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I’ve backed Crowded House again after the confirmation that he runs. I can’t get his run at Doncaster out of my mind, absolutely smoking past the entire field. I know that the form has not entirely worked out, but I think at the prices, he offers a bit of value.
I was at York for the Dante, and that was too bad to be true, and i’m glad he scoped badly afterwards.
Well, after the Dante, Jamie Spencer said about Crowded House along the lines of "Ignore him at your peril".
I for one am keeping faith with CH and I think he’ll run a storming race on Saturday.Jamie Spencer has also said :
*If Sea The Stars stays he will kill them.
* The Dante rode like a very, very good race and Black Bear Island was impressive.
Johnny Murtagh has always claimed that Rip Van Winkle is an exceptional horse and John Magnier has reputedly said he thinks Fame And Glory could be a "very special" horse together with Seamie Heffernan quoting he gave the same feel as High Chapparal and Galileo.
They can’t all be right can they? It doesn’t pay to take too much notice of what connections / jockeys say.
Actions speak a lot louder than words and one horse will do the talking where it matters – on the racecourse on Saturday.
Actions speak a lot louder than words and one horse will do the talking where it matters – on the racecourse on Saturday.
Very true. This Derby, in particular, has intrigued me because there are so many good horses in it. Looks like one of the better Derbys in recent years.
Just a shame there not scattered among trainers with almost half the field belonging to Ballydoyle.
Battle of the jockeys rather than trainers.
Whether the horses are trained by the same trainer or not is irrelevant IMO. If the same horses were trained by different trainers then it would still be pretty much the same race. We should be thankful that Coolmore want to run all of them, otherwise we end up never seeing them race again (eg – Godolphin)
Seems Fame And Glory has become pretty popular late this evening with Betfair and Tote taking a bit of money on him, Rip Van Winkle pushed out by both. 9/2 you can get on him with Tote and are now best priced.
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Murtagh "My head and the Form Book say Fame and Glory, but I love Rip Van Winkle as a horse."
A few days earlier apparantly he said "I won’t let my heart rule my head"
I wonder if he cries at Lassie
Just a shame there not scattered among trainers with almost half the field belonging to Ballydoyle.
That cheeses me off. I’ve always thought that there should be a limit to how many runners a trainer can have in a race
… but this is just my honest opinion Age of Aquarius – One of the Ballydoyle contingent and, at 20/1 or thereabouts, well worthy of consideration. By hot sire Galileo, responsible for last year’s winner New Approach, out of a Top Ville mare, Age of Aquarius was always going to improve with time and with a trip. His narrow win in the Lingfield Derby trial did his reputation no real harm but against him is the fact that he has yet to be tried against top class opponents. If you fancy one at bigger odds I wouldn’t completely put you off this one. He needs to find some improvement but of those at longer odds he’s the most likely to come on in leaps and bounds.
Black Bear Island – Another O’Brien representative, Black Bear Island pulled off somewhat of a shock when winning the prestigious York Derby trial, The Dante Stakes, beating stable companion Fremantle a head. He had two of Saturday’s likely opponents, Kite Wood and Crowded House, well behind on that day and no particular reason to think they’ll turn the tables on Saturday. For me though the field finished in too much of a heap, barely two lengths covering the first six, and I’d expect a prospective Derby winner to have stretched that field more than that. At 7/1 he doesn’t appeal.
Crowded House – Another beautifully bred horse by Rainbow Quest out of a Woodman mare and again a horse with middle distances written all over him. It was therefore encouraging that he did so well at two, winning the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy. The form of that doesn’t look great now though and Crowded House was very disappointing, even allowing for him needing the run, when well down the field in the Dante. Readily overlooked for this (25/1)
Debussy – currently a 33/1 and even at those odds doesn’t appeal. In his favour is the fact that he’s won round Epsom but his limitations were exposed when unable to strike a blow behind two of Saturday’s rivals Golden Sword and Masterofthehorse at Chester.
Fame And Glory – The third of Aidan O’Brien’s sextet and many judges think this to be the pick of his runners. Very well regarded at home and followed a route O’Brien has used before with his best colts. Fame And Glory had taken in the Ballysax and the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and has won convincingly on both occasions, wins that promoted him to Derby favouritism. On the plus side he won the latter race with five lengths to spare and looked very much like a horse for whom the extra two furlongs at Epsom would hold no fears. On the negative he’s been overlooked by stable jockey Johnny Murtagh, he swished his tail when shown the whip last time (you don’t particularly want a horse to do that when he comes under pressure approaching the final furlong if he’s in a dogfight at Epsom) and the horses he beat in the Derrinstown were pretty much the same lot he’d already beaten in the Ballysax. For me, full of promise though he is, he still has something to prove and I wouldn’t want to be backing him heavily at current odds (3/1 fav)
Gan Amhras – Another Galileo colt and while he is Irish he’s one of those rare horses in the race, a horse with a major chance who isn’t trained at Ballydoyle. He is, in fact, trained by Jim Bolger who trained last year’s winner, after somewhat controversially stating beforehand that he didn’t much like Epsom. No doubt New Approach’s win changed all that and in Gan Amhras he has another major contender. Third behind Sea The Stars in the Guineas, Gan Amhras was doing his best work at the finish and you’d say that, on pedigree, he has the better chance of staying the Derby trip than his Newmarket conqueror. There was plenty to like about his Newmarket effort and I’m confident that he has both the ability and the likely staying power to last home up the Epsom hill. Very much one for the shortlist. (7/1)
Golden Sword – Winner of the Chester Vase, famously won by Shergar in his Derby preparation some 28 years ago, Golden Sword was expected to play second fiddle on that day to his better fancied stable companion Masterofthehorse. Golden Sword made the running at Chester and, at a track where it can be hard to peg them back, Masterofthehorse just failed to catch him. I thought Golden Sword nicked it a little that day and I expect to see him cutting out the running in front again. It takes a really good horse to win from the front in the Derby though and, up Epsom’s long straight I’d expect him to struggle to stay in front much beyond the two furlong pole. His best chance is if they give him an easy lead and with a smaller than average field there is a possibility that could happen. Not for me though. (25/1)
Kite Wood – Yet another colt sired by former Derby winner Galileo, Kite Wood was an expensive acquisition for the Godolphin operation having been bought out of the Michael Jarvis yard over the winter. He’ll be ridden by Frankie Dettori on Saturday and is guaranteed to attract a fair bit of sentimental cash from punters as a result but on his run in the Dante, and on his two year old form, you’d struggle to fancy him for this. He’ll be fitter on Saturday than at York but he’ll need to significantly improve and I don’t think he’ll be good enough. (20/1)
Masterofthehorse – he’ll be joining the queue waiting for Aidan O’Brien to saddle on Saturday but I don’t think he’s in the stable’s top three. Well thought of last year he ended up with a poor run in the Racing Post Trophy won by Crowded House. His run behind Golden Sword at Chester was fair, he looked to me like he’d have beaten the winner that day if he’d not been given too much to do, but it was no more than fair and he’s not the one for me I’m afraid. (11/1)
Montaff – One of the rare home trained runners this year, out of the Mick Channon yard. Montaff was narrowly beaten by Age of Aquarius at Lingfield but the winner looked to have more scope and with the first three finishing in a bunch you’d have to think that if any of them is going to figure at Epsom they’ll have to make a fair degree of improvement. Not completely out of it but by the same token no real grounds for suggesting he can win a Derby at this stage.(40/1)
Rip Van Winkle – A very interesting contender from The O’Brien stable and, since Johnny Murtagh confirmed this one as his selection from the ‘Ballydoyle Six’ his odds have came tumbling down. Yet another Galileo colt (Galileo has the same sort of stranglehold on this year’s Derby as O’Brien!) Rip Van Winkle has run four times, winning his first two and then, when brought over for England’s top two year old race, the Dewhurst, he disappointed behind Intense Focus. That was no Derby winning performance but he looked an altogether different proposition next time in the Guineas when he ran a great race to be fourth, running on well in the closing stages. Always highly regarded at Ballydoyle he looks certain to be better over a trip but, however promising that Guineas run was (he finished ahead of stable companion Mastercraftsman who went on to rout his opponents next time in the Irish Guineas) it is a little hard to fancy a horse to win the Derby coming off a failure to get into the first three in either of his last two races. I find Rip Van Winkle hardest to weigh up of the main contenders but, on balance, I just think if he was going to win the Derby he’d have ben closer in those last two runs. (9/2)
Sea The Stars – In the immediate aftermath of the Guineas, which Sea The Stars won impressively, all the talk was of the Derby and the horse was quickly backed into favouritism. However, enthusiasm has begun to wane, mainly due to Fame And Glory’s impressive Derrinstown win, Murtagh’s selection of Rip Van Winkle and doubts over Sea The Stars ability to see out the trip at Epsom. Make no mistake if you don’t stay every inch you don’t win the Derby and any chinks in Sea The Stars’ armour will be found out by the O’Brien pacemakers, who are almost guaranteed to force a fast pace to try to ensure that Sea The Stars doesn’t get an easy time of it. There is no doubting the horse’s speed, his Guineas win was visually impressive, but I have quite a bit of doubt whether he’s bred for the trip, especially given the speed he’s shown. History is littered with Guineas winners who haven’t stayed at Epsom and, at 11/4, I’d be taking this one on if I were a bookie on Saturday.
South Easter – Lester Piggott’s son-in-law William Haggas already knows what it’s like to win the Derby, he won with Shaamit, but it’ll be a major surprise if he repeats the feat with South Easter. Winner of Chester’s Dee Stakes, which looked the poor relation to the Chester Vase run at the same meeting, South Easter has only run twice and is likely to improve. However, there is a gulf between winning a closely fought Dee Stakes (the first four were separated by two heads and a neck) and wining a Derby. Currently 33/1 but I’d be keeping my money in my pocket on this one.
So, what will win? I’ll overlook Sea The Stars on stamina grounds while Montaff, South Easter and Debussy look likely to be outclassed. Golden Sword looks likely to force the pace and I don’t think he’ll be able to repeat the same trick he managed at Chester (stealing the race from the front) while Masterofthehorse needed to have performed better in his last two races for me to have Derby winner stamped on him. Kite Wood also looks like you’d need to be fairly imaginative to envisage winning. Crowded House, disputing favouritism before the Dante, was very disappointing at York and his racing Post Trophy win doesn’t look as good now as it did at the time while I think Age of Aquarius, while perhaps possessing more scope for improvement than some of the others, needed to have put distance between himself and Montaff last time if he was up to winning this.
All of which leaves Rip Van Winkle, Black Bear Island, Fame and Glory and Gan Amhras.
I am a little loathe to go against Johnny Murtagh and I do believe the horse will be better on Saturday than last time out but Rip Van Winkle needed to have been closer in the Guineas and the Dewhurst for me. Black Bear Island I quite like and that York form may yet be shown to be better than it’s being given credit for but he doesn’t look to have that extra spark one associates with Derby winners.
Of the remaining two it’s a hard pick. Fame and Glory ran a great trial last time, he couldn’t have done more really. But, on the basis that Murtagh hasn’t jumped straight on him and on the fact that he’s beaten the same bunch twice and we’re not sure how good that bunch really are I’m going to stick with Bolger’s Gan Amhras. I thought he ran a fantastic Derby Trial in the Guineas. I think he’ll be much better suited by the Derby trip than Sea The Stars and I think that form is probably the most solid around.
My Derby 1-2-3-4
1. Gan Amhras
2. Fame And Glory
3. Black Bear Island
4. Rip Van WinkleCormack makes it all seem so simple.
I hope his analysis is correct, or only one horse out.
Changing tack slightly, what did people reckon to Sea The Stars having a lazy lob when he arrived at Epsom? Will he keep it in tomorrow?
I always remember Red Glow walking around the Parade Ring with 5 legs.
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Probably just showing off, Gerald – thinks he’s the Fonz or something
I must admit that Rip Van Winkle is beginning to worry me a little, but if the ground stays good (or better) then I can only see one winner.
The one thing I have learned from being involved in racehorse ownership is to forgive a bad run. If you forgive Crowded House’s run in the Dante then he is no 20/1 shot. I think he’s an absolutely cracking e/w bet
Tuffers – I think Crowded House will improve but ‘forgiving bad runs’ is a quick route to the poor house.
Tuffers – I think Crowded House will improve but ‘forgiving bad runs’ is a quick route to the poor house.
Like I said, Corm, it’s a lesson I’ve learned through direct involvement with racehorses. I’ve also learned that it takes only a tiny improvement to turn round a 4 length defeat.
Cormack, you are guilty of the crime that is my forte – you have stretched out someone else’s words.
Tuffers said one bad run.
You have stretched it out to bad runs.
Gerald
… but this is just my honest opinion 
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