- This topic has 48 replies, 20 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
Quote: from davidjohnson on 12:20 am on Mar. 16, 2007[br]State of Play doesn’t have a single piece of form to make him a single figure price for the Gold Cup. Any son of Hernando is surely a place lay in the Gold Cup on breeding only in any case! Not sure the race does have a good EW shape myself. Hard to see the second fav out the frame and difficult to see Kauto Star coming to grief as he isn’t a bad jumper really.
Betfair rumour that SOP is Pricewise…
State of Play is interesting and would be a logical Pricewise selection (relatively unexposed so possibly over-priced, one of PW’s standard methodologies).
The value for me has to be Exotic Dancer. I will be amazed if he is out of the first three (or first two even). Kauto is clearly the one to beat but with significant doubts about his jumping (he just never looks ‘safe’ regardless of his stats) and the knowledge that his stamina will be tested to the limit I couldn’t back him. They’ll almost certainly hunt him round, fencing carefully and deliberately, and creep into it as they approach the last mile. For me though I think FSL has it right, ED will be working hard at the business end and he’ll be very, very hard to beat.
Looking forward to it.
I’ll be very happy to see Kauto Star win after what has in my eyes been a dissapointing festival.
However i agree that they’re to many unknowns regarding jumping, ground, trip etc to back him at the current price.
I’ll be backing My Will each way at around 12/1. He’s a very consistant horse who at only seven years old could still be improving. He’s got some very useful form this season when carrying big weights in handicaps. The trip and ground are no problem for him and he’s a good jumper. (1 career fall) All in all he looks the ideal type to be placed and if Kauto fails to shine then i can see him winning.
FSL I agree with you but I still feel people are quick to judge as I was, therefore today after a lot of thinking in bed, I amk going to cover the bet with an each way bet on exotic dancer :biggrin:
Quote: from davidjohnson on 12:20 am on Mar. 16, 2007[br]State of Play doesn’t have a single piece of form to make him a single figure price for the Gold Cup. Any son of Hernando is surely a place lay in the Gold Cup on breeding only in any case! Not sure the race does have a good EW shape myself. Hard to see the second fav out the frame and difficult to see Kauto Star coming to grief as he isn’t a bad jumper really.<br>.<br>
<br>Lies, damn lies and breeding stats. SOP has won over the trip twice on soft ground, gave a reliable yardstick (Lacdoudal OR 152) a 16 length beating on dead at Aintree and in addition to that stern test of fencing on the sharp Mildmay course passed an altogether different stern jumping test with flying colours at Newbury. And handled an undulating track (Plumpton) with aplomb. Unexposed, genuine, progressive, young and versatile – qualities which scream ‘keep on the right side’.
I do hope you’re right about Kauto’s jumping; he’s certainly very clever at finding a leg after belting one, and betting aside I really want him to win this well and take his place amongst the genuine ‘greats’.
It doesn’t get any better than this
(Edited by Drone at 10:00 am on Mar. 16, 2007)
Quote: from Drone on 9:59 am on Mar. 16, 2007
gave a reliable yardstick (Lacdoudal OR 152) a 16 length beating on dead at Aintree
He was receiving just the 24 lbs from Lacdoudal that day.
I thought State of Play beat Juveigneur easily at Newbury with a bit in hand giving him 3 lbs. The fact that horse was a whisker away on Tuesday from winning, carrying a welter burden in a race where over the last 10 years anything carrying over 11 stone let alone 11 stone 9 has a very poor record, indicates State of Play’s form is good enough to be placed in this race. If he’s fit, primed and ready to do himself justice, he’s a great each way shot.
Well I have used my £25 free bet from the 4PP competition on Exotic Dancer with Betfred @ 9/2.
Cannot see State Of Play doing any better than 3rd.
I sense this could be one of those races where its hard to believe the winner went off at odds against
Hes a class above this lot
His real challenges could come next time around with MWDS and Denman
- Total Posts 17716
<br> Maybe today we’ll see why R Johnson gave FAIR ALONG such a conservative ride in the Arkle?;)
 Just a personal opinion but I suspect Kauto Star may be something of a flat track horse. <br>  I realise that he has won at Sandown, but apart from the uphill finish that is basically a flat course.<br>  I think the undulations of Cheltenham over the whole of the course may tend to find him out. Afterall he fell here in the QM chase and I would not be supprised to see it happen again. <br>  I don’t think this in any way detracts from his overall brilliance as racing needs a super horse that actually races over an entire season, instead of a couple of times a season.<br>  As I said just a personal opinion and I shall bet accordingly.
Very impressive performance from Katchit. Couldn’t back it as I just didn’t think it could improve again but did it very nicely.
That 6/1 this morning for Thornton to be top jock could be looking generous now.
Katchit was mightily impressive as was Wichita Lineman. Black Harry’s fall looked horrible, I’ll be amazed if he hasn’t broken his neck. Poor thing.
Black Harry is up and OK thank god. Amazing because he seemed to go over and screw on his neck. Obviously looked far worse than it was. :cheesy:
Wichita keeps the Ocean Finance people away but could have been better. Woke up thinking Katchit would get me off to a flyer but ended up plumping for Degas Art under the impression that King’s would have already shown his best form – how wrong could I have been – very nice performance.
Great to get just the 3rd winner of the week though.
Follow up by AP in the next and then Whyso Mayo and wont be far off even for the week.
Not asking for much ;)
Lee
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.