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Okay, I’ve revised my method slightly, to take into account a horse earnings and form a little better hopefully. Starting again from scratch with the same top five rated HC and non-HC as before, here are today’s selections (a little late as the 2:10 has already run).
[Edited to correct the ratings for H/C, no change to the horses]
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = £-
E/W running total = £-
Rossinis Dancer Kelso 02:40 Rat:3228 Stake: £4.67
Pokfulham Kelso 03:10 Rat:3560 Stake: £5.15
Karasakal Lingfield 03:30 Rat:2529 Stake: £3.66
Raysrock Kelso 03:40 Rat:5096 Stake: £7.38
Present A Star Lingfield 04:30 Rat:2858 Stake: £4.14
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = £-
E/W running total = £-
Wyse Hill Teabags Kelso 02:10 Rat:4170 Stake: £7.71
Captain Dimitrios Wolverhampton 02:50 Rat:1755 Stake: £3.24
Hildisvini Lingfield 03:00 Rat:3040 Stake: £5.62
Quotica De Poyans Kelso 04:40 Rat:2249 Stake: £4.16
Turbolinas Kelso 05:10 Rat:2308 Stake: £4.27
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Rossinis Dancer Stake: £4.67 [5/1] 1^6 Win Return: £28.04 E/W Return: £19.27
Pokfulham Stake: £5.15 [5/2F] 7^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Karasakal Stake: £3.66 [7/1] 7^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Raysrock Stake: £7.38 [7/2F] UR^9 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Present A Star Stake: £4.14 [8/11F] 5^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £28.04 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £19.27 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = £3.04
New E/W running total = -£5.73Non-Handicaps
=============Wyse Hill Teabags Stake: £7.71 [8/11F] 1^15 Win Return: £13.32 E/W Return: £11.07
Captain Dimitrios Stake: £3.24 [13/8F] 3^6 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Hildisvini Stake: £5.62 [10/11F] 1^14 Win Return: £10.73 E/W Return: £8.69
Quotica De Poyans Stake: £4.16 [5/4F] 1^10 Win Return: £9.36 E/W Return: £7.28
Turbolinas Stake: £4.27 [8/1] 10^15 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £33.40 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £27.04 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = £8.40
New E/W running total = £2.04Today’s selections.
Also a special mention goes to my favourite family of horses and todays runner, Lady De La Vega. She hasn’t made the top ten, but comes out top for the 4:10 at Exeter.
My note for this horse in particular dates back to 8th December 2009, when she ran into a modest third after being half a street back with a mile to go.Handicaps
=========WIN running total = £3.04
E/W running total = -£5.73
Take Your Partner Southwell 02:20 Rat:2924 Stake: £4.18
Pere Blanc Kempton 03:50 Rat:4373 Stake: £6.26
Betabob Kempton 04:25 Rat:3889 Stake: £5.56
Monsieur Jamie Southwell 04:40 Rat:2851 Stake: £4.08
Decision Kempton 05:00 Rat:3438 Stake: £4.92
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = £8.40
E/W running total = £2.04
Smart Catch Kempton 02:10 Rat:2477 Stake: £4.54
Henry King Kempton 03:15 Rat:3800 Stake: £6.97
Pascha Bere Exeter 03:35 Rat:3354 Stake: £6.15
Kipchak Southwell 04:05 Rat:2138 Stake: £3.92
Silver Adonis Kempton 05:30 Rat:1859 Stake: £3.41
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Take Your Partner Stake: £4.18 [5/2] 1^7 Win Return: £14.64 E/W Return: £10.72
Pere Blanc Stake: £6.26 [7/2F] 1^12 Win Return: £28.15 E/W Return: £19.94
Betabob Stake: £5.56 [5/1] 6^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Monsieur Jamie Stake: £4.08 [2/1F] UR^6 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Decision Stake: £4.92 [11/4] 2^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.81
Win Total: £42.79 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £34.47 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = £20.83
New E/W running total = £3.74Non-Handicaps
=============Smart Catch Stake: £4.54 [13/2] 2^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £5.23
Henry King Stake: £6.97 [NR] [NR] Win Return: £6.97 E/W Return: £6.97
Pascha Bere Stake: £6.15 [3/1] 2^5 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £5.38
Kipchak Stake: £3.92 [11/4F] 2^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.04
Silver Adonis Stake: £3.41 [100/30F] UR^9 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £6.97 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £20.62 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£9.63
New E/W running total = -£2.34Today’s selections
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = £20.83
E/W running total = £3.74
Maurisca Haydock 02:10 Rat:4477 Stake: £4.84
Glencree Haydock 02:40 Rat:4552 Stake: £4.92
Pantxoa Warwick 04:05 Rat:4296 Stake: £4.64
Hectors Choice Haydock 04:25 Rat:5931 Stake: £6.41
Sir Boss Kempton 08:20 Rat:3882 Stake: £4.19
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = -£9.63
E/W running total = -£2.34
Red Merlin Hereford 02:00 Rat:3058 Stake: £4.48
Highway Code Warwick 02:55 Rat:4541 Stake: £6.65
Miereveld Haydock 03:15 Rat:3232 Stake: £4.73
A Bridge Too Far Haydock 05:00 Rat:3159 Stake: £4.62
Ebanour Haydock 05:30 Rat:3089 Stake: £4.52
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Maurisca Stake: £4.84 [5/2F] 1^8 Win Return: £16.93 E/W Return: £12.09
Glencree Stake: £4.92 [6/4F] 2^4 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Pantxoa Stake: £4.64 [11/8F] 2^3 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Hectors Choice Stake: £6.41 [9/2] PU^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Sir Boss Stake: £4.19 [9/2] 2^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £4.46
Win Total: £16.93 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £16.55 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = £12.76
New E/W running total = -£4.71Non-Handicaps
=============Red Merlin Stake: £4.48 [2/5F] 1^5 Win Return: £6.27 E/W Return: £5.60
Highway Code Stake: £6.65 [9/4] 1^11 Win Return: £21.60 E/W Return: £15.62
Miereveld Stake: £4.73 [6/1] 3^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
A Bridge Too Far Stake: £4.62 [2/5F] 1^5 Win Return: £6.47 E/W Return: £5.78
Ebanour Stake: £4.52 [13/8F] 3^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.00
Win Total: £34.34 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £29.99 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£0.29
New E/W running total = £2.65Today’s selections.
The one stand-out selection of the day is Ainm Spartacus in the Thurles 2:55, due in no small part to his win at Limerick on 12th March. This shows a probably-too-heavy weighting towards prize money, but I’ll keep an eye on this over the coming days.Handicaps
=========WIN running total = £12.76
E/W running total = -£4.71
Ouest Eclair Carlisle 02:20 Rat:3719 Stake: £4.38
Double The Trouble Southwell 02:30 Rat:3526 Stake: £4.15
Victory Gunner Chepstow 03:15 Rat:5408 Stake: £6.37
Roudoudou Ville Chepstow 03:50 Rat:4371 Stake: £5.15
Against The Wind Carlisle 04:00 Rat:4215 Stake: £4.96
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = -£0.29
E/W running total = £2.65
Killultagh Queen Thurles 01:55 Rat:4502 Stake: £4.36
The Knoxs Carlisle 02:50 Rat:4935 Stake: £4.78
Ainm Spartacus Thurles 02:55 Rat:9241 Stake: £8.95
Popcorn Thurles 03:25 Rat:3670 Stake: £3.55
Oca De Thaix Chepstow 04:55 Rat:3476 Stake: £3.37
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)So much for Ainm Spartacus
As I said, there is a heavy bias at the moment towards horses that have run once won once since Xmas (or rather 09/Jan/11) as the prize factoring is skewed towards them – heaven forbid when Long Run comes out again
The more race data I capture, the more I hope that this skewing will reduce. I still want to continue factoring in prize money, for all of trainer/jockey/horse, but appreciate that the little data I have will affect the picks at the moment.
I have just been reading %MAN’s thread on system picks with interest (https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … 85656.html) and can see certain similarities in the way we do things. He (or she, not to be sexist) takes into consideration the type and class of race more than I do at the moment, mainly because I am still heavily into collating as much data as possible, but I was interested to note that he ignores lower class races becaue (to paraphrase) "the greater the pot, the greater the effort". This is very much in the same vein as VDW, which I’ve also been soaking up on.
Hopefully, my scattergun approach to building a computerised system will eventually bear fruit.
Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Ouest Eclair Stake: £4.38 [11/10F] 2^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £2.79
Double The Trouble Stake: £4.15 [13/8F] 1^5 Win Return: £10.89 E/W Return: £8.37
Victory Gunner Stake: £6.37 [6/1] 6^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Roudoudou Ville Stake: £5.15 [11/8F] 1^5 Win Return: £12.22 E/W Return: £9.57
Against The Wind Stake: £4.96 [3/1] 3^6 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £23.11 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £20.72 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = £10.87
New E/W running total = -£8.99Non-Handicaps
=============Killultagh Queen Stake: £4.36 [4/6F] 2^15 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £2.47
The Knoxs Stake: £4.78 [4/7F] 1^3 Win Return: £7.51 E/W Return: £7.51
Ainm Spartacus Stake: £8.95 [2/1] 4^5 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Popcorn Stake: £3.55 [4/7F] 1^17 Win Return: £5.58 E/W Return: £4.77
Oca De Thaix Stake: £3.37 [6/4F] 1^9 Win Return: £8.41 E/W Return: £6.39
Win Total: £21.50 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £21.14 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£3.79
New E/W running total = -£1.21Today’s selections.
Some interesting ones popping up today with the big-gun trainers in Henderson (Oasis Knight and Morcambe) and Nicholls (River Dor and Teshali) both featuring twice.
Both appear due to extremely good prize money per race in the last month. I expect this to balance out a little over time as they also enter a lot of horses.
Nicholls gets the nod over Henderson in two races where they clash due to the better jockey form. It should be noted, however, that Patsy Finnegan in the Newbury 03:50 comes very close to usurping them both with his very good form.Nicholls & Henderson’s prize money rating pales compared to that of Tommy Stack at Dundalk, who has £56k from two wins in only four outings in the last month, hence the inclusion of Miss Fairbanks and Pivotal Rock. A bias that needs to be kept an eye on.
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = £10.87
E/W running total = -£8.99
Morcambe Newbury 03:15 Rat:3020 Stake: £5.90
River Dor Newbury 03:50 Rat:2695 Stake: £5.26
Teshali Newbury 04:25 Rat:2440 Stake: £4.77
Noble Jack Dundalk 09:00 Rat:2249 Stake: £4.39
Mr Pianist Dundalk 09:25 Rat:2393 Stake: £4.67
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = -£3.79
E/W running total = -£1.21
Oasis Knight Newbury 02:10 Rat:3129 Stake: £4.91
Snowflake Dancer Dundalk 06:30 Rat:2327 Stake: £3.65
Miss Fairbanks Dundalk 08:00 Rat:5497 Stake: £8.62
Pivotal Rock Dundalk 08:30 Rat:2506 Stake: £3.93
Oh My Days Wolverhampton 08:45 Rat:2489 Stake: £3.90
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Morcambe Stake: £5.90 [16/1] PU^14 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
River Dor Stake: £5.26 [5/1] 3^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £5.27
Teshali Stake: £4.77 [16/1] 4^14 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Noble Jack Stake: £4.39 [20/1] 8^13 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Mr Pianist Stake: £4.67 [7/1] 9^14 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £- for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £5.27 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£14.13
New E/W running total = -£28.73Non-Handicaps
=============Oasis Knight Stake: £4.91 [9/2] 6^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Snowflake Dancer Stake: £3.65 [9/2] 1^9 Win Return: £20.06 E/W Return: £13.50
Miss Fairbanks Stake: £8.62 [NR] [NR] Win Return: £8.62 E/W Return: £8.62
Pivotal Rock Stake: £3.93 [12/1] 4^13 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Oh My Days Stake: £3.90 [10/11F] 3^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £2.31
Win Total: £28.68 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £24.42 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£0.11
New E/W running total = -£1.79Today’s selections
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£14.13
E/W running total = -£28.73
Moose Moran Newbury 01:45 Rat:3145 Stake: £4.43
Kerada Newbury 02:15 Rat:3554 Stake: £5.00
Violin Davis Newbury 02:50 Rat:4368 Stake: £6.15
Ten Bob Navan 03:55 Rat:2957 Stake: £4.16
The Hard Hat Navan 05:30 Rat:3740 Stake: £5.26
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = -£0.11
E/W running total = -£1.79
Waveband Lingfield 02:00 Rat:3368 Stake: £4.31
Captain Paulie Navan 02:15 Rat:3326 Stake: £4.26
Current Event Newbury 04:00 Rat:5098 Stake: £6.53
Saludos Navan 05:00 Rat:3442 Stake: £4.41
Broomfield Newbury 05:05 Rat:4290 Stake: £5.49
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s result
Handicaps
=========Moose Moran Stake: £4.43 [4/1] PU^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Kerada Stake: £5.00 [3/1F] F^9 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Violin Davis Stake: £6.15 [12/1] 2^18 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £12.29
Ten Bob Stake: £4.16 [11/1] 3^30 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £7.80
The Hard Hat Stake: £5.26 [9/2] 7^17 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £- for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £20.10 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£39.13
New E/W running total = -£33.63Non-Handicaps
=============Waveband Stake: £4.31 [13/2] 6^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Captain Paulie Stake: £4.26 [7/2] 1^22 Win Return: £19.17 E/W Return: £13.20
Current Event Stake: £6.53 [15/8] 1^7 Win Return: £18.77 E/W Return: £14.18
Saludos Stake: £4.41 [NR] [NR] Win Return: £4.41 E/W Return: £4.41
Broomfield Stake: £5.49 [11/10F] 2^15 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.35
Win Total: £42.34 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £35.14 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = £17.23
New E/W running total = £8.35Today’s selections
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£39.13
E/W running total = -£33.63
Breeze With Ease Downpatrick 03:20 Rat:3054 Stake: £5.81
Choumakeur Wincanton 03:25 Rat:2285 Stake: £4.35
Knocklayde Euro Downpatrick 03:50 Rat:3035 Stake: £5.77
Magic Marmalade Wincanton 04:25 Rat:2366 Stake: £4.50
Gimlis Rock Leopardstown 04:30 Rat:2400 Stake: £4.57
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = £17.23
E/W running total = £8.35
Mejd Downpatrick 02:20 Rat:2490 Stake: £3.66
Sikara Leopardstown 02:30 Rat:6269 Stake: £9.21
Fosters Cross Downpatrick 02:50 Rat:2882 Stake: £4.23
Thatll Do Wincanton 03:55 Rat:2499 Stake: £3.67
Indian Shamrock Downpatrick 04:20 Rat:2874 Stake: £4.22
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Today’s results
Handicaps
=========Breeze With Ease Stake: £5.81 [11/8F] 2^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.70
Choumakeur Stake: £4.35 [7/2C] 3^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Knocklayde Euro Stake: £5.77 [7/2] 2^12 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £5.41
Magic Marmalade Stake: £4.50 [9/4] F^5 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Gimlis Rock Stake: £4.57 [15/8F] 2^14 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.35
Win Total: £- for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £12.47 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£64.13
New E/W running total = -£46.16Non-Handicaps
=============Mejd Stake: £3.66 [20/1] RO^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Sikara Stake: £9.21 [NR] [NR] Win Return: £9.21 E/W Return: £9.21
Fosters Cross Stake: £4.23 [4/5F] 1^5 Win Return: £7.62 E/W Return: £6.35
Thatll Do Stake: £3.67 [NR] [NR] Win Return: £3.67 E/W Return: £3.67
Indian Shamrock Stake: £4.22 [8/1] PU^12 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £20.51 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £19.24 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = £12.74
New E/W running total = £2.59Today’s selections
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£64.13
E/W running total = -£46.16
Filippo Lippi Towcester 04:00 Rat:2407 Stake: £5.78
Shrewd Investment Plumpton 04:10 Rat:1853 Stake: £4.45
Lidar Towcester 04:30 Rat:2244 Stake: £5.39
Bid Art Plumpton 04:40 Rat:1852 Stake: £4.45
Joe Le Taxi Wolverhampton 04:50 Rat:2060 Stake: £4.94
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-handicaps
=============WIN running total = £12.74
E/W running total = £2.59
Edgeworth Plumpton 02:10 Rat:1786 Stake: £4.46
Sircozy Plumpton 03:10 Rat:1593 Stake: £3.97
Araldur Towcester 03:30 Rat:2198 Stake: £5.48
No Idea Plumpton 05:10 Rat:1858 Stake: £4.64
Trojan Sun Towcester 05:30 Rat:2585 Stake: £6.45
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)
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