- This topic has 72 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
In fact the more dissenters the better!
The entire "argument" in a nutshell.
In a nutshell my Ar*e! How can it be in a nutshell when
EV = P (G)- P (L),is that telling me Forpadydeplasterer will win whatever race he runs in at Cheltenham?I can not speak for Rob TAPK but….
Eh?
Don’t understand your point, not a lot of your post makes any sense to me. Might help if it is divided up a little.
If you think i"m going through that lot again,you are mistaken Sir,like Rob says he does it his way i do it mine,as long as the end result is the same it doesn"t really matter,but never the twain shall meet,thats for sure!I wonder how Rob will come to the conclusion that Somersby will win the Arkle though,now that all the 25"s have gone!
Fist, you wouldn’t have the same on every 8/1 shot it would be dependent on the price you estimate it should be.
Using Formaths explanation of expected value, the kelly criterion is an effective money management system. Where in the Opera House example the EV value is 0.8, this would indicate you should attempt to win 80% of your capital according to kelly, so to a 10k bank your stake would be £1000, if you were getting 5/1 in the example the EV would be 0.2 and a stake of £400 would be placed.
Excellent post by Formath, though, this topic could just go round and round until another 5 months has passed
Did anyone who says they can’t see the point of this actually bother to watch the feature?
Excellent post by Formath, though, this topic could just go round and round until another 5 months has passed
That would be standard operating procedure for "Value" threads.
- Total Posts 17716
I can’t watch it as I don’t subscribe to RUK – rather annoying as I’m at home today and it is being repeated every hour – but I would hazard a guess that it is far more informative than this thread, becoming as it has another battle of egos rather than an exchange of ideas and approaches.
Is there any chance RUK will make it available on YouTube?
Is there any chance RUK will make it available on YouTube?
That would be against standard operating procedure for RUK footage.
Wow.
I’m genuinely surprised at this move. Presumably it’s fairly recent?
Fair balls to RUK, though it would have been delinquent of them not to eventually facilitate this, imo – too big a shop-window for the sport. Thanks for the nod, Pompete.
Can anyone connected with the channel enlighten us as to what prompted this change in heart? Was it a case of RUK wanting the content available all along, but wishing to exert control over it (hence their RUKTV1 thingymabob on YouTube)? Or was it reviewed and changed for other reasons?
No disrespect directed at you personally Rob, but what on earth do you achieve by doing it!?
Surely you have favourite horses that will bias your opinion?If i was to make a book on the Champion hurdle it would be something like this-. 4/1 Binocular, 11/2 Zaynar,6/1 Celestial Halo, 6/1 Go Native, 10/1 Solwhit, 12/1 Punjabi!
Nothing like the Bookmakers prices who go 4/1 Solwhit, 9/2 Zaynar, 5/1 Go Native, 8/1 Binocular, 10/1 Celestial Halo, 12/1 Punjabi.
So according to my opinion, i should be backing Binocular with the Bookmakers as he is the Value bet! No thanks! Then when i compare my prices with the Bookmakers i see i"m a mile out with Sowhit, perhaps i should be backing him then as he is far more fancied than i thought! No i will stick with Celestial Halo as i know given his ideal set of circumstances he will be bang there again as will Binocular and Punjabi!
TAPK,
You seem to be saying that you would make Binocular a 20% chance of winning (4/1) in one paragraph, and then saying in another that it is not value. This makes no sense to me. Either it is or it isn’t.
Your price of 4/1 is 9% different than 8/1 so yes, you should back it, if that is what you truly believe.
Likewise if you believe Celestial Halo is a true 6/1 shot, and can get 10/1 you could back him too. Although the difference between 6/1 and 10/1 is only just over 5% apposed to Binocular 9%; therefore Binocular is (according to your own opinion) the better bet. Some value backers will only bet on the best value, particularly in ante-post where there is a risk of a non-starter.(You’re effectively taking just over 4/1 that one or the other will win 11.1% (8/1) + 9.1% (10/1) = 20.2% (just over 4/1). So if either is a non-runner you will end up with a comparitively poor value bet even if the remaining horse shortens to around 5/1).
All tissues would do for me is cloud my judgement and i cant have that! Another thing whilst i"m thinking about it, what happens when you do your tissue? You make your selection, you back it at the price your tissue tells you is value and the bloody thing drifts like a barge before the race, do you have to do it all again and when you do another horse proves to be better value than the first what happens then? You thought your horse had a 20% chance of winning so you took the 5/1, its drifted to 10/1, its only got a 10% chance of winning now according to your tissue, do you back it again or would that be a contradiction to your tissue loyaltys? What about this one too-. you have done your tissue and you think your horse is good value at 5/1, you go to back it but its been cut to 7/2, Oh no its not value anymore, i cant back it, but it goes and wins at 3/1 what happens there? Whats up with just looking at the board price for any race that has been compiled by a Professional Odds compiler and saying yes Celestial Halo 10/1 Get on! If you know your horses the only time you need a tissue is when the bloody thing is pulled out of its intended target and your Ante-Post bets lost! I needed a boxful with Age of aquarius in the St Leger!
If you work out a horse has a 20% chance and it drifts you look to see if there was a reason for that drift; paddock-side, is it playing up and is it fit? If the trainer is out of form, it may be likely not to run to form. Sometimes I’d go in again and back it, sometimes not.
If with changing circumstances you now think another horse is value then yes I’d back that one too.
I don’t understand your assertion that it only has a 10% chance now, why 10%?
If I have missed a price then there is no point in backing it at a lower price than my tissue. There is no point in backing a 3/1 shot if I believe it has a 20% chance. As a level stakes 20% SR at 3/1 ends up with a loss.
There is nothing wrong with backing anything at 10/1 if you believe it has a better than 9% chance.
TAPK,
Hope you don’t mind, have separated some of your original post to make it easier for me to understand what you meant. So that I can try to answer some of your points.Value Is EverythingSir tipster, i very much appreciate you going to the trouble of dissecting one of my posts to clarify this particular situation but i was under the impression that if a horse had a 10% chance of winning a race,it had to be 10/1.likewise if your tissue says a horse has a 20% chance it must be 5/1,so if the horse drifts from your original idea that it is 5/1 to 10/1 then surely your opinion of it being a good bet has halved in its theoretical chances!Geez it still sounds too bloody complicated to me! What a stupid f*****g thread!
Sir tipster, i very much appreciate you going to the trouble of dissecting one of my posts to clarify this particular situation but i was under the impression that if a horse had a 10% chance of winning a race,it had to be 10/1.likewise if your tissue says a horse has a 20% chance it must be 5/1,so if the horse drifts from your original idea that it is 5/1 to 10/1 then surely your opinion of it being a good bet has halved in its theoretical chances!Geez it still sounds too bloody complicated to me! What a stupid f*****g thread!
No TAPK,
A true 4/1 (not 5/1) shot has a 20% chance of winning.
And a true 9/1 (not 10/1) shot has a 10% chance.That is why I could not understand.
Value Is EverythingPlease…….someone………make it stop.
Its given me a headache! but thanks again Sir Tipster for claryfying how sh*t my maths is!Grass i"m in the mood for a duel!
Mate you’re so dumb at times please don’t treat me the same way. Do you think every punter thinks like you?
It is a relief that not all punters think the way I do Fist, otherwise as Rob says, there will be less value to go around.
I gave an example. Where did I say every horse someone spots or jots down as there next bet will be 1/2?
You didn’t, but whatever price a horse is means there is an average percentage you need to win (given level stakes) a punter needs to win.
If the value punter is true to his word his stakes will be the same for every 8/1 shot he backs or he’s simply not playing the %’s and breaking his own rules. If he is going to do that he’d be as well tossing the lot in the bin would he not?
Think that question has been dealt with by others.
My Hurricane Fly could be Get Me Out Of Here at 5/1, or Khyber King at 20/1 or Deep Purple at 6/1 or Kauto Star at 8/11, my bets could vary from 1 pound to 5000 pounds. Not everything I back is the same price and I vary my stakes on how much I fancy them.As I said, each price has it’s own percentage you need to win. With level stakes a punter needs to win more than 16.67% of his 5/1 bets, 4.76% at 20/1 and so on. Each price is judged individually.
On the question of value: You preach about value but I fail to see you getting a price that doesn’t stand up. I must have a hundred posts where I have backed horses at ?/1 and by the next morning or later the same day he’s dropped dramatically. While some I have backed heavily not all the sudden changes in price are down to me. The prices drop because because others saw the value in taking an early price.
I don’t preach, neither does Formath (good post by the way), just give you the facts. If you don’t need them then carry on as you are Fist. If you have got value and a price has dropped, then that’s good isn’t it. We can trade bets until the cows come home, so see no point in doing that. Do assure you I have been known to get some exceptional value mtself.
Though it’s true, my recent record is not good, hoping that is temporary.
Your idea of value is tossing a dice and saying the law of averages say I must be right x amount of times as you clearly point out in your example.No, my idea of value is to study form, work out my prices and back the ones I believe are value.
Difference is when a Galaxy Rock 8/1 to 7/2 comes along I make a lot of dough but to you he’s just another 8/1 shot that the law of averages came up with.
As said, see no point in trading value bets.
Value Is Everything
Though it’s true, my recent record is not good, hoping that is temporary.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.