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Crowded House is a horse I have never really been convinced by, IMO he was just the right sort of horse on the day in the RPT as he was a classy 2yo 7f performer in a 2yo 1 mile race on better ground conditions than usual which panned out to suit a classy 2yo 7f performer, and his turn of foot far outweighed the abilities of the more regular sort of RPT horses on the day. Much in the same way as Fantasia’s Nell Gwyn performance was over exagerated by the type of horse she was against the type of horse she was up against relative to the pace of the race.
Or alternatively; you could see him as a high class middle distance horse – much as his form, his speed figures, his breeding, and his placing suggest – that had the class to drop back to 7f for a very lucrative prize, and only give best to 1 horse, himself a subsequent breeders cup winner.
- Total Posts 17716
Fist
AP against SP – is Crowded House at all unlikely to run?
I’m sure there were great white hopes against Authorized and Motivator too, but similarly, none had anything like the credentials. Unless there is a truly exceptional horse in the race (unlikely), the only thing to beat him will be the mafia buggering up the pace (again unlikely in what is only a trial).
6/4 may look exceedingly generous, come Thursday morning.Wouldn’t have thought so but once the bookies know for sure what’s running prices will change.
If those 10 that Colin mentions are the runners I’m afraid you’re a mile of the mark with Motivator. Honestly Reet I have the race right in front of me it was a shocking afair. Even the Derby Motivator won was sub standard to say the least, with not 1 of the first 6 winning again that season.
I have a feeling whatever wins this wins the Derby but I am not confident it will be Crowded House. Great if he does though.
He certainly looked like a flying machine in the Racing Post but in his previous race he never. It could very well be the horse was flattered that day.
It seemed strange to me at the time that a horse with such a great turn of foot missed the Guineas and that his owner agreed to it.
One race doesn’t make a champion and Delegator must have been kickin his ass at home for then not to run him. If he was and iste better horse then Crowded House has an awful lot to find to win the Derby.
Of course it could be the horse wasn’t ready but. He may be a better horse at this trip but I don’t buy that the distance wouldn’t have suited him in the guineas. Newmarket is way stiffer than Donny that’s for sure and with that turn of foot I would have ran him.
Thats why I think the price isn’t great and backed 2 in the race. There’s a few answered questions there and the only place they can be resolved is on the racecourse
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Crowded House is a horse I have never really been convinced by, IMO he was just the right sort of horse on the day in the RPT as he was a classy 2yo 7f performer in a 2yo 1 mile race on better ground conditions than usual which panned out to suit a classy 2yo 7f performer, and his turn of foot far outweighed the abilities of the more regular sort of RPT horses on the day. Much in the same way as Fantasia’s Nell Gwyn performance was over exagerated by the type of horse she was against the type of horse she was up against relative to the pace of the race.
Or alternatively; you could see him as a high class middle distance horse – much as his form, his speed figures, his breeding, and his placing suggest – that had the class to drop back to 7f for a very lucrative prize, and only give best to 1 horse, himself a subsequent breeders cup winner.
Dont get me wrong reet, Crowded House is no muppet by any standards. But sometimes a horses performance is over accentuated because of the style of the opposition and that is the sort of performance his RPT win was for me. His RPT was more like that of Ibn Khaldun IMO than the likes of Authorized, Motivator and High Chaparral who all won impressively on much heavier underfoot conditions.
IMO it would be foolish to write of a horse like CH alltogether as he clearlyhas ability, however at the same time I think there are some very classy looking derby sorts in contention this year (for the Derby rather than the Dante, Im refering too), and with Crowded House very much looking like IMO like he has been priced too short, on a performance that didnt really win me over, I’ve been keen to take him on for epsom as think there will be better ones on the day.
After watching Fame and Glory doing what he done on sunday with such ease, against some fairly decent yardsticks, he is the one to beat at epsom IMO, because he is crying out for the extra distance and I think AOB will set the race up for him with pace setters. The presence of Fame And Glory however and AOBs style of running horses in races like this mean that you can tell from some time back that there will be a decent pace at epsom this year.
The race conditions of fast pace at 1m4f round epsom on good ground are IMO, however, a million miles away from the conditions of Crowded House’s RPT victory, and unless he does something very impressive in the dante, with a bit more cut underfoot, I’d still be keen to oppose him at epsom. IMO, which may well be wrong he looked, when winning the RPT, like the sort of horse who would be best at 1m2f on a quicker surface, and so for me he doesnt have the sort of profile I would be looking for on the racing conditions I expect on the day.
I am with Sans Frontieres in the Dante, merely as I believe he will be better priced with a similar sort of chance to that of Crowded House.
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Fist
I never mentioned the Derby?
Hardly surprising that he missed the Guineas, as he was thought of as a middle distance horse from early last season.
Would also argue that Newmarket isn’t "way stiffer than Doncaster", they’re both straight miles, and standard times would show the reverse to be the case. Notwithstanding Crowded House’s "great turn of foot" came at the end of a race run at a strong pace, on good ground, over what is a searching test for a 2yo, and invariably won by horses better at further than 1m as 3yo’s (Have a look how many Leger winners won or placed in the race).
7f horse he most definitely is not, and to oppose him on his RP Trophy form may be folly enough, let alone ignore the likely improvement for the distance of the Dante.Black Bear Island runs eh… Interesting
Very, but unfortunately Johnny has deserted him!
Black Bear Island runs eh… Interesting
Very, but unfortunately Johnny has deserted him!
That doesnt always mean everything.
Frozen Fire in the Irish Derby, Moonstone in the Epsom Oaks
Freemantle must be going exceptionally well at home for Johnny to desert BBI though.
True enough Halfway, i still cant understand why Johnny went to France
to ride Westphalia when he could have ridden this years Derby winner in
Ireland,is it because Johhny thinks Fame and Glory wont win the Derby!
As i do!Sky Bet have opened a market for a horse to do the Dante/Derby double…
Crowded House 10/1
Kite Wood, Freemantle 40/1
Native Ruler, Neeham, Sans Frontieres 80/1
Black Bear Island 100/1- Total Posts 17716
True enough Halfway, i still cant understand why Johnny went to France
to ride Westphalia when he could have ridden this years Derby winner in
Ireland,is it because Johhny thinks Fame and Glory wont win the Derby!
As i do!No !
It’s because his responsibilty is to ride gp1 winners, as is his stable’s to train them. Trials will almost always be secondary.True enough Halfway, i still cant understand why Johnny went to France
to ride Westphalia when he could have ridden this years Derby winner in
Ireland,is it because Johhny thinks Fame and Glory wont win the Derby!
As i do!No !
It’s because his responsibilty is to ride gp1 winners, as is his stable’s to train them. Trials will almost always be secondary.Took the words out of my mouth, Reet.
Group 1’s are indeed the priority
- Total Posts 17716
hth
Given the recent record of short-priced favs winning both races, there’d be worse 10/1 shots than Crowded House to do the double.
hth
Given the recent record of short-priced favs winning both races, there’d be worse 10/1 shots than Crowded House to do the double.
I think youre right, Reet.
As odd as it sounds I think Crowded House needs to win the Dante on Thursday more than any of the other runners. For Crowded House not to win I have a feeling Meehan and connections would be extremley disappointed. Despite the fact this is one of the hottest Dantes for a while, Crowded House is supposed to be one of the next best things and a genuine front rank Derby contender.
If he doesnt win/run very well, he’ll drift like a barge on the exchanges for the Derby.
I’m going to top up with those 10’s. The last time I did a ‘top up’ was on New Approach (albeit on the day 10mins before the off). Lets hope lightning strikes twice
my points rating
136 crowded house
132 monitor closely
131 nehaam
131 redwood
126 kite wood
125 black bear island
119 freemantle
116 sans frontieres
113 native ruler
109 glass harmoniumwill back crowded house to win
and monitor closely ewTheres a couple of negatives about Freemantle for me tomorrow.
1) The horse took 3 attempts to break his maiden albeit over Signal Fire who through various lines has franked the form quite well.
2) Murtagh hasnt won on him in 2 attempts. It took Mr Levey to break this horses’ maiden tag.
3) He’s never been seen in the public eye on firm or good-to-firm ground.
4) I
STILL
think Black Bear Island is the better Coolmore Derby horse out of the two.
Sans Frontieres will frank the form with Glass Harmonium tomorrow. With Kinane on board and the good reports coming out of Noseda’s yard about this one he could go quite close.
Kite Wood, as Suroor said today, really could be anything. How has Kite Wood taking the transition to the Godolphin stable?
Nehaam and Monitor Closely are too far apart in the betting considering there was only a head between them LTO. Rockhampton was behind that day and realistically probably should have won. He looked to be going superbly in the final part of the race!
For me, it’ll be mainly a watching race with a small punt on Black Bear Island and Sans Frontieres. Crowded House, as I said in the Derby thread, needs to win this and probably should win this if he really is as good as half of the racing world believes.
7/4 on Crowded House for the Dante would look like buying money after the race but not worth the risk in what is a very competitive race.
Could Crowded House be our new Derby favourite at 14:45? Will he be shorter than the 7/4 on offer for the Dante?
Time will tell!
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