March 15, 2007 at 19:52 #1138
I am not usually one for steaming into short priced favourites, though Well Chief and Gungadu have proved costly exceptions to the rule, and with those failures in mind I have taken on Kauto Star with Exotic Dancer. According to the form book this is a bad decision as Kauto Star has already thumped Exotic Dancer. However I think there are a few compelling reasons why the from can be reversed.
1) Horses for courses – Exotic Dancer seems to run its heart out at Cheltenham, and we know that it acts and jumps well there. We do no know these things about the favourite.
2) Going going….. Gone. If Kauto Star makes a mistake he is unlikely to get away with it. We have already seen Cailan Aliann, Don’t Push It, Well Chief and Black Jack Ketchum fall this festival, and this to me just enforces the view that Kauto Star is going to be vulnerable to a concentration lapse. The fences are not the most forgiving, and we saw what happened when it walks through a fence at Cheltenham last year. The horse had no chance. I know that people have quickly reushed to say Kauto Star is a sound jumper and gives his fences air and hasn’t fallen this season, but it will only take one lapse and that will be it, and it has made one lapse a race every race this season.
3) That hill looks very big! With the petrol monitor flickering between low and empty the long Cheltenham hill to the winning post awaits Kauto Star. If the horse has cruised to the front I wouldn’t be convinced it is over as lets not forget this horse was trained as a 2m chaser, who thrashed this years Champion Chase winner. Sure he is an extremely classy animal, but I don’t think his stamina is guaranteed. Exotic Dancer will be closing on the leader late and if the pace is a generous one horses like Halcon Genelardais, Cane Brake and even old Beefy could be coming up the hill to good effect. Whether Kauto Star will keep galloping right to the line is something I have my doubts about.
4) Stick ’em up! We saw what happened when Black Jack Ketchum got into a fight 2 runs ago. He got hammered. Is it possible that Kauto Star might not relsih a fight? I know he fended off L’Ami on the urn to the line last time, but L’Ami is a horse McCoy described as "a high class handicapper" and one that had been pushed along for the mile previous to the final fence.
5) If I keep eating my food maybe I will grow big and strong! – Okay a little abstract, but Exotic Dancer has made rapid improvement this season, and is very lightly raced over fences. I think it is likely there is improvement to come from Exotic Dancer, but I am not sure if that is the case with Kauto Star.
So to summarise, Kauto Star is 13/8 Exotic Dancer is 5/1. If Exotic Dancer is out of the top 3 I will be devastated, I feel exactly the same way as i felt about Inglis Drever today; it will run its heart out and be up there at the last. I really cannot see anything else getting into this, but something at a big price will plug on into the places I have no doubt.
Good luck peeps I know where my moeny is going
ps In the triumph I still fancy Degas Art to run a massive race.March 15, 2007 at 19:59 #46550DannyMember
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Monkerhostin E.W in the Gold Cup. Kauto will win IF he jumps around. One which i think has a big chance tommorow is Sporazene 25/1 in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Handicap Chase :biggrin: .March 15, 2007 at 20:05 #46551dave 22Member
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with this years festival record, i will be amazed if kauto star gets round. <br>i agree danny with monkerhostin e/w. although i would also question sporazenes jumping at speedMarch 15, 2007 at 20:08 #46553
Danny don’t see we didn’t warn you when Sporazene fails to complete the course. Good luck, yer gonna need it lol.
Monkerhostin could sneak into a place at big odds, couldn’t see it winning though.March 15, 2007 at 20:18 #46556Young MickMember
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I know you say these things about Kauto but be fair, even though he has made mistakes jumping, at no point did he look like falling, he always lands on his feet. Also Exotic Dancer hit one hard in the king george if I remember so you can’t count on him to stay up the whole way around. I also watched the Aon Chase when he had a battle with L’Ami and he was behind for a short time but he responded to Ruby and won the race. Finally Ruby himself said he believes Kauto will stay the distance as he tanked the whole race. Rant over lol I just have a lot riding on him tomorrow and I only ever see negative articles. The only positive ones are from the trainer and the owner.. who should surely know him best…
(Edited by Young Mick at 9:19 pm on Mar. 15, 2007)March 15, 2007 at 20:24 #46558AnonymousInactive
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The only thing that will turn Kauto Star over is himself.<br>Imo, his jumping will be better on this faster ground, and he will also be better for the faster pace this race should generate.<br>I agree that Exotic Dancer is the only other horse with Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â a serious chance, but would suggest to his supporters that they at least cover themselves with a forecast, because if KS does stand up, it should be an absolute procession, and a laydown 1-2.March 15, 2007 at 20:28 #46560joaaciParticipant
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I don’t think Kauto Star is at a strong risk of falling, and obviously is a deserving favourite. However, the debates, doubts and discussions since his two final fence blunders have meant that everyone is looking forward to the race more than ever.
The hype surrounding the horse – whether positive or negative has helped to add to the excitement.
I have Exotic Dancer and The Listener though…March 15, 2007 at 20:31 #46561dave 22Member
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the thing im more worried about than him falling is that he may have reached his peak for the tingle creek and king george. to me, he didnt look the same horse in the aon, hopefully because nicholls didnt have him fully wound up, but at the back of my mind im worried that 5 wins, at the top level, for a previously lightly raced 7 year old, who isnt exactly built like a staying chaser, might just have taken its toll. <br>i will be taking him onMarch 15, 2007 at 20:34 #46562
Young Mick perhaps my post is a little misinterpretated.
Kauto Star is a fantastic horse. It is a future hall of famer who has proved his effectiveness over a variety of distances. He is more than likely the best horse in the field.
But with today’s conditions and today’s prices I would much sooner back Exotic Dancer e/w rather than Kauto Star win only.March 15, 2007 at 20:35 #46563DannyMember
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can anyone who lives in cheltenham tell us what the weather is like currently. (if it doesn’t rain the Listener is probably out – he would be a major contender aswell)March 15, 2007 at 20:51 #46564DroneParticipant
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The GC looks to have a fair EW shape to it with Kauto Star (drift tomorrow?) likely to win or be unplaced i.e.fall/fail to stay. State of Play who left a lasting impression when winning at Newbury and Aintree is unexposed, off a break, top trainer back in the winners’ and who has an under-rated sound jock up would be my choice, at the odds, to run a place
Hope KS routs ’em and I’d bet him to do so at 2/1March 15, 2007 at 21:18 #46565FlashMember
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FSL I refuse to say a thing as I’ve already decided I’m jinxed at this meeting so don’t want to tempt fate any further. ;)
Except – Bold / stupid prediction (delete as appropriate) :
Kauto Star won’t stay.March 15, 2007 at 21:58 #46566AnzumMember
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After watching Juveigneurs superb run on Tuesday under a welter weight, it has strengthened the form and the manner of state of play’s Hennessy victory. For me, especially with Williams horses back in form, State of Play is extremely good value and I shall be opposing the front two in the market as they both have doubts. Kauto Star’s potential fallacies have been well documented. I’m not exactly 100% confident that Exotic Dancer will gallop all the way up the hill over this longer trip. Although I do think he will be placed.
Degas Art the selection in the Triumph, stable back in form which is encouraging. Great each way chance at around 10/1.
Saintsaire has been aimed at this week, and it is interesting to note Nicholls left Sporazene in this race, allowing Saintsaire to carry a featherweight 10 stone 2. Therefore has to have a big chance.
Finally, for me the banker of the meeting WHYSO MAYO will romp home in the foxhunters.March 15, 2007 at 22:01 #46567FlashMember
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Is anyone else concerned about State Of Play’s stamina at this level? Just seemed to be flattenning out after the last in the Hennessy.
He’s got quite a bit to find on form but he’s unexposed and improving so its not impossible to see him winning.March 15, 2007 at 23:20 #46568davidjohnsonMember
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State of Play doesn’t have a single piece of form to make him a single figure price for the Gold Cup. Any son of Hernando is surely a place lay in the Gold Cup on breeding only in any case! Not sure the race does have a good EW shape myself. Hard to see the second fav out the frame and difficult to see Kauto Star coming to grief as he isn’t a bad jumper really.
Best bet of the day looks like Hasty Prince in the Grand Annual. Still on a fair mark on hurdles form and last 2 runs in chases have suggested his jumping will hold up much better than it would have this time last year. His second to Dempsey at Sandown last time doesn’t look too bad now either.
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