Coral Cup 2018

[Flyers Nap]

2M 5F Grade three open handicap hurdle

One of the established handicap hurdles,run on day 2 of the festival.Reduced from 28 to 26 runners recently,7 of the last 8 winners have been double figure odds.
Wealth of information at our disposal,if required,to find that elusive horse.

17/18 won class 3 or above
13/16 less than 10 hurdle runs
13/14 won current season
14/16 1 handicap win or less
3/16 ran prev festival
12/12 not won graded race
8/15 FR bred (20% runners)
9/14 won LTO (20% runners)
11/14 5-7yr old
8/8 4 runs max current season
9/12 second season hurdlers
13/14 minimum 32 break

Just the 119 entries…..Thomas Campbell 155 heads the weights for the home team,with the Irish horses being assessed as we speak,with the addition of a little “Travel Tax” no doubt.

Bottom weight ranged between 139-129 last 5 yrs,the trend has been for the handicap to be more compressed than what we saw for a long time,those trainers with horses at the top of the weights have been known to use this to their advantage,not to be under estimated.

Coup De Pinceau 135…. Nicholls yard,french bred,lightly raced,sighter track nov 2017,drying ground may well see this horse improve on a lowly looking mark.

Diese Des Bieffes 137…..Henderson yard,french bred,just the one handicap run behind stablemate at kempton,a race worthy of a few replays,looking at the placed horses and how they have fared.Decent novice form on good ground,slight worry been kept to right handed tracks,entered m pipe also.

Some fairly strong stats that give us insight into the type of horse we are looking for,just a couple above that are of interest this far out,both may be on the borderline of getting a run.

Will know more once weights released in a couple days.

Whatever your approach,thoughts and opinions encouraged,nothing better than to see someone nail the winner of this,bragging rights assured for the full twelve months

[homersimpson]

Cheers FN any help is grateful. It must be the only Festival race I haven’t had the winner of. Determined to put that right in the not too distant future.

[Venture to Cognac]

Good stuff Flyers, very helpful them stats.

I’ll give them a close look for my day of the race bets, but already in a couple each way.

Blow by Blow
Flaxen Flare

Both 33’s ew NRNB BOG

Plenty more catch the eye, the likes of….

Delta Work
Oscar Knight
Minds Eye
King House Hall
Who Dares Wins
Midnight Tour

….but no rush, and any more will probably be after Final Decs

[Flyers Nap]

Evening both……With you Homer on the negative equity bit,worst record in any of the handicaps starts with this race,hard to reason why,every year the Nap dots up on tuesday evening

Well vtc….was expecting at least one of those unexposed 13 yr olds,first time blinkers,that you keep pulling out most weekends,the ones that arrive on the open top bus as they have a free pass

Just 3 of the last 16 winners ran at a previous festival,that threw me straight away.
The french bred angle,and last time out winners also punching well above their weight.

Everything points to unexposed sort,shown its hand slightly,kept away from the bigger races,from either side sea,have about 40 that fit in nicely…..off for a lie down

[Lemons68]

Nice one Flyers, I will give those stats a look

[DBRDBR]

I don’t know of OK Corral goes here, but this should be the most likely option. I like him a lot, only beaten two lengths by Yorkhill at Punchestown. Then two years off, but he came back in good fashion.

[Ben_Bernanke]

Happy to see Le Breuil getting backed in, tempted to put more on him but the chance of soft ground is not ideal, then again don’t want to wait until the day in case he gets backed in even more……oh the perils of life.

[Jaymo74]

@Ben Bernanke

No probs with soft ground Ben. This horse just doesn’t want extreme ground (heavy or good/firm). Empty your piggy bank and load up on this fella NRNB as hes doubley declared.

[Ben_Bernanke]

While I agree I reckon the horse is better on good or gd/sft ground, having said that his impressive win last season was on soft wasn’t it? So you may well be right. I know he’s double entered but his odds for the Martin pipe have been bigger both with the books and on the exchange, it’s a sport of gambling and I’m a gambler though and through so will take the chance that he’s going coral cup, if I’m wrong oh well 😁

[Ben_Bernanke]

ALso le breuil was 20s on the exchange for the coral cup a couple of days ago and went into 15s when they released the hcap weights whereas his odds for the Martin pipe have stayed around 30s

[moehat]

Thanks FN; I do like me stats and when I have time like to do intricate little charts. Since racecaller.com closed down I’ve struggled to find the 10 year stats.

[Flyers Nap]

Very welcome Lemons/Moe,anyone find them useful I will stick a few more more up on the handicaps.

Theres a site on the handicap thread Moe,gaultstats,may be of use.

DBR/Ben….They both come into the “Could be anything category”,Le Breuil has been a talking horse for a while now,Pauling trains very close by,do wonder if his and Twisters get local money?Has he been entered somewhere else recently Ben?

Looked at the top 43 horses earlier,down to Karalee 140,just applying a few stats gave me 4 to look at.

Topofthegame
Sandsend
Ok Corral
Talkischeap

Of those I like the look of the King horse Talkischeap,however the trainer has multiple entries,half decent record in recent seasons.Topofthegame only entry,that Lanzarote form very strong,he will make fine chaser next year.

Early days,guesswork with entries/ground/weight…..quite happy to wait until 5 day decs, when we may have a little more info.

[Ben_Bernanke]

Yeah he has been but only because he hasn’t had the chance to show how good he really is, for me that Newbury performance last year was very impressive and he will (in my opinion) have improved a bundle since then, horse wasn’t right at aintree so I can excuse that run, then he ran a very solid race first time out this season jumping well enough but tiring late on as he wasn’t 100% fit but cruises through that race and if I remember right did a bad jump when tired either 1 or 2 out which made the losin margin bigger than it would have been. Then in the horses last race the ground was terrible and the horse just didn’t act on it but still travelled and jumped well enough but be ground really sapped his stamina and he got knackered in the final couple of furlongs. The horse has all the potential and has shown he has class, his mark of 139 (think he’s still on 139) really underestimated him, in my estimation he should be in the high 140s so has tons in hand (again only in my opinion).

[Ben_Bernanke]

Sorry can’t paste the article as im on my phone but have copied and pasted the link to it, according to oddschecker 80% or so of the bets on the coral cup in the last 11 hours have been on Le Breuil https://www.oddschecker.com/tips/horse-racing/cheltenham-festival/20180301-ben-paulings-horse-being-smashed-for-the-coral-cup

[Nausered]

Already backed Duc Des Genievres in this NRNB. Added Stowaway Magic today @ 33-1 NRNB. Nice recent come back run, on ground far to soft for him. He looked well. He should get in off 140, I’ve also backed him @ 33-1 NRNB for the Martin Pipe. I have a sneaking feeling he could run very well wherever he turns up, as long as the ground is not soft.

[Ben_Bernanke]

Good shout with those two

[Middle_Of_March]

I’m another who will be on Le Breuill if he goes here.

Pertempts sounds very tempting to them though

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