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Every year we get the surprises, usually from the Mullins stable but not exclusively. Last year the biggest surprise was Vautour running in the Ryanair Chase which screwed up many of my multiple bets.
So what surprises lie in store for this year?
The biggest shake up will probably be in the Champion Hurdle if Faugheen and Annie Power are scratched. If they are then Yorkhill,Buveur Dair and Apples Jade may well switch race targets.
Who will you be backing if the top two are scratched? It is not beyond the realms of possibility that both are scratched and Altior jumps badly in his next chase……would he then switch to the Champion Hurdle.
Annie Power is now as large as 5/1 for Champion Hurdle and as low as 7/4 for the Mares Hurdle so the money suggests she will not defend her crown and take the easier option in which case she will probably be odds on. Since the markets suggest this is her target then the current best price of 7/2 is huge.
If Annie switches then Vroum Vroum Mag won’t run in the Mares Hurdle and more likely run in the Ryanair Chase which looks to be her ideal distance. So if you think Annie is going to switch then it would make speculative sense to double her up with Vroum Vroum Mag or have a single on Vroum Vroum Mag. There is a huge difference of opinion with the bookmakers on Vroum Vroum Mag in the Ryanair, she is 6/1 with Hills and 16/1 with Paddy Power.
Predicting who will run where really is like a game of chess, what are your thoughts?What makes you think either Annie or Faugheen will be scratched? Both horses are “working well at home”, according to Willie.
Obviously Faugheen is just back from injury so they want to make sure he’s 100% before he gets his season under way.
Annie never comes out before Xmas. The last time she was out before Xmas was 2013. Both will run before the festival. I predict one of the following will happen;
Case 1
Faugheen CH
Annie MH
Vroum Vroum WHCase 2
Annie CH
Vroum MH
Faugheen WHFaugheen has won over 3 miles in the past so will definitely get the trip. No Mare has ever won 2 Champion Hurdles so for Annie Power there is history to be made. The market seemed to be siding with case 1 but I reckon Case 2 is still a possibility.
Faugheen was entered in that 3 mile hurdle at Leopardstown (the one that Vroum Vroum Mag won) so that would make you think that maybe case 2 is the aim. He was pulled in the end because they thought he wasn’t quite ready.
The Irish Champion Hurdle is in 2 weeks at Loepardstown. Both have entries. If Faugheen gets the nod for that then its likely Annie will run in that same Mares race in February that she did last year and if that happens then case 1 is probably more likely.
Cant see any other combination than the 2 cases above. Willie has Un De Sceaux for the Ryan Air; maybe Black Hercules as well. He could also have Champagne Fever fit for it. He will want to win the Mares so you can expect Annie or Vroum Vroum to turn up there.
You’re definitely mentioning the right horse SP, as with the versatility of Vroum Vroum, she’s ripe for being the focal point of all the WPM switches.
I just had a hunch at the start of the season that she would go Champion Hurdle, and still feel that is where we’ll see her. Been chipping away at her for it all season. So difficult to second guess the yard, and I wouldn’t rule out Yorkhill ending up there either.
The other one that I can conceivably see going for The Champion Hurdle is Jezki.
I’ve got a few more that I can think, but they are the ones that sprung to mind when I seen the thread.
Can’t see VVM running in the Ryanair under any circumstances. Un de sceaux will be Mullins main horse for that in my opinion. And possibly black hercules.
Mullins in my opinion if all are fit and well will line out like this
CH- Faugheen
my – Annie
Wh – VVM, shaneshill, clondaw warrior
Cc- douvan
Ryanair- un de sceaux/BH
Gold cup – djakadamThe novices could end up any way
Case 1
Faugheen CH
Annie MH
Vroum Vroum WHPretty please
Triumph hurdle:
McManus has
Defi du seiul
Charli parcs
Landofhopeandglory
Housesofparliament
And possibly a couple more.
Hendo said last night charli parcs is a triumph horse but surely McManus will throw one into the supreme given he doesn’t have a notable contender and it seems pretty open?
I want to back charli parcs but I’m still not confident he goes triumph!I think Annie Power will run the CH, Faugheen in the stayers hurdle.
If both of the those two don’t make it then I would love to see Yorkhill re-routed to the Champion Hurdle (backed at 20’s and 16’s), and even more so Jezki at 130. Jezki goes Irish Champion Hurdle soon and if some of these market principals get sidelined it makes perfect sense for JH to drop him in here. I have always thought of him as older than he is – he is only 8! Enormous price for a horse who has been there done that and won 8 grade 1’s (6 over 2m).
VVM to go Ryanair Chase
I think it’s very much Case 2 right now in terms of if everything goes right. If one doesn’t make it though it’s all musical horses isn’t it. Be a brave man I think to bet that both AP and Faugheen will make it to the festival.
Absolutely no reason to suggest Annie wont make it. She has made the last 3 festivals so I don’t see why she’d miss this one. The question is over Faugheen and that will be answered in 2 weeks time.
Absolutely no reason to suggest Annie wont make it. She has made the last 3 festivals so I don’t see why she’d miss this one. The question is over Faugheen and that will be answered in 2 weeks time.
Summed up perfectly.
Annie Power + Faugheen both drifting for the Stayers Hurdle. Both recently matched at their peak prices, all while Vroum Vroum Mag’s price remains steady.
There must have been hundreds of pages written on these forums about which horses might switch and go to other targets not originally mooted
As I stated on here before I believed 99 percent of them would stick with their original targets
off the top of my head we have
Moon racer: Did switch from supreme to champion
BVD: Did switch from JLT to champion
Neon Wolf: Stayed with Neptune
Yorkhill: Was apparently according to some likely to go to arkle or champion but stayed with JLT
Vrooum Vrooum: Stayed with Mares
Ballyandy: Stayed with Supreme
Altoir: Like yorkhill was mooted as a possible for champion but stayed with original target, Arkle
Yanworth: Mooted as a possible for stayers but stayed with champion and now clear favourite
Probably others I haven’t mentioned. Perhaps in future we can dampen down the hype about how this horse might go for this race and this horse might go for that, as with a couple of exceptions it seems that most of them have stuck with their original targets?
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