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Pardon my greed but i’m still pondering how I got this race so wrong before I went to work this morning.
I backed Black Bear Island to place at 4/1 and thats it. Hmmm.
Maybe I should actually listen to my own ‘tips’ once in a while eh?
I dont think it is quite certain that Black Bear Island is only going to improve, simply because he is the brother of High Chaparral. Exact siblings are seldom the same on the track IMO. And unless I’m mistaken High Chaparral was an unbeaten 2yo Group1 winner/Ballysax/Derrinstown winner by this stage of his career also. So whether he improved with age or always had that bit of class about him is questionable IMO.
Also interestingly enough (I found anyway) was that, unless I am again mistaken, was the winner of the opening 5f sprint today by High Chaparral, if so then not quite what you would expect of him?
The Guineas form has worked out very well as has The Craven form Sans Frontiers placing and Glass Harmonium improved a great deal since that run.
Hills pair were a massive flop and has showed how a great week can be turned around just like that, every Hills’ horse has flopped this week.
Crowded House, looks like Meehan is going to persist and to me he didn’t stay so I think he would be wasting his time.
Think only John Oxx can stop O’Brien at Epsom.
Derby Days ad slogan should be "When The Curragh comes to Epsom."
Please can this finally lay to rest the annual "Ballydoyle horses are out of form in April/May – they have no good three year olds" rant that comes about every year early in the season.
It is impossible to dismiss a Ballydoyle colt now after its first or even second run of the season.
I’m not saying he will improve simply because he is the brother of High Chaparral Bulwark, but it opens up the possibility he will improve for the trip. He has only had 4 races in his career and I would take a view after an impressive victory in a prolific Derby trial he can improve again given the Derby is his target. I believe he is good value at 10/1 for the Derby as it stands simply.
Well Internationaldebut’s mare was related to some speedier types and won over 7f herself at 3, he has shown he has pace for a shorter trip and it’s all there to see in his profile he couldn’t cut the mustard at 10f. I Believe Internationaldebut is very versatile in trip between 6f and a 8f, strongly expected 5f to be too short but he got home off a very strong pace.
Sadlers Well’s ala Darshaan cross are bred with one race in mind, Black Bear Island is improving and has the pedigree to look good on a Derby runners CV
Also, just want to point out that thats 2 out of 2 for O’Brien runners in France when returning to the UK.
Golden Sword ran in a Group race in France this year, came back, won. Same goes for Black Bear Island.
Westphalia to do the same in the Irish 2000?
if Crowded House wins another group 1 i’ll pack in gambling.
Really? Because if they drop him back to a mile he’s possibly quite capable of doing so, surely?
if Crowded House wins another group 1 i’ll pack in gambling.
Really? Because if they drop him back to a mile he’s possibly quite capable of doing so, surely?
imo if he’d have been a miler they’d have run him in the guineas. i had a sneaky feeling that the racing post trophy was the worst one i’v seen. wouldn’t be the first time today i’v been wrong like.
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I’ve no idea what was wrong with Crowded House, but I’d bet good money his problem wasn’t stamina. To all intents and purposes, he was beaten fully 2f from home.
Is there only me who thinks Coolmore knew exactly what they were doing today, when they let their apparent first string make the pace for their real hope?
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Just had the worst 2 days punting I can remember for a long time and 75% of my tank has gone in 2 days….geez I hate the flat
I don’t know if I should be commenting with a run lik that
Anyway once again AOB showed us not to take anything you see or read at face value. More than a few people on here fancied Black Bear Island for the Derby when he won at Naas but most negleted him here, after his flop, asssuming Murtagh’s mount was the better of the two.
Now all the talk is for Fame and Glory but no matter what anyone says Murtagh seems very keen on Rip Van Winkle. What was it he said before the guineas "You’llsee the real RVW today". As it turned out he ran a good race but like a horse who needs further.
Who knows how he has come on for that run and as much as it looks like F and G is their main hope with this lot you couldn’t be sure of anything.
The commentators on RUK reckon because they all finished in a bunch we haven’t seen the Derby winner.
One horse who ran a cracking trial was Sans Frontieres. I dind’t think he was given too hard a ride and was only starting to get going when the race was over. I think only a fool could rule him out of the Derby over an extra 2 furlongs.
Very disappointed in Kite Wood who was never gong that well. He looks a totally different horse this year to last, sort of weirdly out of proportion. Wouldn’t surprise me if he improves bundles for that run but you couldn’t give him a prayer in the Derby.
Crowded House? Just couldn’t get really enthusiastic about him again after Meehan took him out of the Guineas. Someone said he was never going to run butI say that’s BS. Truly class horses, some great Derby winners have won or run in both and you don’t not run a horse who showed speed like he did in the Racing Post. I reckon Meehan, as I said before has been on a wing and a prayer with this horse, and knew in his heart of hearts he wasn’t good enough.
I backed the horse but mainly because nothing else in the race was outstanding. I think many others were in the same frame of mind.
Glass Harmonium was one of my horses to follow when I said he would win races this season without setting the world on fire. He looks an excellent prospect and SS must be over the moon with that run.
I’m not up for taking a short price on Fame and Glory as I have doubts about him.
Sea the Stars has asmuch if not more class but might not stay.
Black Bear Island may not win the Derby, in fact I would say he has no chance but I wouldn’t put ayone of backing Sans Frontieres.
The trainer’s horses havent been running great so we maybe haven’t seen the best of this horse. 25/1-20’s will do for me.
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Thought Sans Frontieres ran a blinder; can’t see them not running him in the Derby after that.
Agreed mate, ran a blinder, hope you backing him too……..hate going down alone
Sans Frontieres is indeed the one to take out the race.
Ran on very well near the finish and looked like he may have a bit more pace over the extra 2f than Freemantle and Black Bear Island from first viewing.
One negative is that theres no money (other than at 100/1) queing up for him on Betfair. Have rumours emerged that he might not run?
You might be right Reet but I thought the Dante was approached by Ballydoyle in much the same way as the Chester Vase, or even the Derrinstown to some extent.
That is, one contender made a decent pace whilst another sat out the back to cover the options and for the stable to learn as much as possible.
Their was a lot of lazy thinking surrounding the running of Golden Sword at Chester, who is still being referred to as a pacemaker in some quarters, despite the fact he had his own pacemaker in the Prix Noailles.
My view, fwiw, is they may have had an idea of the ranking but rode the race to find out.Connections don’t seem certain to run him, but at least he’s entered for it. I just love this horse, he is all heart and I think he’s going to be a bit special. I backed him at 33/1 yesterday for the Derby, so I hope he runs. Perhaps a bit of good luck for Sir Robert…..
Timewise this Dante wasn’t setting the world alight.
Motivator SFT 2’16
Septimus SFT 2’17
Authorized GD-SFT 2’11
Tartan Bearer – GD-FM 2’09
Black Bear Island GD-FM 2’11The best Derby Trial by far has been Fame and Glory excluding obviously the 2000 Guineas, there should be no doubts really about Fame And Glory he surely must be guranteed a place at best, with him being Coolmores only Montjeu in the race probably, they are not going to mess this fellow around one would think.
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