Cheltenham Bets 2018

[Venture to Cognac]

Always a good sign when you’re back in the fold Rocky, means the jumpers are on the way back.

Best of luck with all your Ante-Posts this year, and hope it’s a good one for you.

PS….do you want me to merge your other 2 threads?

[rocky91]

Thankyou and yes please vtc I’m not sure what happened. I must have pressed the wrong button lol.

[atthepost]

I have done a few multiple combinations. Just small stakes lucky 15s & 31s. These are the horses I fancy

ARKLE- Petit Mouchoir 16/1 & Tombstone 33/1

SUPREME- Samcro 20/1

NEPTUNE- Blow by blow & Samcro 20/1

CHAMPION HURDLE- Buveur dair 4/1

Mares- Apple Jade 3/1 & Augusta Kate 14/1

World hurdle- Nichols canyon 7/1 & apples jade 14/1

JLT- Finians oscar 12/1

GOLD CUP- Douvan & Our duke 12/1

X country- cause of causes 9/1

[charlie87]

Couple of quid (literally) on the following for the GC:

Un Temps Pour Tout 500’s
Bellshill 400’s
Saphir Du Rheu 350’s
Valseur Lido 180’s
Blaklion 200’s
Don Poli 300’s
Cause of Causes 380’s

[befair]

charlie87 wrote:

Saphir Du Rheu 350’s

Good price for Saphir Du Rheu; wasn’t that far behind in GC, may be improvement to come

[charlie87]

Cheers pal. Never been a fan of Saphir Du Rheu – a ‘nearly horse’ if ever there was one, but as you say he wasn’t that far behind in GC and if improvement does come then he could go well again. PN thinks very highly of SDR – although he talks about every horse like they’re the next Kauto Star!

[FrankieMac]

Daft question alert – anyone have thoughts on whether Charbel is likely to be aimed at the CC or the Ryanair?

I’m still not totally convinced Altior would have had him beat in the Arkle and see no reason why connections would look to avoid Altior or Douvan in favour of going up in trip. Though the AP odds would suggest that is believed to be the aim…

[charlie87]

Not a daft question at all and I’m not too sure. He is 50’s for the CC and 38 for the Ryanair on the BE, so maybe worth taking a small position on both

[FrankieMac]

Thanks Charlie, only just started tentatively dabbling on the exchanges – will have a look

[rocky91]

With the sad news about Neon wolf.
I have placed my 1st bets.

Yanworth jlt 10/1
Finians Oscar jlt 10/1.
I was considering backing all 3 win neon wolf included when finians Oscar was 12s. But now being able to back them both at 10s with neon wolf unfortunately not running. Is a great opportunity imo. Both 99% go chasing. And both the horses optimum distance imo.

Melon 16s arkle.
Unrelated but I could see them trimming the price with neon wolf now out and 16s very fair imo

[rocky91]

Half the stake of the jlt.
On finians Oscar arkle 20/1

[rocky91]

Added SAMCRO at 14/1 to win any race.
I’d be leaning towards Neptune, however the Albert Bartlett would be very possible.
If somehow he doesn’t reach the very top level, you have the fall back of a bet on the martin pipe or coral cup depending on his mark.

He looks top class and what you would hope him to be for the money they paid out. Definitely a novice to look forward to this season.

And forbid a setback maybe even still a live chance with the champion bumper.

[rocky91]

Stayers hurdle.
Nichols canyon 7/1
Uknowhatimeanharry 9/1
Backed both.

A league above the rest and both sound.

Penhill is out for atleast 6 months after suffering an injury in preparation for the Melbourne cup and the owner doesn’t fill you with any optimism of a return soon.
Lami serge needs very soft ground.

I don’t rate the world’s end personally and nobody knows what would have happened in the Bartlett and it was hardly a facile win at Aintree against limited opposition.
Yanworth and finians oscar go novice chasing
Apple’s jade will stay down the mares route

If im really trying to look there’s only wholestone and mega fortune i could see out of the opposition that could have some sort of chance of progressing.

So I think the market leaders are definitely over priced.

[rocky91]

Every year I also out a few quid on arctic fire at treble figure odds for this on the exchanges. His only try at 3m on heavy I would completely write off, and the way he finishes off every race really interests me yo see if he could do it over this trip.

[rocky91]

Added annamix supreme 20/1.
Got at 25s in a few multiples.

The form is poor.
But so was vautour’s behind black river.

A complete chance that it’s mullins supreme horse
mullins and rich ricci bought from Gulluime macaire the same as vautour and was very green on his only start, tenderly handled until the finish where he came 2nd with a view to keeping his novice status. Hes been in mullins yard for wellover a year so I’m sure he has had plenty of schooling.

I have Been waiting to see what the market said before playing and the gamble has started today. Paddy power/ Betfair cut from 20s to 14s.and like min it’s the time of year when they run the schooling hurdles and a supreme gamble starts.

I expect annamix to bolt up in a poor maiden hurdle at long odds on then go to single figures so I’ll have a speculative play now on something that will shorten up rather than being value.

[rocky91]

To win any race.

Debuchet 12/1
Likely supreme. Last one of the bridle in the champion bumper and has followed up since

Red jack 16/1. (Likely neptune)
Beat debuchet on debut with
le richenbourg back in 3rd before being purchased by jp mcmanus and has followed up since.

The best 2 bumper horses in the land imo.

To win any race 12/1
Petit mouchoir.

Goes novice chasing, I would have thought he had arkle written all over him, however Michael oleary thinks he now settles far better and is a 3 mile chase prospect. Which I originally thought after his point to point and sales bumper wins. I’d personally fancy him from the front in an arkle. But where ever he goes i’d want him on side, apart from finians Oscar and the ill fated neon wolf, it looked a poor crop of novices to me last season, and petit mouchoir is bred for the job.

If for what ever reason he diddnt take to chasing, he’s still open to improvement over hurdles especially with a clear round.

Antepost bets in total.

Stayers hurdle
Nichols canyon 7/1
Uknowhatimeanharry 9/1

Novice chasers

Arkle
Finians Oscar 20/1
Melon 16/1(caution could stay hurdling)

Jlt
yanworth 10/1
Finians Oscar 10/1

Petit mouchoir 12/1 any race.

Novice hurdlers.

Samcro 14/1 any race
Annamix supreme 25/1 20/1
Debuchet 12s any race.
Red jack 16s any race.

[Venture to Cognac]

Good luck with them Rocky.

I particularly like the Samcro & Red Jack bets. Not my favourite kind of bet by any stretch, but if I was do a couple this season, then the pair of them look as good as any.

I’ve already bet Le Richebourg for The Supreme, but well aware of that race where Debuchet, and especially Red Jack, got the better of him. Both these 2 could be very good indeed, and Red Jack could in fact be something special.

I’m a massive fan of Samcro, and I’ve actually bet him for The Champion Hurdle, as I think, potentially, he could make massive progression this year. That will almost certainly be money down the pan, but I thought it worth a try. I’d slightly favour The Supreme, of the more sensible/realistic options, but wherever he goes, looking forward to seeing him back out.

Although I had bet Petit Mouchoir at huge odds for The Champion Hurdle last year, I actually always thought of him as a potential staying chaser, and I can see him going up a fair bit in distance. Time will tell.

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