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This could’ve been an absolute cracker of a race so it’s a shame to see many at the top of the market come out of the race. However, a group 1 on the card is a nice addition from last year.
With my old favourite Hawkbill (who I backed last week when he won and in the Eclipse too) not running, the only three I’m interested in is Highland Reel who I feel will cope with Epsom. Journey who I had last year in the mares race and, for me, was one of the performers of 2016. Lastly, US army ranger ran a good race at the track last season in the Derby and could be of interest.
Not sure at the minute tbh
I asked on the Oaks thread so might as well ask here… does anyone know if you can pay on the gate Friday? I went last year but was more prepared. Decided today I fancy going along Friday. I love Epsom.
So Hawkbill is to run. Suprisednat that. Good for the race though.
Anyway, I’m on Journey at 9/2
It’s amazing how often you seem to tip one up and they come down in price
Well, it might not only be his money, as he obviously has many followers here.
He claims his tips to be just his opinion, but nevertheless he has some responsibility and therefore he should really be more cautious with formulations like “Senga my French horse of the year”.
But of course this is only MY opinion..It’s amazing how often you seem to tip one up and they come down in price
Well, it might not only be his money, as he obviously has many followers here.
He claims his tips to be just his opinion, but nevertheless he has some responsibility and therefore he should really be more cautious with formulations like “Senga my French horse of the year”.
But of course this is only MY opinion..Horses don’t always run to form Hein. Monroe Bay ran like a drain in the Prix Saint Alary, running to only a mark of 56. She was stone last that day, beaten 26 lengths by Sobetsu, having come into the race rated 104. Yet, only two weeks later she comes back out on better ground, albeit in lesser company, and she wins. This time she is given as running to 102, much more like her previous form.
Monroe Bay is also trained by Pascal Bary and her bad run came just one day after Senga’s poor effort. Maybe both fillies just hated the very soft ground. I know that Senga’s team felt she had come on from her seasonal debut win and they were gutted. This was my biggest bet for four years and I can assure you they were not half as gutted as I was.
This has been a frustrating season for me. I have had a few non-runners for no apparent reason, when jockeys have been booked at the five day stage. I have also had some bloody awful runs from my selections. Psychedelic Funk ran two and a half stone below form in a penalty kick race before then running to much nearer his mark when second to Caravaggio. Brando managed to run to 98 lbs short of his mark last time, on a measly 17 rating WTF?
I backed Abdon last week at 6/1, he went in to 11/4 and promptly ran 18 lbs below his Racing Post rating.
I had Autocratic at good odds at Newmarket, only for him to run 16 lbs below his mark. He then came out and won the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown, running 23 lbs better than he had done at Newmarket.
Sometimes these horses just don’t run to form. That is why I try to grab value prices, so that it makes up for the times when they disappoint or get pulled out.
I don’t bet much money these days. My days of three figure bets are long gone.
I can’t be expected to take responsibility for any horse I mention here. It ultimately lies with the individual as to what they want to back.
I thought Journey might be value here at 9/1 and that is just my opinion. I will be disappointed if she can’t beat Idaho but Highland Reel at his best will be tough to crack.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sorry to pry Steve, was just making an observation that you seem to be a very skilled punter and not making best use of that would be a pity
Going for FRONTIERSMAN to win this, around 10/1 now but managed 16’s last week.
This talented son of Ouija Board will have the ground in his favour and he won his last race at Newmarket very readily. The step up in class should not bother him but I’m expecting to see HAWKBILL make the lead again so he mustn’t let him get too far ahead. I’ve backed him every race he’s run so far do so he owes me nothing would love to see him win a Group race over the same course and distance as his mum.
FRONTIERSMAN – WIN
Hawkbill – Each Way
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I can’t be expected to take responsibility for any horse I mention here.
Of course Steve, everybody is responsible for himself.
I was just particularly disappointed by Senga’s run, because you described her as so outstanding and I believed you, but I can’t blame you for that.
I still fancy your work and analysis, and of course there are good and bad days for everyone..It’s amazing how often you seem to tip one up and they come down in price
In fairness, I can verify that Journey was indeed 9/1 when he tipped her.
I had checked the market myself when I saw the thread.
Journey at 9/1 is a beautiful price. I only looked at this race last night and it’s tough to come to a solid conclusion on what will happen.
Highland Reel is a bit short for me considering his poor effort last time. He finished too far back even if it was on unsuitable ground. He was only a head behind Dartmouth in the hardwicke on good to soft last year so I think he should have done a bit better in Dubai.I’d prefer it if Journey had good ground tomorrow and for it not to firm up too much but this weather may just scupper that. I really like her though and will have a nibble at 4/1. She has shown that she could settle in her races now and that last performance was breathtaking, the way she changed gear when tracking the leader was a sight to behold.
Idaho could be a big improver this year and I rate him as the main danger. Being a brother to Highland Reel it wouldn’t surprise me to see the same level of improvement that HR showed from 3-4. Good to firm will really suit as well.
Of the rest, Frontiersman was impressive last time but I can’t say he beat much and his effort previous to that wouldn’t suggest to me that he was ready for group 1 success just yet and Hawkbill wants soft ground, obviously.
US Army Ranger lacks a bit of class, the improving Prize Money needs to improve again and the other 3 in the race shouldn’t be a bother.
I’d say 25 each way is a fair enough bet on Journey at 4/1. Gosden has slightly played her down by saying she’ll come on for the run but this is a winnable group 1 and he hasn’t won the coronation yet so I’d suggest he would have her as spot on as can be……hopefully
It’s amazing how often you seem to tip one up and they come down in price
In fairness, I can verify that Journey was indeed 9/1 when he tipped her.
I had checked the market myself when I saw the thread.
No I wasn’t doubting it, I was just saying it’s amazing how often he hits the nail on the head
I’m like the boy who cried wolf with everyone expecting me to be sarcastic
Backed US Army Ranger for this E/W at 14’s earlier this afternoon, and seems to be a bit of money around for him tonight.
Had a couple of runs this year, and his form with Idaho over C&D in last years Derby gives him a decent shout at 3 x the price, if coming back to that form. The fact they have kept him in training gives some encouragement all might not be lost quite yet.
Aiden O’Brien’s runners will be late on course https://www.racingpost.com/news/epsom-friday-preview/oaks-favourite-rhododendron-among-those-delayed-getting-to-epsom/287934
Best Wishes
SilkA tactical masterclass from Moore or farcical from his rivals? A bit of both probably but what a horse Highland Reel is when he gets his preferred conditions, the writing was on the wall from a long way out.
The runner up has done remarkedly well considering he was in a hopeless position so far back and pretty much unrideable up the straight – but as for the other jockeys it was just a case of fool me once shame on you, fool me 20 times shame on me….
Hawksbill I think may have taken him on more if it was at 10F but what little he did do ultimately cost him as he went from looking the likely winner 2F out to not really getting home and only just managing to keep third by a quickly diminishing margin.
Feel a bit sorry for HR as I don’t think he will ever get the credit he deserves for winning his races as the first thing people will say is ‘oh but he got an easy lead out front’
As I said, getting the price is the easy part.
I was very disappointed by Journey today, she just never looked fast enough to cope with the pace Highland Reel was going. The time was fast and she never lived up to the money that followed her into the race.
In contrast Highland Reel was weak but he hosed up. He’s a damn good horse on his day.
Idaho was an alarming drifter. His performance and that of US Army Ranger suggest last year’s Derby was more like the bollocks I said it was at the time, than I was given credit for stating.
Poor show from Journey, I may give her another chance though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
On paper it was set to be a great race but unfortunately it wasnt as close as id hoped it would be.
I was put off by HR’s initial price but then when it drifted out to 5/2 i was tempted. Id seen him live in Dubai both times and neither race he ran well. I therefore decided to leave it.
When Hawkbill went to challenge I thought he was toast but he pulled away nicely. Difficult to knock a horse whos won in 3 different countries!
Frontiersman ran on really well and Hawkbill looked like 10f was all he wanted.
As for those on Journey, well you didnt really get value for your money and I did hear that she has never won on her reappearance in the last 3 years.
Clearly not what you want to hear now but probably worth sticking by for the time being.Congratulations those who got HR at 5/2 and bigger. Bash those bookies!
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