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It’s not looking good for this to go ahead. I really will be gutted if it doesn’t.
I’ve had a right cut at Bluesea Cracker and I was getting more confident by the day.
Please let it be on…
Yep, agree about Bluesea Cracker. Did me a huge favour last spring. She stays all day and she’ll go in a bog, if the race goes ahead she must have a massive chance.
I like the look of the Venetia Williams trained
Summery Justice
in the Welsh National, currently 20/1 with Hills looks decent E/W value.
He looks a thorough stayer to me and may improve again for the longer trip, hope the meeting beats the weather, not looking encouraging though.
Nobody fancy Dance Island?
Been looking at the pedigree – lots of 4 mile plus stamina evident, Brush Aside on dam side for starters.
Beat Dream Alliance at Chepstow last year – Ok it was a hurdle race. Recent defeat to King Fontaine who is now unbeaten four straight reads well.
Notre Pere would also seem an each way prospect – I feel an exacta bet may be on.I like Dance Island.
I backed him last time beaten by King Fontaine. Segal really pissed me off when he knocked him from 33s to 16s before I even looked at the race. I got the 16s that day though and think he’ll be much better over a trip like this or maybe further. Hes a total plugger.
Royal Rosa appears to have been nibbled at, though 33s is still available.
He’s an interesting horse, in that he’s only won one chase, his last win, way back in December 2006 – though he had won a number of races earlier in fairly quick succession, including a Grade 1 bumper at Punchestown, and a Grade 2 hurdle at Haydock, beating Fundamentalist.
What’s more he appears to be running into some kind of form, being beaten at Aintree by Hullo Bud in the Bechers Handicap Chase, in receipt of 5 lbs, though, himself, 3 lbs out of the handicap. He’d been hampered early on, and it looks as if he needs further.
But the thing is, he is beautifully bred, cost Andrea and Graham Wylie 340,000 guineas in 2003, after his last hurdle win, and is way down in the weights on 132 – 20 lbs lower than in his hurdling pomp. He’s on 10.2.
And I expect they really would like some kind of significant return on their dough. If his health is not too dodgy, maybe this will be their opportunity. Though I expect they’ll survive if he loses.
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Wrote a nice summary and of course this damn site logged me out when I tried to post it
In short Imoncloudnine 25/1 ew S.J. is an addition to my original selcetion Exmoor Ranger.
No, Ballyfitz seems well-handicapped, Venture2c. But I’ve done so many already…. Now, I’d like to do Bfz and the first 2 favs!!! I have a horrible feeling one of the last 2 mentioned are going to stymie my bets.
After an eye-catching effort over timber on his last visit to a racecourse, it’s no surprise to see that support for
Synchronised
has been gathering strong momentum.
A course win over Giles Cross in December 2009 was followed three months later with a gruelling success in the Midlands National over four miles-two.
There’s a lot to like about the profile of the horse. Effectively a 7YO on the original date for this contest, this race has been dominated in recent years by younger horses, with five of the last six renewals going the way of either a 6YO or 7YO. In fact, Bindaree was the last 9YO to win the contest back in 2003.
The one negative about the Jonjo O’Neill-trained representative is his weight. Due to carry 11st6lb, no horse has carried that burden to success since Master Oats in 1994, who would progress to Cheltenham Gold Cup glory later that season. Only four horse have carried more than 11st to success in the last 20 years, all of them boasting a touch of class – Carvill’s Hill, Master Oats, Halcon Genelardais and Notre Pere.
I’m not convinced Synchronised has the ability to defy such a burden, but it would be a surprise if he wasn’t on the premises during the latter stages of the contest.
Watamu Bay
represents Paul Nicholls, who claimed the race in 2003 and 2004 with Silver Birch and L’Adventure, respectively. Back-to-back wins at Exeter followed a cracking effort on his chasing debut behind Balthazar King at this track. He jumped right on occasions that day, and that has to be a worry. He is also set to carry 11st3lb which, as I explained earlier, is a mighty obstacle to overcome.
He is another with an attractive profile and connections entitle him to respect. He is open to plenty of improvement and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he developed into a leading ’Whitbread’ horse at the end of the season, but the aforementioned negatives are a worry on this occasion.
Summery Justice
has been considered by many as the ‘dark horse’ of the race and I’m not going to challenge that belief. A 6YO on the original date for this contest, he is open to any amount of improvement after a mere seven visits to the track, has an attractive weight and his trainer knows the type required to win this race.
The form of his Bangor-on-dee success looks impressive, with the second, third and fourth all tasting victory in the near future. The second, Buffalo Bob, would follow-up his success with a solid fourth in a hot Cheltenham handicap on New Years Day, whilst Minella Boys would go on to claim the Sussex National.
My main worry is that he is yet to register solid efforts in succession and his victories thus far have come around sharp tracks.
Dance Island
and
Maktu
are both well fancied and capable of being in the mix. They crossed swords with the talented King Fontaine on their latest visits to the track, both contests held over three miles around Haydock. Dance Island gave 10lb and went down by 11L, while Maktu gave 5lb and was defeated just a head. Maktu has the beating of Dance Island on that line of form and should strip fitter for that effort.
Both should have no problems handling the conditions and boast course form.
Giles Cross
is an interesting contender. He met both Synchronised and Maktu at this venue just over a year ago and finished a respectable second behind the J P McManus horse, with Maktu 8L back in third. He was in receipt of 1lb from Synchronised that day and went down by just over 4L. He is set to be 15lb better off with that rival and 4lb with Maktu, respectively, on Saturday.
He was a well beaten third in the Midlands National behind Synchronised, but that does not accurately reflect the winners superiority. Giles Cross failed to stay the distance that day, after being prominent for much of the race, and will be much happier over this trip.
Two of his three victories have come on heavy ground and his form figures at Chepstow read 12F1. He is a sound jumper, resolute galloper and represents solid each way value at a best priced 25-1.
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I tend to agree with you on Synchronised Bos
Horses that have carried between 11st5lbs and 11st9lbs were all top class before carrying big weights to victory.
Righthand Man was top already a top class stayer and one of the best horses in Michael Dickinson’s yard. Bonanza Boy was winning the race for the 3rd time,and Carvill’s Hill and Master Oats were already Gold Cup class.
Synchronised won the Midland Grand National on terrible ground nothing except him could raise a gallop on. The handicapper wasn’t too harsh on him because he’s beat nothing but if the ground is truly soft tomorrow he could find things much tougher against horses who can go on it.
What is in his favour is the race looks exceptionally poor but for sure the’ll be couple of low weights been laid out for this and it only takes one.
4/1 ? I think Ginger would have a field day on that price
Disappointed at some of the last minute defections. Hello Bud and Knowhere being my primary disappointments.
Glad Erics Charm is taking his chances. The trip should suit perfectly, but i see another Kilbeggan Blade in this one.
Royal Rosa will have my support. Trusted him well enough in the Becher and he didn’t let me down. Wanted more than 3, 2 and i reckon this trip will suit and hopefully won’t leave things too late.
Arbor Supreme seems to be a forgotten horse, given the attention paid to Synchronized. But i like the look of this one and could spring up a good run.
This race looked amazing when the entries were first announced and has gone downhill since. Shame, but still looking forward.
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As the guy above said, I think Royal Rosa is a good each-way bet in a race where winners are hard to pick.
For me anyway, 2 years ago I backed Mon Mome at Fav, shame I didn’t back him for the big one 4 months later.
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As
the guy above
said
That’s what my friends call me
lol
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Don’t think Hello Bud was ever an intended runner Peter. According to what Sam TD said in a recent interview I think they feel their chances at Aintree will be much better if he has a less exhausting build up this year.
The horse that seems to be attracting a fair bit of money that no one seems to fancy is Hobbs’s Dream Alliance. He has a lot of weight this time but is actually very well in with last years runner up. He also has that magical national form PPP so it appears Hobbs may have been taking lesson’s from Jonjo how to prepare a National winner
Looks wide open and if Royal Rosa can produce his best form on this ground he must have a squeak. Not a soft ground horse in the past but the older they get the more they appreciate some cut.
I noticed him myself at a huge 40/1 yesterday but thought he wasn’t going to run.
Can’t back everything you think has a chance but if I could he’d be on my list
Glad Erics Charm is taking his chances.
I notice he’s also engaged in the Handicap Chase at Sandown tomorrow and, considering his excellent record there, I’d say that would be where he runs.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
I like the look of
Theatre Dance
. He’s won at the course (off a mark of 134) and carries a feather weight tomorrow. It looks as though he may have been difficult to train but he has been campaigned this season as though being lined up for something (one run over hurdles and one run over inadequate trip). The booking of Timmy Murphy is obviously a big plus in a staying chase and the stable is in good form.
At the time of writing he’s 43/1 on Betfair which is too big to ignore.
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