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I’m not sure it’s a race I want to get involved in from a punting perspective, DJ, but with Cape Tribulation likely to ensure a decent gallop (and Straw Bear probably there to take over if he doesn’t), I’m expecting Binocular to reverse the moody Fighting Fifth form with Go Native.
Starluck has a bit to prove, and whilst he probably is a stone shy of what Binocular can achieve, I don’t think he has anything like as much to find with Go Native. If I do play, it will probably be the Binocular/Starluck forecast.
Cape Tribulation didn’t set a sound gallop in the Relkeel, so I wouldn’t be sure he’ll go off hard at Kempton. I’m happy to back Go Native at 3.4 and will also place lay Starluck at 2.8. With the first 2 and Pepe Simo I think it’s a sound enough play.
Fair enough. I know you are warming to the Fighting Fifth form….I just can’t shake the feeling that it’s moody.
I’d like to ask all those that think Starluck is a good bet, what happened at Aintree?
Ground possibly?
I know he’s a bit to find on official ratings, but I see the horse as an improver who has trained on from last year. Judging by recent results the yards horses are in good nick too.
If either of the front two in the market don’t run up to their best (which is more than a possibility) then I think Starluck will be there waiting to pounce and take advantage.
I’m doing a Binocular/Starluck r/f/c…
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I’d like to ask all those that think Starluck is a good bet, what happened at Aintree? Wasn’t that the day he was going to confirm how much better he was than the result at Cheltenham?
For me his form is a stone or so below that of the first 2 in the betting and he’s too short and I still have reservations about what he’ll find off the bridle. He’s never yet won a race over jumps when he’s come off it.
I don’t think he’s a bridle horse David. The most likely answer to that one is he doesn’t stay.
Something that has concerned his trainer for some time. I think he actually said so when interviewed before the Cheltenham raceCantering at Cheltenham he gone to nothing in a matter of strides which is normally of a sign of horse running out of stamina. He looked to have the beating of Mr. Thriller until the last 100yds but the ground was very soft and that again would tax his stamina.
Aintree is often a graveyard for Cheltenham winners. Cast your mind back 2 years and I’m pretty sure of all the fancied horse who ran at the Festival only Tidal Bay won.
Everyone wants to win at Cheltenham and train their horses like marines to get them as fit as possible. They go there have a really hard race and although they seem fine they are good and run miles below form.
A few that do win at both meetings never get over it. He has but look at Tidal Bay.
All Tidal Bay knows is head down and run and he probably took so much out of himself at the two meetings, that’s the reason he has never won a decent race since. Plus he probably like his trainer isn’t that bright.
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TAPK laying £4250 at 3.25 introduced a liability of £9562.50 not £13812.50.
Well spotted Milbear0,bloody equivalent to 9/4,i shall do the Maths again,just gimme another 3hrs!Fist would never have spotted the obvious mistake?
I did it all again mate I never saw this post. I made the same mistake as you when I first started…..nice surprise when you look at your balance later though
If i play to the above figures Fist, my way, i have £2000 on at 9,that gives me £16000 profit if he wins,i can lay £4250 at 3.25 that would equal £13812.5,deduct that from £16000 and my profit becomes £2187.5 if he wins,if he loses i make a profit of £2250, so win or lose i am making a lot less than you!!Something doesn"t add up somewhere! Simple as ABC my Ar*e!
Sorry TAPK, Doesn’t £2000 x 9 = £18,000 profit? Or is this coz its betfair?
These maths things are tricky huh? And I count for a living! Think I’ll stick to Backing not Laying!
I’d like to ask all those that think Starluck is a good bet, what happened at Aintree?
Ground possibly?
I know he’s a bit to find on official ratings, but I see the horse as an improver who has trained on from last year. Judging by recent results the yards horses are in good nick too.
If either of the front two in the market don’t run up to their best (which is more than a possibility) then I think Starluck will be there waiting to pounce and take advantage.
I’m doing a Binocular/Starluck r/f/c…
Starluck was not the only Cheltenham novice to under perform at Aintree – Red Moloney, Pride of Dulcote, Weapons Amnesty etc, the Triumph was a hot race so I can find excuses for him, I would expect Binocular to win and probably because he has the most to lose, but I think Starluck looks a stronger animal but one that needs a canny jockey, this race is fascinating in regards to the Champion V Triumph form.
Fair enough. I know you are warming to the Fighting Fifth form….I just can’t shake the feeling that it’s moody.
It’s not so much the form itself. As you say it’s worth little and I wouldn’t entertain a notion that Sublimity will be the second best hurdler from that race this season. I just can’t forgive Binocular the flop at the price.
I’d like to ask all those that think Starluck is a good bet, what happened at Aintree? Wasn’t that the day he was going to confirm how much better he was than the result at Cheltenham?
For me his form is a stone or so below that of the first 2 in the betting and he’s too short and I still have reservations about what he’ll find off the bridle. He’s never yet won a race over jumps when he’s come off it.
I thought Starluck was a good bet for this at the 7-1 that was available (for about 4 mins) with a variety of smaller firms – not in a rush at 5-1
Aintree was just an off-day imo – every other run has suggested to me that this was a horse capable of winning a really good race on a speed track. The form in the book isn’t in the same league as Binocular, but then if it was – he wouldn’t be the price he is (or was).
Of the front two, I think Go Native has at least as good a chance as Binocular and if forced to have a bet at the current Betfair prices, 5-2 GN would be the best value.
Having burgled a bit of 13/2 with Hills (one of the smaller firms TDK) I agree that 5/1 is about right. For me it’s more of a trading bet as bar a fall or a seriously under par run I’m sure I can lay it back at under 2/1 in-running.
I’m not sure it’s a race I want to get involved in from a punting perspective, DJ, but with Cape Tribulation likely to ensure a decent gallop (and Straw Bear probably there to take over if he doesn’t), I’m expecting Binocular to reverse the moody Fighting Fifth form with Go Native.
Starluck has a bit to prove, and whilst he probably is a stone shy of what Binocular can achieve, I don’t think he has anything like as much to find with Go Native. If I do play, it will probably be the Binocular/Starluck forecast.
I’d go along with that.
I can see why peeps would consider Go Native as value compared TO Binny, but it’s do or die day for Henderson’s horse in terms of Champion credentials.
Zip
Don’t know where all green came from but it simply means all go for you……nothing can stop you winning.
Take Denman who I backed at 8/1 or 9 it would be on Betfair
Lets say I have 2000 pound on
He is currenly 3.25 to lay and I decide I want to cash in.
I don’t know if he will lose I don’t know if he will lose I don’t even know if he will turn up.
But I don’t have to know any of that.
2000 X 9 divided by the lay price tells me what stake I need to lay of to put me in an all green situation.
It’s just one of these mathematical caculations used by pro punters that always works out.
in this case 2,000 X 9 = 18,000 divided by the lay price of 3.25 = 5,538.46
So I lay 5538.46 x 3.25 your liability or possible loss is 5538.46 X 3.25 less 5538.46 (your lay stake) 12,461.54
So if he wins I win 2000 x 8 = 16,000 less your liability loss of 12,461.54 so you walk away with 3,538.46 clear profit
If he loses I win 5,538.46 less my original stake of 2000 which is 3,538.46 exactly the same amount as I would if he had won.
It may seem complicated but you can tell instantly how much to stake and exactly how much you will win.
When you use this calculation Stake X Price divided by lay price gives you your lay stake.
The calculation again was: 2,000 X 9 = 18,000 divided by the lay price of 3.25 = 5,538.46
If you deduct your stake 2000 from your lay stake 5,538.46 you know what you are going to win immediatly 3,538.46
Never fails and as simple as ABC.
If i play to the above figures Fist, my way, i have £2000 on at 9,that gives me £16000 profit if he wins,i can lay £4250 at 3.25 that would equal £13812.5,deduct that from £16000 and my profit becomes £2187.5 if he wins,if he loses i make a profit of £2250, so win or lose i am making a lot less than you!!Something doesn"t add up somewhere! Simple as ABC my Ar*e!
TAPK, if using Betfair the best way to do this is:
# Back the horse at x price
# When you come to lay the horse enter the price required and then click on PAYOUT which is next to Backers’ Stake. A little box will appear.
# Enter into the box the sum of your original stake you backed the horse for and your profit as shown by Betfair
# Click OK and Bob’s your uncle. Simples
Good luck all betting on this race. I’m looking forward to it but shall be keeping my money in my pocket…
Noel Meade talking about Go Native, along with the rest of his big guns over Christmas!
TAPK, if using Betfair the best way to do this is:
# Back the horse at x price
# When you come to lay the horse enter the price required and then click on PAYOUT which is next to Backers’ Stake. A little box will appear.
# Enter into the box the sum of your original stake you backed the horse for and your profit as shown by Betfair
# Click OK and Bob’s your uncle. SimplesGood luck all betting on this race. I’m looking forward to it but shall be keeping my money in my pocket…
Cheers Pompete,i will give this a try tomorrow!
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