Dead Wood Already

[sketti]

In the spirit of ante post dilemma hilarity, I thought I’d share with you all my early door losses. It’s ante post I had some good prices

Arkle – Vautour 1 Point
Mares – Morning Run 1 Point
RSA – Champagne West 2 points EW
Bumper – Half point EW
Ryanair – Dynaste 3 Points
Ryanair – Champagne Fever 2 Points (Not a loser just yet)
Triumph – Bristol De Mai 3 Points
Albert Bartlett – Fletchers Flyer 4 Points

Also Got Alvisio Ville for 6 Points over bot Supreme and Neptune – Hope to get a run.

I’d like to add, I work on an aggressive staking, post christmas spread where some of these losers are a gain n other bets. It would sill be nice to have arrows.

Most hurtful though? Probably Bristol and Fletchers. Who both might, probably not have won their targets, just ones I had a fell in love with. FLetcher FLyer is a real hurtful one because I can see him going to Aintree and I might go in again only to lose more…..

[stevecaution]

In the spirit of ante post dilemma hilarity, I thought I’d share with you all my early door losses. It’s ante post I had some good prices

Arkle – Vautour 1 Point
Mares – Morning Run 1 Point
RSA – Champagne West 2 points EW
Bumper – Half point EW
Ryanair – Dynaste 3 Points
Ryanair – Champagne Fever 2 Points (Not a loser just yet)
Triumph – Bristol De Mai 3 Points
Albert Bartlett – Fletchers Flyer 4 Points

Also Got Alvisio Ville for 6 Points over bot Supreme and Neptune – Hope to get a run.

I’d like to add, I work on an aggressive staking, post christmas spread where some of these losers are a gain n other bets. It would sill be nice to have arrows.

Most hurtful though? Probably Bristol and Fletchers. Who both might, probably not have won their targets, just ones I had a fell in love with. FLetcher FLyer is a real hurtful one because I can see him going to Aintree and I might go in again only to lose more…..

I’ve taken a shot in the dark on a few vs Pricewise picks regarding the races they might turn up in and every single one of them looks like turning out the wrong decision.

I still can’t see why Willie Mullins would send something up against Vautour in the JLT when the horse is continuing to harden as favourite. Maybe Willie thinks it’s more open than the punters do.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[sketti]

Is that Valseur?

Gigginstown will almost certainly decide their route, mullins hasn’t the final call

They have:
Very Wood NH Chase
DP RSA
Valseur JLT

It is the right route in my opinion.

I’ll be happy with VW who looks a spring stayer.

The other two can welt.

[sketti]

Mullins would go:

DP NH Chase
Valseur RSA
Vautour JLT

If Ricci had the right mind he should be taking on UDS in the arkle. That is my opinion, i haven’t seen a more impressive supreme for a while.

[sketti]

Supreme winner i hasten to add.

Depth f that race has only just sprung to me, it might not be that good.

[stevecaution]

Is that Valseur?

Gigginstown will almost certainly decide their route, mullins hasn’t the final call

They have:
Very Wood NH Chase
DP RSA
Valseur JLT

It is the right route in my opinion.

I’ll be happy with VW who looks a spring stayer.

The other two can welt.

It was Gitane Du Berlais I picked as a left-field shot for the RSA but Willie’s pointing her at the JLT now.

I also took Djakadam for the Ryanair but Willie says he’s decided on The Gold Cup. Watching him tire in the Hennessey I feel his chance was better at the shorter race but I suppose Willie just hasn’t got two really reliable contenders in Boston Bob and On His Own. I think Djakadam will "puncture" in the Gold Cup. He stayed well enough last time in bad conditions but was facing much lesser horses there and it’s my own belief that you only really prove something when you achieve it against the best opposition.

My thinking with Gitane Du Berlais was that she won’t have the speed for the Arkle, faced one of the early Cheltenham bankers, for some, in The JLT and might end up in the RSA by default. Coneygree has emerged now to add depth to the latter race but I just can’t see Gitane coping with Vautour and Ptit Zig.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Shack1]

Champion – Un De Sceuax 12/1 (not technically dead yet…)
Gold Cup – Champagne Fever 14/1 (not technically dead yet…)
– O’Faolins Boy 20/1
RSA – Lots of Memories 100/1
X Country – Micheal Flips 12/1 16/1

Hanging by a thread:

World Hurdle – More of That 4/1
4 Miler – Wounded Warrior 8/1
Bumper – Au Quart de Tour 10/1
Neptune – Alvisio Ville 10/1
Ryanair – Eduard 25/1

Non are too hurtful, More of That the biggest loser, most of the above are speculative shots that didn’t come off or in the case of Alvisio Ville, following the market plunge to save embarrassment of having him in the Supreme at 33s !!

Shake my head at backing UDS, couldn’t even get him for the right obstacles

[sketti]

Hang on, Fletchers Flyer is still entered. He disappeared on Wed for a small while.

I am on Wounded Warrior too. Not looking good.

Also have a small ew on Little King Robin which looks dusted.

[stilvi]

Vautour – 5/1 Arkle

Very disappointing the last twice and unless Cheltenham and better ground bring significant improvement don’t see him winning anything.

Tell Us More – 10/1 Neptune

Very much one of those hype horses. Looked pretty weak despite having the run of things last time and the vibes I am reading suggest he is a doubtful runner.

Valseur Lido – 10/1 RSA

Seems to be heading JLT. Disappointing he couldn’t beat Apache Stronghold last time despite travelling and jumping the better. Coming back from a lengthy absence so maybe a little fragile. Struggling to see him winning whichever race he targets.

Very Wood – 20/1 RSA

A drying surface at Cheltenham should suit but markets strongly suggest that Gigginstown are more likely to explore the unknown territory of the four miler. Shame, it would nice to see an extremely competitive RSA.

Taquin Du Seuil – 25/1 Gold Cup

May well have been fortunate to win last year’s JLT and has never looked like a serious contender this season

Lesson from this is pretty clear. Without any inside track no real value in second guessing both Mullins and Gigginstown.

[thehorsesmouth]

Not too many down (yet), thankfully. Doubles with Vautour/Faugheen and Don Poli/Wounded Warrior look more than likely dead, as does a small bet on Djakadam for the Ryanair. Main losers are Vautour (Arkle) and Tell Us More (Neptune).

[sketti]

Now looks likemy 25-1 big one on Kilcrea is dead in the pan too.

THis is getting rather harsh, I seem to have somehow backed all the non runners so far.

[Author]

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