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.
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2yo races..3yo races…none of those has any place in making standards..if you do use them..your standards are pap.
I can see the point of your suggestion, EC, but the above comment seems to presume that either younger horse races cannot produce truly run races in the way that older horse races do, or that you cannot or will not adjust younger horse times for weight carried (it would not be necessary to factor in weight-for-age if you did not want to) and ability shown. That I would not agree with.
Interesting discussion peeps
<br>Just Dust is overpriced imo if able to repeat Goodwood run
As I’ve said, I don’t know exactly how RP get their standard. I imagine their method has been published in the Weekender over the past year, but I haven’t read it for ages.
Here’s how I would do it.
I would look back over the past five seasons at races with ‘good’ in the going description. For each distance, I would identify the best twenty times and standardise these times using the method explained in my earlier post. I would then look through those races that produced the lowest computed standard times and see if I thought they were reliable races – using my own judgement. I would expect good quality competitive handicaps to account for most of the better times.
I would then try to fit the times together, given the topography of the course, to see if there were any anomalies or things that didn’t look right. If I was satisfied, I would be happy to go with this time as my standard for the course and distance.
EC
i’m just a little worried about the stiff 7f, hence my not saying it’ll win and i’m on at 5.0 ;)
I’ve got Gosden horse as a place lay btw
(Edited by empty wallet at 6:32 pm on Aug. 11, 2006)
Quote: from EC on 6:49 pm on Aug. 11, 2006[br] Tobosa stayed,,Just Dust didn’t
<br>Yep
(Edited by empty wallet at 6:58 pm on Aug. 11, 2006)
EC, do you adjust for the specific apparent ability the horses have shown in these historical races, or are you guided by class pars?
I have been away racing today and missed must of the follow up to my post. I can produce any set of times from the data I have and will do some more on this in the morning. For the Goodwood 5,6 & 7 furlong tracks, I ‘ll show the figures based on top 10 or 20 times, do same with handicaps for mature horses only and also do a split by class.
I’m not sure of the value of using SD’s. Can this be done using the SD function in Excel with the full range of times for a distance?
I don’t know whether you can do SD sets on Excel. I’d appreciate it if you could point me to where I can find out for myself.
The thing about SD sets is that if you get one set of adjusted times of, say:
60.00, 60.10, 60.20, 61.00, 62.00 etc (skewed)
And another of:
60.00, 60.50, 61.00, 61.50, 62.00 etc (normal)
I suspect they should be dealt with by means other than simple medians or means and SD sets do this.
But I learnt this second hand from a renowned mathematician and punter and did not devise it myself.
As mentioned earlier, I think using ball-park figures and then fine-tuning them until they satisfy you is a valid approach.
Click Function button ( Big F at top, between the Ascending buttons and that funny E thingy :biggrin:) Pru, it’s in there, STDEVP etc
(Edited by empty wallet at 10:17 pm on Aug. 11, 2006)
Armigerant ran quite a good time to chase home Strategic Prince in the July Stakes. Wouldn’t be the first H=Johnston horse to bounce back from a poor run.
Would rather back that or Eddie Jock than the fav.
EC
Shergar Cup day is not good for the punter, but FWIW i thought Armigerant was worth giving another chance to here
Nice one EC
That looked a decent performance and franks Just Dust form nicely
<br>Johnston horse disappointing again, maybe another CaV Okay
(Edited by empty wallet at 2:10 pm on Aug. 12, 2006)
Eddie Jock was indeed a good result. :biggrin:
Just Dust would have been even better, and initially I was disappointed that he wasn’t far clear of the rest last night. Do the rest of you make that – last night’s Newmarket nursery – another strong race on time, however?
Nice one Pru – Aftertimer :biggrin:
<br>I thought JD didn’t quite get home over the stiff 7f, but still performed well clockwise, and would really fancy him on a less testing track
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