is now soft all round (except for the 5f shute before it joins the rest of the course) with chances of heavy showers on Thursday but dry on Friday. I think good to soft is the most likely outcome althoug it may well depend on what they get (or don’t) Thursday.
5.2 on the going stick so directly between soft and heavy atm
Soft being 5.8 and heavy being 4.6
Stilvi, yes he hasn’t had the wow factor but the horse has had 3 starts since September. The quotes and their race planning of the horse suggest they see him as backward middle distance 3yo. So to do what he’s done in such a short time is pretty impressive.
I would imagine they are still unsure he’s “there yet” in terms of a Derby.Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Well done darren with the 33/1 on LA, i must admit, i had him picked out for this as i said but i never put a penny on and i did see him at the 33/1 at the time, which now feels silly
So ill just watch
I think he’ll win this well, deira mile to place would be an angle
But ill leave it off, likely wont bother watching it, some state the flat is in currently, its rotten
What are people’s thoughts on Dancing Gemini?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Jack, on breeding you would give him every chance of staying, and if he does stay the 12 furlongs well then I can’t see him out of the top 2.
However, I thought his finish in the Futurity was fairly weak and casts down on his ability to see out the 12 furlongs.
I’d love to see him win.
The last ten Derby winners had all won over at least a mile before running at Epsom.
These haven’t…
City Of Troy
Dancing Gemini
Macduff
Padesha
Mr HampsteadStats for the lazy, Mike.
Any such stat should surely be trying to weed out non-stayers, but that one doesn’t.Macduff has put up better performances at a mile in the Royal Lodge and even a mile and a quarter in the Sandown Classic Trial than many who’ve won lesser races at a mile. His profile actually suggests hell be far better at 1m4f than shorter. Ruling him out with that stat is crazy.
Dancing Gemini was unlucky in the French Guineas not to win. Putting up a performance better than many Derby runners have put up winning lesser races at a mile. That said, the way he travelled well, looking to be going best two out but seemingly did not get home in the Futurity… Suggests he won’t stay.
Value Is EverythingAncient Wisdom being backed currently now down to 9/2 due to all rain meant be in his favour
VF x
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