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Yetsterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Filippo Lippi Stake: £5.78 [7/2] 2^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £4.91
Shrewd Investment Stake: £4.45 [7/2] 2^5 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £4.17
Lidar Stake: £5.39 [5/2F] PU^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Bid Art Stake: £4.45 [2/1] F^4 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Joe Le Taxi Stake: £4.94 [EvensF] 1^3 Win Return: £9.89 E/W Return: £9.89
Win Total: £9.89 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £18.97 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£79.24
New E/W running total = -£52.19Non-Handicaps
=============Edgeworth Stake: £4.46 [10/1] 9^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Sircozy Stake: £3.97 [2/9F] 1^3 Win Return: £4.86 E/W Return: £4.86
Araldur Stake: £5.48 [30/100F] 1^8 Win Return: £7.13 E/W Return: £6.47
No Idea Stake: £4.64 [7/4F] 3^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.13
Trojan Sun Stake: £6.45 [9/2] 6^13 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £11.99 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £14.46 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£0.27
New E/W running total = -£7.95Today’s selections – blimey, it’s a quiet day today
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£79.24
E/W running total = -£52.19
Looksmart Lingfield 03:10 Rat:2250 Stake: £4.22
Teshali Taunton 03:20 Rat:2405 Stake: £4.51
Bunce Lingfield 03:40 Rat:2308 Stake: £4.33
Earth Planet Taunton 03:50 Rat:2434 Stake: £4.57
Shacklesborough Taunton 04:20 Rat:3927 Stake: £7.37
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = -£0.27
E/W running total = -£7.95
Bold Addition Taunton 02:20 Rat:4085 Stake: £7.34
I Confess Lingfield 02:40 Rat:1779 Stake: £3.20
Qozak Taunton 02:50 Rat:4277 Stake: £7.68
Karasenir Southwell 03:00 Rat:2031 Stake: £3.65
Calcot Rose Taunton 05:20 Rat:1748 Stake: £3.14
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Looksmart Stake: £4.22 [12/1] 8^12 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Teshali Stake: £4.51 [3/1] 1^7 Win Return: £18.05 E/W Return: £12.97
Bunce Stake: £4.33 [Evs] 2^3 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Earth Planet Stake: £4.57 [3/1] 2^4 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Shacklesborough Stake: £7.37 [9/4F] 3^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £5.34
Win Total: £18.05 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £18.32 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£86.19
New E/W running total = -£58.87Non-Handicaps
=============Bold Addition Stake: £7.34 [2/11F] 1^4 Win Return: £8.67 E/W Return: £8.67
I Confess Stake: £3.20 [7/4F] 2^6 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £2.30
Qozak Stake: £7.68 [2/13F] 1^2 Win Return: £8.86 E/W Return: £8.86
Karasenir Stake: £3.65 [4/9F] 4^6 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Calcot Rose Stake: £3.14 [28/1] 10^11 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £17.53 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £19.83 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£7.74
New E/W running total = -£13.12When I started v2 of this, I deliberately left out adding a figure derived from the previous record of the horse in similar races. Interestingly, this has had the effect of making the HC performance rubbish and the non-HC performance better (but still not in profit).
So, I’ve re-introduced this figure which either adds or subtracts a figure from the horse’s rating if it has had previous comparable good/bad form since records began, which sounds grand, but in realilty only goes back to January 9th
, however, every day these records get more and more comprehensive. Since January 9th, I’ve got over 20,000 records of individual horse-in-race records.So, seeing as I’m on a waffling roll, I’ll briefly (or not) explain where a figure of 2620 comes from for Stargazing as an example for one of today’s selections. In all cases, the each number is factored with a bias for perceived importance.
This is made up of 443 for the trainer (Marco Botti), 240 for the jockey (Adam Kirby), 846 for the horse and 131 for the rating/weight (which is identical to all other entries in the field and only has a bearing in non-HC or when horses are out of the HC), plus 960 for being the top-rated trainer, jockey and horse in the race, making a grand total of 2620.
Over the last four weeks Marco Botti has had 4 winners and 2 places from 15 races, with a winstake of -6.55 and prize money of £11094.53.
At Wolverhampton since January 9th he has had 8 winners and 4 places from 24 races, with a winstake of +7.48 and prize money of £19820.47.
The 443 for Marco Botti is made up of 92 for current form, 74 for prize money, 132 for track form, 83 for track prize money, 62 for travelling from his base in Suffolk (roughly 150 miles).Over the last four weeks Adam Kirby has had 8 winners and 9 places from 40 rides with a winstake of -3.76 and prize money of £33524.64.
I don’t (yet) factor in the jockey’s form at a particular track.
The 240 for Adam Kirby is made up from 156 for current form and 84 for prize money.
I also don’t (yet) consider the trainer/jockey combination as a factor.Stargazing is in a 1mC6Hc rated 60 at 9st3. Since January 9th it’s record is 1^12 in a 1m1fC6Hc rated 52 at 8st13, 1^5 in a 1mC5Hc rated 55 at 8st13 and 2^6 in a 1m1fC5Hc rated 59 at 8st12, all at Wolverhampton. Each race gets a rating of 251, 260 and 102 respectively.
The 846 for the horse is made up of 25 for previous CD form, 140 for prize money, 68 for the form of horses whose previous three races have been 1-1-2 (which, for the record is 25 races, five winners and four places) and 613 for the previous records for this horse in similar races as shown above. I don’t (yet) consider how long ago these races were.For the record, the other horses in the 07:30 aty Wolverhampton are rated as follows:-
Stargazing 2620
Kyle of Bute 2044
Join Up 1422
Twisted 1322
Catching Zeds 1193
Serious Drinking 1145
Just Timmy Marcus 1116
Forward Feline 1063
Dazakhee 931
Aldo 923
Justcallmehandsome 829
Novay Essjay 810Today’s selections
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£86.19
E/W running total = -£58.87
Mason Hindmarsh Catterick 03:20 Rat:2656 Stake: £5.40
Body Gold Hereford 04:10 Rat:2036 Stake: £4.14
Ezzles Catterick 05:20 Rat:2399 Stake: £4.88
School For Scandal Wolverhampton 07:00 Rat:2584 Stake: £5.25
Stargazing Wolverhampton 07:30 Rat:2620 Stake: £5.33
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
============WIN running total = -£7.74
E/W running total = -£13.12
Dubai Crest Hereford 02:10 Rat:3191 Stake: £5.68
Cottage Flyer Hereford 03:10 Rat:2430 Stake: £4.32
Sizing Ireland Hereford 03:40 Rat:2825 Stake: £5.03
Little Fritz Hereford 05:10 Rat:3176 Stake: £5.65
Smart George Wolverhampton 08:00 Rat:2432 Stake: £4.33
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s results
Not a great day. Interestingly, though, outside of my top ten picks (i.e. in the other 18 races but with lower ratings), I managed [11/1] and [6/1] winners and [8/1] and [17/2] places.
If I’d biased slightly more heavily towards trainer form three of those four would have made the top ten, so something for me to keep an eye on.Handicaps
=========Mason Hindmarsh Stake: £5.49 [11/2] 6^9 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Body Gold Stake: £4.04 [16/1] 10^12 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Ezzles Stake: £4.94 [5/2F] 9^9 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
School For Scandal Stake: £5.26 [9/4] 2^4 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Stargazing Stake: £5.27 [7/4F] 5^12 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £- for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £- for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£111.19
New E/W running total = -£83.87Non-Handicaps
============Dubai Crest Stake: £5.66 [15/8F] 5^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Cottage Flyer Stake: £4.26 [4/1] 3^3 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Sizing Ireland Stake: £4.98 [6/4F] 3^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.24
Little Fritz Stake: £5.59 [11/10F] 3^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Smart George Stake: £4.51 [5/4F] 6^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £- for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £3.24 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£32.74
New E/W running total = -£34.88Today’s selections – edited to replace a no-runner
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£111.19
E/W running total = -£83.87
Havingotascoobydo Ludlow 03:35 Rat:2138 Stake: £4.24
Molko Jack Cork 04:55 Rat:2727 Stake: £5.40
Doctor Deejay Cork 05:55 Rat:3406 Stake: £6.75
Take Your Partner Wolverhampton 06:45 Rat:1896 Stake: £3.76
Black Coffee Wolverhampton 07:45 Rat:2449 Stake: £4.85
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
============WIN running total = -£32.74
E/W running total = -£34.88
Breedj Leicester 04:20 Rat:2818 Stake: £4.39
Merrjanah Leicester 04:50 Rat:2883 Stake: £4.49
Otage De Brion Ludlow 05:05 Rat:5677 Stake: £8.85
Sizing India Ludlow 05:35 Rat:2557 Stake: £3.99
Arderin Cork 06:55 Rat:2102 Stake: £3.28
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Havingotascoobydo Stake: £4.24 [9/4F] 1^12 Win Return: £13.77 E/W Return: £10.19
Molko Jack Stake: £5.40 [7/2F] 2^20 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £5.07
Doctor Deejay Stake: £6.75 [6/1] 5^17 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Take Your Partner Stake: £3.76 [8/13F] 1^4 Win Return: £6.07 E/W Return: £6.07
Black Coffee Stake: £4.85 [11/2] 3^6 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £19.84 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £21.33 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£116.35
New E/W running total = -£87.54Non-Handicaps
============Breedj Stake: £4.39 [7/2] 3^4 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Merrjanah Stake: £4.49 [20/1] 5^11 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Otage De Brion Stake: £8.85 [9/2] PU^12 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Sizing India Stake: £3.99 [11/8F] 1^13 Win Return: £9.47 E/W Return: £7.27
Arderin Stake: £3.28 [14/1] 15^24 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £9.47 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £7.27 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£48.27
New E/W running total = -£52.61Today’s selections.
Huge (but obvious) swing towards Stack’s horses at Dundalk today. As last year, he’s hit the ground at a gallop, prices will be poor I expect.
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£116.35
E/W running total = -£87.54
Amuse Me Stratford 02:40 Rat:3035 Stake: £3.76
Commemoration Day Stratford 04:40 Rat:3667 Stake: £4.54
Celerina Dundalk 07:00 Rat:7320 Stake: £9.06
Toraidhe Dundalk 08:00 Rat:3165 Stake: £3.92
Needwood Ridge Wolverhampton 08:10 Rat:3008 Stake: £3.72
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
============WIN running total = -£48.27
E/W running total = -£52.61
Eighteen Carat Newcastle 02:30 Rat:2692 Stake: £2.79
Yourgolftravel Com Stratford 03:10 Rat:2764 Stake: £2.86
Blue Dahlia Dundalk 06:30 Rat:5551 Stake: £5.75
Majuro Wolverhampton 07:10 Rat:3155 Stake: £3.27
Sikara Dundalk 08:30 Rat:9993 Stake: £10.34
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Amuse Me Stake: £3.76 [9/2] 4^6 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Commemoration Day Stake: £4.54 [100/30] 1^8 Win Return: £19.67 E/W Return: £13.62
Celerina Stake: £9.06 [9/4F] 1^11 Win Return: £29.45 E/W Return: £21.29
Toraidhe Stake: £3.92 [7/2F] 4^13 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Needwood Ridge Stake: £3.72 [2/1F] 2^5 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £2.79
Win Total: £49.12 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £37.71 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£92.23
New E/W running total = -£74.83Non-Handicaps
============Eighteen Carat Stake: £2.79 [15/8] 4^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Yourgolftravel Com Stake: £2.86 [22/1] F^13 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Blue Dahlia Stake: £5.75 [6/5F] 4^5 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Majuro Stake: £3.27 [30/100F] 1^4 Win Return: £4.25 E/W Return: £4.25
Sikara Stake: £10.34 [6/5F] 1^13 Win Return: £22.75 E/W Return: £17.79
Win Total: £27.00 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £22.03 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£46.27
New E/W running total = -£55.58Today’s selections
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£92.23
E/W running total = -£74.83
The Sneezer Gowran Park 03:15 Rat:5682 Stake: £7.10
Quazy de Joie Chepstow 03:50 Rat:2777 Stake: £3.47
R De Rien Sivola Chepstow 04:25 Rat:4810 Stake: £6.01
E Street Boy Chepstow 05:00 Rat:2924 Stake: £3.66
Nautical Approach Uttoxeter 05:45 Rat:3803 Stake: £4.75
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
============WIN running total = -£46.27
E/W running total = -£55.58
Days Hotel Gowran Park 02:10 Rat:4451 Stake: £4.61
Twist Pistol Chepstow 02:15 Rat:4783 Stake: £4.95
Rangitoto Chepstow 02:45 Rat:5005 Stake: £5.18
Catcherinscratcher Gowran Park 03:45 Rat:4274 Stake: £4.43
Nabah Doncaster 04:15 Rat:5630 Stake: £5.83
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========The Sneezer Stake: £7.10 [4/1] 12^20 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Quazy de Joie Stake: £3.47 [9/4F] 5^14 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
R De Rien Sivola Stake: £6.01 [8/1] 11^15 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
E Street Boy Stake: £3.66 [4/6F] 1^12 Win Return: £6.09 E/W Return: £5.18
Nautical Approach Stake: £4.75 [12/1] PU^9 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £6.09 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £5.18 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£111.14
New E/W running total = -£94.65Non-Handicaps
============Days Hotel Stake: £4.61 [9/1] 4^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Twist Pistol Stake: £4.95 [2/1F] 7^14 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Rangitoto Stake: £5.18 [5/2F] 1^12 Win Return: £18.14 E/W Return: £12.96
Catcherinscratcher Stake: £4.43 [12/1] 11^20 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Nabah Stake: £5.83 [7/2] 7^13 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £18.14 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £12.96 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£53.13
New E/W running total = -£67.62Running late today
Today’s selections
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£111.14
E/W running total = -£94.65
Rahya Cass Curragh 02:55 Rat:7912 Stake: £9.53
I Can Run Can You Market Rasen 03:40 Rat:3288 Stake: £3.96
Osteopathic Remedy Doncaster 03:55 Rat:3024 Stake: £3.64
Well Sharp Doncaster 04:55 Rat:3517 Stake: £4.23
Tullintain Limerick 05:45 Rat:3025 Stake: £3.64
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
============WIN running total = -£53.13
E/W running total = -£67.62
Super Sonic Boom Limerick 02:35 Rat:5918 Stake: £3.60
Lolly For Dolly Curragh 03:30 Rat:13862 Stake: £8.43
Lios A Choill Limerick 03:45 Rat:6399 Stake: £3.89
Parkers Mill Curragh 04:30 Rat:8843 Stake: £5.37
Hampshire Express Limerick 04:45 Rat:6110 Stake: £3.71
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s results and today’s selections may not appear until tonight. Silly me forgot to load my spreadsheet onto my USB stick.
If it gets emailed to me at work (which is unlikely as it’s 24MB) I’ll stick it on here, otherwise I’ll run it this evening (and no doubt get ten winners
).From my print-out, my ten selections from yesterday threw up one winner and two places in the HC and one winner in the non-HC.
Interstingly, the predictions for the other 19 races picked 7 winners and 4 places, winners included Lord Aeryn [11-2], Unaccompanied [4-1] and Cracking Lass [11-1] and places included With Hindsight [20-1].
So is that telling me to discount the top ten rated predictions and go for the next ten? That would be illogical but would have come out well yesterday.More food for thought.
(edited to remove one placed horse which was actually in my top ten after all)
Well, I did manage to get it, so here we are…
Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Rahya Cass Stake: £9.53 [9/1] 5^20 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
I Can Run Can You Stake: £3.96 [11/4F] 1^13 Win Return: £14.84 E/W Return: £10.76
Osteopathic Remedy Stake: £3.64 [40/1] 17^20 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Well Sharp Stake: £4.23 [8/1] 3^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £5.50
Tullintain Stake: £3.64 [4/1F] 3^16 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.64
Win Total: £14.84 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £19.91 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£121.30
New E/W running total = -£99.74Non-Handicaps
============Super Sonic Boom Stake: £3.60 [6/1] 10^17 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Lolly For Dolly Stake: £8.43 [9/2] 1^9 Win Return: £46.34 E/W Return: £31.17
Lios A Choill Stake: £3.89 [2/1] 8^16 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Parkers Mill Stake: £5.37 [100/30] 6^17 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Hampshire Express Stake: £3.71 [6/1] F^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £46.34 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £31.17 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£31.79
New E/W running total = -£61.45A quick summary after two weeks…
pretty unspectacular, but as the stats get more complete every day, I’ll persevere.Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£121.30
E/W running total = -£99.7470 runners, 14 winners plus a further 16 places
Best returns were:-
£29.45 on Celerina [9/4F]
£28.15 on Pere Blanc [7/2F]
£28.04 on Rossini Dancer [5/1]Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = -£31.79
E/W running total = -£61.4570 runners, 22 winners plus a further 10 places and five non-runners.
Best returns were:-
£46.34 on Lolly For Dolly [9/2]Today’s selections
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£121.30
E/W running total = -£99.74
Kykate Kelso 02:30 Rat:1548 Stake: £4.38
Duke of Malfi Kelso 03:00 Rat:1552 Stake: £4.39
Apollo Dnegro Folkestone 03:20 Rat:1501 Stake: £4.24
Kilbrannish Hill Kelso 05:00 Rat:1573 Stake: £4.45
Identity Parade Kelso 05:30 Rat:2669 Stake: £7.55
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
============WIN running total = -£31.79
E/W running total = -£61.45
Lord Ofthe Shadows Windsor 02:40 Rat:1191 Stake: £3.21
Chokurei Folkestone 02:50 Rat:1472 Stake: £3.97
Chamirey Kelso 03:30 Rat:2652 Stake: £7.16
Rupert Lamb Kelso 04:00 Rat:1568 Stake: £4.23
Atlas Shrugged Windsor 04:10 Rat:2380 Stake: £6.42
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)
, however, every day these records get more and more comprehensive. Since January 9th, I’ve got over 20,000 records of individual horse-in-race records.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.