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Interesting runner here, in Square Dalboni.
Apparently retained at 950000 Guineas at the sales last year, but now gelded (?!) so you’d think he would fit as a flea in any race he ran in, to start earning back the money?
The video of his last run, a listed race at Chantilly, is mightily impressive, albeit on much softer than he’ll face on Wednesday. He’s in to 9-2 already, but if he wasn’t a gelding I might have put a little bit on him for Epsom.
Could be a fascinating race.Was super impressed with Lambourn last time out and was hoping he’d be aimed at this. He’s my e/w derby bet.
I think he’ll win impressively.
“Interesting runner here, in Square Dalboni.
Apparently retained at 950000 Guineas at the sales last year, but now gelded (?!) so you’d think he would fit as a flea in any race he ran in, to start earning back the money?”Gelding by Zarak out of an Australia mare with Tiger Hill and Monsun in the pedigree…give him a Melbourne Cup entry and sell him for the dollah? Or if that fails sell him to one of Willie’s owners to be in the Triumph battalion next year.
Or win a Chester Vase and go from there?
Whatever his pedigree, his Chantilly win was impressive.Every winner from 2015 to 2022 went to OZ . Sir Dragonet the best Cox Plate and Tancred wins . Hans Holbein won a few races , both those have since died .
Young Rascal won the Manion and stayed in OZ but went no good after .
Youth Spirit is on inglis online regularly , last time early April sale went for few thousand to a stable in Taree north of Sydney, probably a few thousand too much for what he shows on track now but one win in bush will cover cost.
I always keep eye on this race with a view to Spring in OZ .Didn’t know so many of them ended up in Oz Helcat.
He was a rig hence the gelding (stable tour info nicked off talkinghorses forum, thank you TH)SQUARE D’ALBONI
He is a gelding so we have to campaign him with that in mind. He is another that will stay well and with the French premiums it means we will have a few of those races on the radar as well. Physically he has done well from two to three as he was quite a weak horse last year, but he has really bulked up. His form has wired out well as the horse he beat into fourth (Tajlina) in the Prix Isonomy has come out and won a Group Three which is good. He is a horse that I really like, but as he was a rig we had to geld him.I agree with Oscar. Square Dalbion was impressive enough to think he’ll be competitive here. Had progressive form already when running last time and that was just continuing the progression… Which gives hope he’ll act on this surface. Seemed to act well on good ground on his second start and does not have the pounding action of one who usually needs very soft ground. Is a big horse, type to go on improving for a while yet. That said, he’s made the running on his last 3 of 4 starts. Does he need to lead? Chester normally favours front runners, but both Furthur and Lazy Griff have also put up their best form when front running… And Ballydoyle second string Thrice could also encourage them to go too fast; for Lambourn to pick up the pieces. Although the booking of Buick for Thrice suggests he’s in there for his own sake. Anything over 4/1 imo worth taking a chance with Square Dalbion.
Value Is EverythingIf Faire La Nouba wins I’ll give up betting.
In my 100% book I go down to a 0.05% fair 2000/1 chance.
imo he has less than that.Value Is EverythingMy 100% Book:
Lambourn 35% 15/8
Square Dalboni 22% 7/2
Convergent 14% 6/1
Pinhole 11% 8/1
Thrice 6% 16/1
Further 6% 16/1
Lazy Griff 6% 16/1
Faire La Nouba worse than 0.05% greater than 2000/1I’ve backed Square Dalboni @ 5/1 and Lazy Griff @ 33/1
Charlie Johnston’s Lazy Griff seems unconsidered in the market, but has some of the best form on offer. Winning a French Group 3 a lot easier than the neck verdict indicates. By a Melbourne Cup winner so ahould be suited by a strongly run mile and a half this early in the season. Bit of a worry my two (and Thrice and Further) might cut each other’s throats and set it up for Lambourn, Convergent and Pinhole… But the odds imo make that worth risking. As does the chance Lazy Griff will need the outing (trainer’s horses generally have needed their first run but is capable of getting one ready for a target). Lambourn’s odds this morning were all about who his trainer is and the record of Ballydoyle horses in this particular race… But is getting back towards a backable saver price – Fingers crossed. Beckett second string Pinhole isn’t out of it. Well bred and bags of scope, impressive winner last time but that was only a Sothwell Class 5, so has to find quite a bit of improvement in one go. Ditto Furthur, who was quite impressive in winning what looked an ordinary Newbury maiden. Thrice has been blinkered on all starts and looked to have potential until made 11/8 favourite for a Group 3 on his final run at two. Didn’t seem in love with the game. Maybe he’ll be ok first time out, but his odds don’t look appetising.Value Is EverythingThanks green
Delighted with that and a brilliant ride from Moore as usual, keeping the horse from going to sleep.
I’m on at 100/1 & 66/1 for the Derby and he’s into 14s in places now.
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